The always wonderful FiveThirtyEight.com did some quick analysis on the numbers that came in last night (emphasis mine):
Minnesota reports that it has thus far re-counted 15.49 percent of its ballots. If the first day’s results are indicative of the pace that the candidates will maintain throughout the recount process, Franken would gain a net of 278 votes over Colmean, giving him a narrow victory. For any number of reasons, however, the results reported thus far may not be indicative of future trends.
Moreover (his numbers are already dated here, the Strib reports Coleman challenging 146 and Franken 123):
Coleman has thus far challenged 115 ballots and Franken 106. However, based on local reports, many or perhaps most of the challenges are frivolous, and are unlikely to be upheld upon review. Thus, the candidate who has challenged fewer ballots probably stands to gain ground once such challenges are adjudicated.
This is the first time I’ve seen reports of challenges being frivolous, but it’s interesting if true. Nate cautions, however, that the results from last night may be misleading for a variety of reasons; the most significant of which may be the fact that St. Louis County uses machines that are older as compared to the rest of the State that are more prone to error and the areas most affected are highly Democratic. And then there are factors that suggest these results could be under-representative of Franken’s possible gains statewide:
On the other hand, the precincts that were re-counted today were slightly redder than average, having favored Coleman by an aggregate of 3.3 points during the initial count. No votes have yet been re-counted in Minneapolis (out of more than 200,000 cast), although about 43,000 have been recounted in St. Paul (out of around 140,000 cast on Election Day). Another city which has not yet reported any results is Duluth, traditionally a Democratic stronghold.
The bottom line is that nothing can be said for certain right now (when will that stop being the case!?), but let’s hope that the good news for Franken keeps coming in over these next few days…
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Matt - We Republicans have accepted the fact that the Franken campaign will continue to fight until Franken is in the lead. Even if the hand recount shows Coleman leading, Franken will look for more votes. Franken will end up being our Senator.
How sad that a state which has been known for solid leadership from both sides of the aisle - is now the state of Ventura and Franken. Tragic.
OK Come On-Step up. Tell us what evidence there is that anything improper is going on with this recount. I have HAD IT with Coleman supporters saying this kind of crap over and over again.
Is it your contention that if the recount shows Franken with more votes it will not be legitimate? If so, please explain.
The Franken and Ventura comparison was tiresome years ago. I have grave reservations about the intelligence of anyone who honestly thinks there’s some level of parity beyond a show-business past for both men.
Come on. Jesse attended North Minneapolis Communit college, and Franken graduated Summa cum laude from Harvard. The similarities are astounding.
If “we Republicans” as a group have “accepted the fact” that Franken will keep going until he wins, why doesn’t Norm (one such Republican) spare us the expense of a recount and simply concede (as he requested Franken do in early November)? Oh wait — they haven’t actually “accepted” anything at all, they just want to whine now IN CASE they lose later….I get it now.
Having a whine tasting are we?
HM - did Norm ask the three state GOPer candidates to toss in the towell, too?
Of course not.
Norm only asked Al to toss in the towell; he was mum on the subject of the three state GOPers behind in the count.
That’s the problem with GOPers these days; they want it both ways.
If the hand recount comes up short for Franken, I believe he will continue to fight in the courts. If he fails in the courts, he will continue the fight in the US Senate. If Coleman comes up short in the recount, I don’t believe he will litigate this. Time will either prove me wrong or right.
Hmmm. Well, Norm is famously reluctant to litigate, isn’t he?
Exactly Chet! Norm has been sue happy for a long time-witness his habit of hitting his opponents with frivolous suits right before the election.