The results for the day are up and 42.33% of the ballots have been counted — almost half way there (although one assumes that the second half will take longer).
The Star Tribune currently has the recount showing Coleman ahead by a scant 136 votes (this, of course, is the pre-recount number adjusted by the recount results). I’m not 100% sure if their tally is using the latest data just put up, but I think it is.
My numbers (and to be honest I’m not sure I’m using the SoS data correctly) show a slightly different margin. Balancing Coleman’s pre-recount total and his ballots recounted (534687-534475) shows him having lost 212 ballots from the recount so far. Meanwhile, doing the same for Franken (494930-494804) shows him losing 126 ballots. Taking these two (212-126) means that Franken has gained 86 ballots over Coleman, which means the recount adjusted margin is (215-86) 129 votes. The Strib uses data they’ve collected as well, so they’re probably right, but I just wanted to check with everyone out there that I’m doing my math right.
And just for the sake of throwing irresponsibly oversimplified calculations into the mix, if the current rate of overturned ballots held exactly at pace (86/.4233) Coleman ends up winning by 12 votes (215-203). The only reason I even throw that grossly unrepresentative calculation out there is because 734 ballots have been challenged already… I think it’s safe to say that no matter how much the pace changes, the margin will be smaller than the number of ballots challenged, which means the whole situation is liable to change right at the finish line.
Either way, this is getting interesting…
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Any news on the absentee ballots?
you also have to remember that more Nov. 4 ballots have been counted that favor Colemen. (534k to 494k) so the 12 vote number would be off by %8.
you also have to remember that more Nov. 4 ballots have been counted that favor Colemen. (534k to 494k) so the 12 vote number would be off by %8, or Franken up by 4 votes.
Heres hoping for a tie. Settle it with a 5 card draw, coin flips are anti climatic.
A tie goes to the US Senate… presently a Democratic majority with a simple majority needed. And should old New York Norm win this thing all you have to do is offer him some money and power… poof he becomes a Lieberman Republican version.
(I’m secretly hoping Norm the Weasel gets a chance to show his opportunistic colors that way and then is still thrown out of the Senate on ethics charges. To quote someone, “A girl can dream can’t she…”)
The funny thing is that the first day of the recount, Norm lost 41 votes with 18% counted. If you extended that math out, Al would have won by the same 12 votes. We need to find the six fickle voters responsible and tell them to make up their minds. ;)
Both sides are way over the top in this process and MNPublius is leading the way on our side. There is really no reason to get all breathy and pronounce near victory every time 5 or 6 votes change. If this were the day before election day and the histrionics could turn out a few additional voters, then go for it. But the voting is OVER. Instead of press releases about how confident we are, can’t both sides just tell the truth and say “Naturally we’re holding our breath but we’ll just wait and see how this turns out and hope for the best.” Try and calm down a little.
On another matter, on behalf of Democrats everywhere, I move theat we concede the LIZARD PEOPLE ballot. Clearly it’s a vote for Norm.
So tell me something…. if Norm’s original 215 vote lead was statistically insignificant, how statistically significant would a Franken 35 ballot win be?