As Norm Coleman takes the Bush Florida ‘00 playbook and runs with it, his surrogates have been trying to inject some doubt about the legitimacy of “changing” election totals reported by the Secretary of State. But as Coleman well knows, the Secretary of State, pursuant to Minnesota law, doesn’t officially report any election results until the statewide canvass is completed and the official tally can be reported. That’s why the Secretary of State results website explicitly says “ UNOFFICIAL AND INCOMPLETE RESULTS” (they put it in all caps bold, not me) in the upper right corner — because they are by law unofficial until the canvass is complete.
This is an important and crucial part of the election certification process and has been for decades in Minnesota. Which is why I said above that Coleman “well knows” that these tallies change, because in his 2002 race the unofficial tally on election day gave him 8,920 votes more than the final total after canvass did. Did Coleman kick and scream and threaten to take his ball and go home then? No, he won so he actually complied with the law… In fact, the election day totals almost always vary immensely from the final, official results. Klobuchar gained 2,854 votes, Pawlenty lost 1,375, and Swanson gained an amazing 23,059! The tallies not changing would be the unusual scenario. Of course Coleman knows this, it’s just that in this case it’s beneficial for him to pretend this is an anomaly.
Which brings me to the point that will surely have Coleman and his surrogates feigning outrage. Guess which County’s Canvassing Board hasn’t reported yet? That’s right, Hennepin County — it’s supposed to report today. This makes it completely possible that by the end of the day today, the unofficial tally will be +Franken. Of course, it’s also possible that Coleman will gain votes, just don’t expect him to throw his arms in the air if that happens.
The State Canvassing Board reports the final official tally (I believe) on November 19th after all the Counties have reported. Then the recount is triggered by state law, due to the margin of less than .5%. That’s a whole ‘nuther complex process, but Ritchie hopes to have a final result by December 19th. Is that date wishful thinking? Who knows, but if Ritchie manages to make that date, here’s hoping that Team Franken ends the year with an amazing Christmas present.
Nate Silver has written an in-depth analysis of Franken’s chances.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/frankens-odds-of-winning-recount-may-be.html
If Hennepin county updates their numbers in Franken’s favor, this would be a huge boon to him.
Lest we forget the Brooks Brothers Riot at the Miami-Dade County courthouse that blocked
the accurate tabulation of votes for Al Gore:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A31074-2005Jan23.html
Given the parallels, we should be quick to realize the importance if similar tactics are
used here.
I’ve always wondered what the conversation was like, between the Dade County Sheriff
and the BushCo people. The one that led to the Sheriff’s refusal to keep his own
courthouse quiet enough for people to get their work done. As I recall, his next
job was a single term as a Republican congressman for Dade County.
Not that there are any possible parallels here in good old Minnesota, what with
Republican Sheriffs in both Hennepin and Ramsey Counties. Nor was there any hint
of partisan activity by either Sheriff within the past month or so, RNC-related actions notwithstanding…
Have St Louis and ramsey countys reported yet?
I don’t follow fivethirtyeight regularly so thanks for the tip - good piece.
204 now.
Fascinating article.
I personally think that many of the undervotes will stand after the recount. The fact is that Obama got so many new voters out on election day. They were people not into politics but felt that they wanted to go vote for this man. So they show up, vote for Obama, and then submit their ballot. Is it conceivable to think that many of them didn’t even look at a downticket race? Absolutely.
As an election judge I’m not thinking that the vote change will be occurring based on undervotes but on spoiled ballots. In our precinct (only one of 4,138 statewide), we had 2 spoiled ballots. One was an absentee ballot returned that could not be read on our machine as the incorrect ballot had been sent to the voter. It went back to the city election supervisor for processing. Another was an absentee ballot sent to our precinct by the city where the voter was not registered in our precinct. It, too, was returned to the city election supervisor. After collecting all of the “spoiled” ballots from all of the precincts the process begins to match the absentee ballots up with the correct precincts and the correct voter rolls to ensure that the voter didn’t vote in person and to notate the rolls properly that the absentee ballot was received and then process it. Additionally, any other spoiled ballots will be verified to check which precinct ballot the voter should have received and process those ballots accordingly. The process is labor intensive and time consuming - that’s why they have more than a week to process these spoiled ballots and update the totals before certifying. As nefarious as the GOP wants this to be, it is the process - has been for years - and there’s nothing wrong with it.
I think that West Metro Dem is correct but has some terminology wrong. “Spoiled” ballots are ones where the voter has made a mistake and wants another ballot to fill out correctly. These obviously wouldn’t be counted. “Rejected” ballots are part of the absentee process — not on the roster, incorrect precinct, etc. — and is what the post refers to.
A friend of mine made mention of her dilemna when she voted at her local precinct in Linden Hills. In the rush of people voting everywhere outside of the booth at her precinct, she accidently saw a person voting w/ check offs instead of filling the oval. She did not know if she should tell the voter that she accidently glanced at the voter’s ballot or what? She decided to tell the judge handing out the ballots maybe they might want to make mention of filling in the ovals, the judge curtly told her there is a sign and they dont have to tell anyone verbally how to fill out the ballot. My friend was not satisfied so she sought out the head judge and told her about her observation and maybe she should intervene. The judge said no, the ballot would be rejected by the machine. The voter in question was an older black woman. As far as we know her ballot was accepted. P.s I was told by a very good source there are Coleman people sitting in their cars outside metropolitian city halls for several days now, why?
Mpls election judge may be right. I was part of the process processing absentee ballots but didn’t see which envelope they were put in. Needless to say these would be processed later - if appropriate. That alone will account for a goodly number of ballots to come in before results are certified. We can’t be the only precinct out of the over 4000 precincts that had ballots that couldn’t be processed that night.
Coleman cannot possibly pull of a Florida style fix.
The ultimate arbiter here is the Senate, not the Supreme Court. No recount, no seat, end of story. Coleman can whine and cry and scream as much as his likes but it does not change anything. The rules require a recount and either there will be a recount or the result will be invalidated.