Basically, there is a very good chance that Franken actually won the election (We need to be clear in our terminology. Franken would not win the “recount,” as that is not a separate contest. If the canvassing procedure or the recount results in a Franken lead, it means he won the election on November 4th.)
As with most things posted on Fivethirtyeight, this post is a must read.
Nate silver is the most savvy electoral number cruncher in the biz. This article is a great read.
Also see my precinct-level analysis here.
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Great article. It says what I was thinking but didn’t ahve the time or the know-how to express.
Franken ends up winning by way more than Coleman’s present lead, probably 500 plus votes…
Yes, If you combine the 538 and bitwise statistics, Al is the prohibitive favorite.
Coleman’s only real chance is to get the courts to order a new vote.
But, of course, he has no grounds.