Monthly Archive for November, 2008

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Ellison/Walz Omnibus Post

Keith Ellison and Tim Walz are both attempting to enter House leadership positions. First, Ellison:

Liberals are hailing a three-way fight to lead the Congressional Progressive Caucus as a sign of the growing influence of the Democratic left on Capitol Hill…

Reps. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) and Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) are both challenging incumbent Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D-Calif.).

Looks like it might be an uphill fight for Keith, as Grijalva and Woolsey are both more senior members. If, however, Keith does succeed in winning the chair, it looks like it’ll be a pretty influential position:

But this year nine of the 13 candidates the caucus supported won election, and its membership is expected to grow to 80 members. In addition, Democrats will control both ends of the Capitol with sizable majorities, and the White House will be occupied by a Democrat with a liberal voting record.

“The progressive caucus is on the map now,” Woolsey said in an interview. “We just want to make sure our new president and vice president keep in mind who we consider to be the base of our party.”

We’re rooting for you Keith!

As for Tim Walz, he isn’t so much “attempting” to win a leadership position, he’s already won one:

Rep. Tim Walz of Mankato, fresh off his re-election to a second term, agreed to serve as a Midwest regional Democratic whip after being drafted by five committee chairmen for the post, his spokeswoman said.

Before joining the Tuesday’s meeting of Democratic lawmakers from seven states, Walz said he was not seeking any leadership post for the upcoming 111th Congress. But that was before he was urged to accept the job by the two Minnesota committee chairs, Agriculture Chairman Collin Peterson of Detroit Lakes and Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman Jim Oberstar of Chisholm. They were joined by Appropriations Chairman David Obey of Wisconsin and the Michigan duo of Energy and Commerce Chairman John Dingell and Judiciary Chairman John Conyers.

“They felt they needed a moderate voice at the table in the whip organization,” said Meredith Salsbery, Walz’s press secretary. Walz will join the team of House Whip James Clyburn, D-S.C. , third in rank under Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland. They were easily re-elected by the newly expanded Democratic caucus during a closed-door meeting on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.

What does this mean for Walz’s gubernatorial prospects? Probably not much. You could see this as a sign that Walz plans on staying in Congress, or you could just see it as a smart move by a politician who is keeping his options open.

In other Walz news, the Congressman is apparently supporting John Dingell bid to remain Chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. That’s too bad. Dingell is too close to the auto industry and has been less than friendly to attempts to fight global warming.

A hat tip to Bluestem Prairie on both Walz stories.

State Canvassing Board Declares “No Winner”; Agrees to Consider Absentee Ballots

As the recount gets underway today, it’s important to restate that the State Canvassing Board yesterday clearly declared that there is no certified winner in the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota given the incredibly small margin of .007%.  Ritchie’s quote on the matter:

Candidates can say anything.  Minnesota law is very clear that any election within a half a percent is not known until the completion of the recount.

Moreover, the Coleman talking point that Franken was trying to delay the start of the election was quickly discredited when Justice G. Barry Anderson stated that consideration of the Franken campaign’s briefs would not delay the recount and, indeed, it began on time today.

Importantly, the board also agreed that the Franken’s plea to consider every properly cast vote, including improperly rejected absentee ballots, will be considered.  The Franken campaign has the benefit of being on the right side of this issue: they’re merely requesting and attempting to ensure that every properly cast vote is count.  Democracy?  Pshh, that went out of style with Nixon.

So, with all this information bouncing around.  What do you think will be the outcome of this craziness?  2 polls, one to get a simple count (without the discount of complex answers) and another to assess people’s view of the process. I can’t get both polls working at the same time for some crazy (frustrating!) reason, so the one’s going to have to suffice:

More detail: what’s going to happen?

View Results

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IT BEGINS!

Well folks, the recount is officially underway at 100 sites across the state. And while there may be great uncertainty about the result of this process, there is certainly no shortage of writings on it! So, here’s a quick round-up:

  • Strib: “The contentious fight for a U.S. Senate seat between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken moved into the recount phase this morning as election workers across Minnesota started retabulating more than 2.9 million ballots — one by one.”The recount is being carried out in more than 100 sites across Minnesota. It is required under state law because the votes cast for Coleman and Franken differed by less than 0.5 percent. Coleman’s 215-vote lead heading into the recount translates to 0.008 percent.”
  • PiPress Ritchie Profile: “When he talks about his job, Ritchie calls himself a steward of the processes put in place before him. “It’s hard to escape the historical legacy of the post: The hallway leading to Ritchie’s office is lined with leather-bound tomes of state legislation on one side and 21 framed images on the other — one for each secretary of state since 1858.”“The real infrastructure in all of this is state law,” he said. “We have 100 years’ experience of voting on ballots, 35 years of specific experience with voter registration and same-day registration.”“
  • PiPress: Recount will be a highly regulated affair: Every detail is carefully spelled out and waiting for the ballot counters to get to work
  • HuffPo: “Franken is pressing to include absentee ballots his campaign says were rejected on technicalities. Campaign lawyer David Lillehaug argued the board has the power to add them to the count.”“They have a right to have official mistakes corrected and their votes counted. Not later, but now,” he said of voters in that situation. “This board has the full authority, and indeed we submit, the obligation to do exactly that.”“
  • MPR: Voters Worried About Absentee Ballots Being Counted: “The battle over rejected absentee ballots is sparking questions in the minds of some Minnesota Public Radio listeners who voted absentee.  Eden Prairie voter Sally Burns is worried; she never gave it a second thought when she cast her absentee ballot in the past. “I have always assumed that that ballot goes to my precinct and is counted with regular votes,” Burns said. “But with all the discussion it occurs to me that I don’t know that for a fact.” Minneapolis voter Lindsey Jackson has the same question. “I’m just curious if my absentee ballot was counted,” Jackson said”
  • MinnPost, “Recount Working so Far”: “The Coleman-Franken recount process today looked like most administrative processes: dry, dull, ruled by Roberts and uncannily anticlimactic. If you want a sleep aid, click here, and watch today’s meeting of the State Canvassing Board.”Of course, we’re still at least a month — and maybe longer — away from the real climax. So, you’ll need your rest.”
  • MN Indy: “In a brief submitted to the canvassing board today, the Franken campaign highlighted four instances where it believes absentee ballots were improperly rejected. For example, James Langland, a doctor in Pennington County, attempted to vote absentee by visiting the local election office to fill out his ballot. The ballot, however, was subsequently rejected because it lacked a proper witness signature. “Dr. Langland did everything correctly,” said Mark Elias, the lead recount attorney for the Franken campaign at a press conference today. “He actually went to the recorder’s office and asked them to witness the signature. And due surely to human error and nothing more, it resulted in it being rejected.””

Daily Show Riffs on MN: Crazier than you Think!

Crazy like a fox!

This is making its way around the Minnesota blogosphere, but in case you haven’t seen it yet:

This Makes Me Happy

Many people thought that the economic calamity of the last few months coupled with the massive deficit stemming from the war in Iraq and the bailout package would handcuff President Obama’s attempts to deal with the energy crisis and health care. Increasingly there are signs that the President-elect does not share this view.

Today, Obama delivered this speech to the Global Climate Summit by way of recorded message:

How refreshing.

Political Study Shows Franken in a Good Position to Win Recount

Well, this is just all kinds of interesting.

In a complete coincidence, one of my former professors at Dartmouth College, Michael Herron (smart guy), just published a study of the Minnesota recount that shows Franken with a pretty good shot of winning.  The 30+ page study takes a look at everything from the spatial distribution of voters, to the recount process in Minnesota, to the relative rates at which identifiable voter groups commit error on optical scan ballots, and comes to the conclusion that ” it appears plausible that Coleman’s 206-vote lead as of November 12, 2008 may be reversed by the recount process.”

The Huffington Post has the money quote from Herron (emphasis mine):

“If someone put a gun to my head and said, ‘You have to bet,’ I would bet Franken,” Herron said, when reached by phone. “It won’t be a wipe-out. Two hundred votes is effectively tied. We just know that, in this case, Democrats tend to [screw up their ballots] more often [than Republicans].” In Minnesota, the “intent” of the voter is considered during recounts.

The study is an interesting read for political junkies as the analysis is quite in depth:

In his study, Herron looked at the figures from the 2006 congressional election and the 2008 presidential election to determine which areas of the state have the most residual voters. By isolating these areas, Herron could determine which group was most likely to have wanted to vote one way but failed to cast their ballots properly.

The bottom line is that when pushed to a conclusion, Franken actually looks poised to win, but the result is effectively far too close to accurately predict. This anyone’s game (which is probably why Coleman and his goons have pulled out all the stops and are working every angle possible).

Also, can I just note right here, that in the event that this does all end with a Franken victory (knock on wood), there’s now a 30 page study showing that no one stole this race… much to the dismay of GOP hacks everywhere.

The “Horror” of GOP Campaign Tactics

Dave Carlson (R) got absolutely decimated (28 to 71) by Sheldon Johnson (DFL) in the race for HD 67B (East St. Paul), so I hesitate to even post on this, but it’s too funny not to mention.  Remember how “tough” Michael Brodkorb thought Dave Carlson’s mailer was (at right)?  Personally, I think using violent rape as a campaign ploy is absolutely disgusting (or maybe even worse, implying your opponent is not serious about preventing it), but hey, that’s just me.  Well, turns out that Carlson couldn’t find anything in reality that satiated his desire to smear, so he turned to cheap horror flicks for inspiration.

In case you’ve already put two and two together, yes, the pic on the left is the box art for the horror movie “The Perfect Witness” and the pic on the right is David Carlson’s flier.  Notice any similarities?

Now, maybe this is just circumstance and both used a stock image (although, not likely — the cover seems to be of the lead actress in the movie), but even if that were the case, isn’t it a bit disturbing that Carlson felt it appropriate to use the same image used in a horror movie for campaign lit? I mean, the one has the express purpose of scaring people through sensationalized fiction and over-the-top imagery, and the other is a horror movie named “The Perfect Witness” (zing!).

Again, it doesn’t matter because Carlson got absolutely trounced, but let’s all pause and reflect on how great some people thought this lit piece was…

Paging Sarah Janecek

Here is what Republican Sarah Janecek wrote in the initial days after the election:

The outsider ethos that has plagued Al Franken since the inception of his candidacy two years ago now manifests itself in an even uglier fashion: casting doubt on Minnesota’s election process…

Franken and the DFL Party are not entitled to, at best, cast doubt on our process, or worse, create chaos. The PR and legal strategy appears to hang on “properly cast votes properly counted.”…

The incredible irony here is that Democrats appear to be setting up SOS Ritchie — an unabashed liberal — as being responsible for not ensuring that some votes may have not been properly cast or properly counted.

That’s rich. But it’s also wrong.

We’ve talked to a number of rank-and-file election judges (from both parties) this week and they feel insulted. These people volunteer their time year after year to do the Good Neighbor thing at the polls. To smear our elections process is to smear them, they believe…

I carefully listened to both events. Ritchie sidestepped a few partisan shots that would have been easy to make. Kudos to Richie, who, unlike other DFLers, seems to be a much better judge of what’s going on here:

The nation is watching. Minnesota is not Florida or Ohio. Can we please not trash our process?

Reading this ten days after it was written, it almost seems preposterous that Janecek was writing about DFL, and not GOP, attempts to undermine Minnesota’s election process.

Over the last two weeks, Mark Ritchie has been the target of a concerted smear campaign by Republicans trying to undermine the recount and Minnesota’s election process. Despite the fact that there is ZERO evidence of ANY wrongdoing on the part of Mark Ritchie and despite the fact that Republicans from Katherine Kerten to Fritz Knaak to Tim Pawlenty have all admitted as much, conservative hacks like Michael Brodkorb and conservative groups like Minnesota Majority continue to try to torpedo a process that, by all indications, is working exactly as it should.

To Sarah’s credit, she did call out Norm in the piece I linked to above:

I disagree with GOP U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman’s initial strategy of trying to discourage a recount. Franken is entitled to one, and Minnesota law wisely provides for one in close races.

But since that time, team Coleman has done far worse than just discourage a recount. They’ve been working to cast Ritchie as a biased partisan (despite NO evidence supporting that conclusion) and they’ve been attempting to de-legitimatize the recount even before the results are known.

I hope Republicans like Sarah Janecek, who have professed support for letting the process work, will object to these disgusting tactics.

Pawlenty: No Evidence of Wrongdoing or Fraud

So says T-Paw

He also says despite rumors, there hasn’t been any evidence of wrongdoing or fraud in the vote counting process.

Here’s what Pawlenty had to say on KTLK last week:

“That five-person Canvassing Board … will run a fair and appropriate process, and they will render a fair and appropriate result,” Pawlenty said. “It’s in nobody’s best interest, whether you’re a Republican and Democrat or something else, to be taking shots unless there is some reason to do so. … Unless there is evidence, let’s not be throwing gasoline on the fire until we actually have some proof.”

But Pawlenty’s Republican allies don’t care about trivialities like “evidence.” PIM reports that one conservative group, “Minnesota Majority” has filed a complaint with the Department of Justice.

The politically-charged recount of U.S. Senate votes for Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and DFL challenger Al Franken got even more political Monday, when conservative group Minnesota Majority filed a complaint against “dismissive” authorities, including Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie.

Ironically, the founder of Minnesota Majority, just-elected State Rep. Mary Kiffmeyer, preceded DFLer Ritchie, as Secretary of State. So DFLer Ritchie is overseeing the ballot recount in the race, which Coleman leads by 206 votes.

Minnesota Majority filed its complaint Monday with the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) alleging that state voter registration rolls “revealed a number of irregularities.” The complaint is an amplified version of its pre-election notices to officials in 30 counties about the irregularities.

This is really offensive. Republicans complain that Ritchie is acting as a partisan, but they can’t provide ANY evidence of misconduct on his part. The whole goal here is to muddy the waters enough that if the recount doesn’t go the way the GOP wants it to (meaning, the recount reveals that Al Franken actually won the election) they can claim the whole process was illegitimate. Its disgusting

Salon: GOP Tactics in Minnesota “Disgusting, McCarthy style”

While there’s little doubt that the Senate election in Minnesota has been attracting national attention for months and that the recount has only added to the media’s fascination with the race (see Jay Leno’s joke on the Tonight Show: “Minnesota is an old Indian word that means Florida”), the GOP’s increasingly nasty tactics had been flying under the national radar. I say “had been,” because it seems that they are getting too incredible to continue to pass off as mere “tactics.”

Salon, for example, currently has an excellent article up noting the direct correlation between the GOP’s desperation and the depravity of their tactics (emphasis mine…in all quotes below):

Evidently Coleman and his allies fear that his notional lead of less than one-tenth of one percent will evaporate if all the votes are counted. The stakes are high, of course (although perhaps not quite as high as conventional wisdom insists). That is why the barrage of propaganda about the aftermath of the Minnesota race has intensified and expanded far beyond its borders.

Salon also notes how the NRSC “issued a disgusting, McCarthy-style press release that sought to connect Mark Ritchie, the state official who will oversee the recount, with the Communist Party — not exactly Minnesota nice.”

The whole thing is worth the read (well, if you have a strong stomach; Coleman & Friends’ tactics are a bit nauseating), but here’s the real meat of it:

In any case, the Coleman camp is clearly worried and has turned up the noisemakers to discredit both the canvass and the recount. Nearly every movement of a few votes into Franken’s column has elicited shrieks of “fraud” from the incumbent’s friends. In each case, those shrill complaints have been thoroughly discredited by independent observers.

What is really happening as the votes are canvassed has little to do with the dark fantasies of the far right. When a Star-Tribune reporter visited a county office where precinct totals were under review this week, observers from both the Coleman and Franken campaigns endorsed the process as careful and fair. “I’m just watching like everyone else. It all seems pretty straightforward to me,” said Democrat John Stiles. A Republican volunteer named John Nygaard concurred: “It’s very transparent — I’m impressed. I didn’t realize how much work went into this.”

Neither does Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who has lent his good name and image to the false accusations on Fox. Perhaps the governor ought to simply do his job, which is to make sure that all the votes in Minnesota are counted and recounted accurately and fairly in accordance with the law. That is the least we should expect from a state with a reputation for decency and clean politics.

Eric Black to Coleman: If you’re actually innocent, why not try to show it?

Eric Black has taken my previous line of reasoning and, you know, actually followed through on it (he being the responsible reporter he is and I the lowly blogger I am!). The result? A must read. Let me give you a taste:

If Norm Coleman is as innocent as he says of receiving tens of thousands of dollars of improper gifts from his wealthy friend Nasser Kazeminy, there’s a lot he could do, with the help of his friends, to put the allegation to rest.

So far, he has declined to do these things, relying instead on ever-more strongly worded denials but not putting out any proof, some of which he almost surely possesses.

What could he possess that would almost assuredly prove his own innocence? Well, it’s quite simple really:

What documents am I talking about? It’s pretty simple. Norm and Laurie Coleman could make public records showing what Mrs. Coleman has earned since the beginning of 2007, a copy of the contract under which she is paid by the Hays Companies, the nature of the work she did under that contract and documents indicating which Hays clients she serviced and what she was paid. If Sen. Coleman can establish that his wife did a reasonable amount of work for a reasonable amount of pay, the idea that her job is some kind of a sham will take a serious blow.

But that’s not the end of it. Black continues on to explain how several involved parties could possibly offer compelling evidence demonstrating their guilt. Of course these parties may have less of a reason to come forward with these documents pre-trial in fear that they might give something up prior to litigation that could damage them at trial. In certain cases, however, Coleman could request that the exonerating document be brought forward.

Clearly we will not know whether Senator Coleman has committed some incredibly serious ethical violations until the case has been resolved, but as Black concludes, he could take some steps right now to demonstrate his innocence. Why is he opting to simply deny allegations and decry them as “baseless” instead of offering proof of his innocence? Your guess is as good as mine, but it certainly doesn’t bode well for his public image…

Bottom line:

Coleman has said that neither he nor his wife ever got a dime out of any such deal, but questions linger — questions that could be easily answered if Coleman, Kazeminy and Hays produce documents that back up their public statements.

Aaron Brown Talks To Paul Thissen

Aaron Brown has a must read interview with recently announced gubernatorial candidate Paul Thissen.  There are going to be a lot of big fish in the DFL field and a virtually unknown state legislator like Thissen is going to have a steep hill to climb, but if he keeps getting reactions like this, who knows…

If Thissen really does get into the guts of every corner of the state and really does listen, he might have an outside chance. I described my talk with Thissen to a friend this way, and I’ll stick with it now: He’s so damn reasonable. As a health care expert, he strives and generally succeeds to avoid “wonkishness,” showing a clear speaking style that makes sense — especially to independent-minded anti-ideologues. The risk with being reasonable is that voters might lose him in the shuffle of loud, emotional, and better known candidates who might join this race. But the fact is that reasonable people make good governors. Thissen is experienced but not yet a career politician. He has shown something that I have found lacking at every level of government, from dog catcher up to President: curiosity. He wants to learn more about a problem before he decides what the best solution is. And he’s also willing to talk about specific problems. We spent a good portion of our talk last week talking about the woes facing one Iron Range nursing home that is closing later this month, greatly affecting several dozen Iron Range families. Most candidates avoid specifics, but not Thissen.

Check out the whole thing.  Later today, Bluestem Prairie will have an interview with long suspected gubernatorial candidate Tim Walz.  Ollie previews the interview by suggesting that Walz is more focused on staying in Congress than running for Governor.

UPDATE: Apparently I misunderstood the Bluestem preview.  Ollie Ox writes in the comments:

The interview focused on congressional business, since policy and civic engagement is more interesting to this bovine blogger right now. Those who are interested more in the gubernatorial race should follow Brown’s excellent lead and interview declared candidates and potential contenders. Walz’s plans? People should ask him.

Bluestem’s article based on the interview is going to focus on transportation, energy policy, jobs creation, education, rural economic development, that sort of thing.

Apologies for the error. We’re looking forward to the interview regardless.

What’s Next For The Rammer?

Republicans are really in trouble if Tim Pawlenty decides not to run for re-election (and most people we talk to don’t expect him to) because they have little to no bench in Minnesota right now.  One prospect being tossed around in GOP circles is a gubernatorial run by Jim Ramstad.  But a note in the Politico this morning might splash some cold water on that theory:

Rep. Jim Ramstad’s name is bouncing around as a possible “drug czar” — the name given the head of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy. Ramstad, a Minnesota Republican, is in recovery himself and has been a longtime proponent of treatment for drug abuse…

…”It’s gratifying to hear Jim’s name being mentioned for drug czar,” said Ramstad spokesman Dean Peterson. “Jim has worked in a bipartisan way for 27 years on anti-drug efforts in Congress and the Minnesota Senate. And as a recovering person, he’s worked every day to help those suffering the ravages of chemical addiction.”

Judging from Ramstad’s office’s warm response, I’d guess that the soon-to-be-former Congressman would be interested in the job. Here’s hoping he gets it. Not only would Ramstad do a great job, it’d take away the MN GOP’s strongest non-Pawlenty gubernatorial candidate.

Reading the Walz Tea Leaves

Via Bluestem Prairie, we learn about an interesting item that was in the Austin Post Bulletin today.  Apparently Congressman Tim Walz was visiting a local school on Wednesday and during the Q & A session, an intrepid student asked the big question:

Walz also remained mum on whether he plans to run for governor in 2010.

“Right now I’m focusing on getting through this re-election, so no decision yet,” said Walz.

That’s kind of an odd answer given that Walz handily won re-election over a week ago. Methinks the Congressman was not expecting that particular question from a high school student. Long time readers of this blog know that we expect that Walz will take the plunge and run for Governor. He will be a (very) formidable candidate should he pull the trigger.

Olbermann Slams Pawlenty On Recount Lie

Even after this whole random “ballots found in my car” story was proven false… from Countdown with Keith Olbermann this evening on MSNBC:

Runners up, Sean Hannity and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. They are pushing this legend, fiction, lie about the Senate recount in Pawlenty’s state.

Said Hannity, “We have an issue of ballots showing up in a car somewhere and they are going to be counted? Where were these ballots before? So there are a lot of questions about, you know, behavior on the part of some.”

Said Governor Pawlenty, “Finding 32 ballots in the trunk of a car and supposedly forgetting that they were there is suspicious.”

You know what is suspicious Gov? When you push a Republican talking point that has now been denied by the Republican who made it up. Fritz Knaak, a lawyer representing the Norm Coleman campaign announced last Saturday that “we were actually told that ballots had been riding around in Minneapolis Director of Elections Cindy Reichert’s car for several days which raised all kinds of integrity questions.” Not only has Ms. Reichert denied that but Fritz Knaak said on Monday “it does not appear that there was any ballot tampering and that was our concern.” So you might want to drop this red herring since the Republican who dug it up has now denied it.

Snaaaaap.