Recount Data

Fascinating data from the Franken campaign:

DAY 1: FRANKEN GAINS ON COLEMAN - EVEN AS MORE REPUBLICAN AREAS ARE RECOUNTED FIRST
On the first day of the statewide recount, Norm Coleman’s margin was slashed by roughly 20%.

Each night, the Secretary of State will update its count at 8 pm Central Time at this address:

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

But because we have observers in every precinct (many of which counted into the night), our internal data is more up-to-date and allows us to provide you with some context in which to view the results of the first day of the recount. All of this data is as of the end of counting last night:

• 26.5% of the ballots were hand-counted - and the ballots that were hand-counted represented a sample that disproportionately consisted of Coleman votes by a 3.3% margin. In other words, the first ballots counted tended to be from redder piles.
• In Hennepin County (Minneapolis), 29.5% of ballots were counted. Among those ballots, Franken received only 49% of the two-way vote on Election Night, but netted 16 votes in the recount. In the portion of Hennepin County not yet counted, Franken received 62% of the two-way vote on Election Night.
• In Ramsey County (St. Paul), 17% of the vote has been recounted, with Franken netting 26 votes. In the portion of Ramsey County not yet counted, Franken received 59% of the two-way vote on Election Night.
• In St. Louis County (Duluth), 16% of the vote has been recounted, with Franken netting 41 votes. In the portion of St. Louis County not yet counted, Franken received 62% of the two-way vote on Election Night.

Things are looking pretty good. The rest of the Franken release is after the jump…

COURT ORDER REPRESENTS FIFTH SETBACK FOR COLEMAN STRATEGY - CREDIBILITY TAKING A BLOW
Yesterday, Ramsey County District Court Judge Dale B. Lindman granted an order sought by the Franken campaign, mandating that Ramsey County release data regarding the rejection of absentee ballots. Judge Lindman directly contradicted Coleman’s claim that the Franken campaign was seeking to “stuff the ballot box” by noting that our efforts seek merely to “ensure that each valid vote is properly counted.” This is just the latest setback for the Coleman strategy of deception and disenfranchisement:

• Coleman claimed that he had been “declared” the winner of the race for the third time, but the Secretary of State explicitly stated that claim to be false, and that no winner had been declared.
• Coleman claimed that 32 ballots had been found in the back trunk of a car and tried to get those ballots thrown out. The suit was dismissed. And the car trunk story has been thoroughly debunked.
• Coleman and his allies claimed that the Franken campaign was responsible for “shenanigans” (their word) during the canvass process but those attacks have been roundly debunked by the media and the courts.
• The state canvassing board rejected Coleman’s argument that it could not consider the issue of improperly rejected absentee ballots, and debunked their false talking point that doing so would delay the recount process.

With four Coleman myths completely discredited, and governing bodies in Minnesota repeatedly siding with Franken, the Coleman campaign’s communications and legal strategies are swiftly losing credibility.

NATIONAL REPUBLICANS “PESSIMISTIC” ON COLEMAN’S CHANCES
Yesterday, the Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder reported that Republicans are “fairly pessimistic” about Coleman’s chances of prevailing in the recount. And according to the Washington Times, a Republican Senator even started to speculate that Coleman may instead make a fine chair of the Republican National Committee.

KEY POINTS - RACE TOO CLOSE TO CALL
It is clear that the Coleman campaign’s strategy, executed with the help of its surrogates and allies, is to undermine the process and disenfranchise just enough voters so that they can win. Minnesota law, fortunately, doesn’t allow them to do that. And, for our part, we’re going to see to it that those laws are applied to protect Minnesotans’ right to choose their Senator. The race is the closest Senate race in Minnesota history and the closest race anywhere in the country this year; it is too close to call, and we do not yet know who won. The recount is an automatic process used in Minnesota to more accurately determine the outcomes of extremely close races. Candidates don’t get to decide when an election is decided - voters do. We expect the recount to be orderly, fair, and conducted with one goal: To ensure that every vote is properly counted. We may have to wait a little while to learn who won the election, but we will know that the voice of the electorate was clearly heard.