Senator Kelley was the surprise of the 2006 State Convention with a much stronger than expected showing. He ran for Attorney General after Matt Entenza dropped out and lost narrowly to Lori Swanson. And the conventional wisdom in DFL circles is Kelley had been our Gubernatorial candidate in 06 he’d be occupying the Governors mansion now.
We’ll probably wrap up all of the gossip and comings and goings for the Governors mansion and the Minneapolis mayors race this week, but with this bit of news I’ll leave you dear readers with this question:
Now that the 800 pound gorilla in the room, Tim Walz, has announced he will not be running for Governor will the race start to solidify as candidates either go all in or get off the pot? I think that Walz was the only sure fire candidate in the DFL race who could beat Governor Pawlenty every day of the week and twice on Tuesdays — and I know that Republicans stay awake at night at the thought of Walz running for a statewide office — but there is a list of DFL candidates who can beat TPaw, so which ones are prepping their dance cards and which ones are going to stay on the sidelines?
And with that paragraph of overwhelming cliche done, I will actually leave you now with this…
Really- Steve Kelley? What about his “lethargic campaign style”?
St. Paul- Republican Party of Minnesota Chairman Ron Carey today issued the following statement regarding Steve Kelley’s endorsement for attorney general.
“Like Mike Hatch, Steve Kelley is a far-left liberal who has been repeatedly tried, tested and rejected in previous attempts at higher office. Because of his far-left record and lethargic campaign style, I fully expect Kelley’s last minute attorney general bid to end in defeat as well.”
Pawlenty isn’t running for a 3rd term.
If Kelley decides to put his hat in the ring, he will be reconed with. If the DFL would have done the smart thing in 06, he would be our Governor now. 2010 is still a ways off, it will be interesting to see who ends up on the top of the list. I, for one, hope that Kelley will.
Yawn. I was there, but watching the football game rather than listening to Kelley….
Think T-Paw won’t run again? I think seeking a third term is all risk with little reward. Leaving office in Jan. 2011 and heading to Iowa is the best move. But haven’t heard much on this front …
Yes, Michael, because Ron Carey’s word is gold. When he calls someone names, that clearly makes it true. The word of the day is “sycophant.”
I was also at the event and was right up front (i.e., not at the bar with Chris ….
) and I didn’t hear anything in what Steve said to suggest he’s in. He’s definitely made himself visible at party events over the past cycle, but not in a way that suggests he’s keeping himself in the picture.
That said, I’ve been wrong before, and I got my start in Minnesota politics on Kelley’s gubernatorial campaign in 2005, so I’m ready and willing to be surprised.
I have to agree with Chris on the subject of Pawlenty — he likely has little else to prove by running for reelection again.
Let me shorten that up for you, Michael B. Broadcorb.
As Ron Carey says:
“I am a jackass, beholden to a failed political ideology.”
The same can be said of you, Michael.
I was at the event too, and did not hear anything that indicated even a hint that Kelley was planning to run for Governer. I was in the middle back of the crowd so could have missed it. But I’d love to hear what gave somebody the impression that Kelley all but announced he was running. Was it something he said in a private conversation with somebody?
LOLS What a predictable diatribe from Brodkorb.
It all sounds the same after a while, because it is all the same…..exactly the same….saying exactly the same tired old predictable things year after year, campaign after campaign, over and over again.
It’s mockable.
When is Brodkorb going to start running campaigns on a Republican legislative or ideological success story?
I also didn’t hear any “I’m running” from Kelley yesterday..just a nice gesture by Madia to allow him the stage for a minute, as well as Terri Bonoff….now what about all the rumors that she’s already running for Congress and wants to try and shut out other contenders again like the last time. That would leave her up against the same struggle as last spring…Ashwin Madia..and he’s not saying anything about his future plans…YET! I look for him to run again for Congress and Win! I also predict a candidate for Gov. that has not lost an election, so that rules out quite a few.
I like the play on words “Kelly In”. Much like the Kelly Inn in St. Paul where lawmakers go to get some sleep, Steve Kelly’s campagins will have the same flair.
Being well known for the stadium, at a time the stadium is being built when bridges are falling gives Steve Kelly a major flaw. Right now that stadium money could be used for real government needs. And this is not Steve Kelley’s only problem. Basically Steve Kelley had two chances. He failed twice. Time for less flawed candidates to have a chance.
For those of you at the Madia event, were there any other highlights? Also, any indications of what Madia will focus on next?
I, for one, respected him even though I didn’t vote for him. No doubt he is someone who could contribute to public service, as he already has. Perhaps SD 45 could use some new blood (Rest’s seat)?
He’s keeping visible but I’m not entirely convinced he’s in. Maybe he’ll take a shot at it if the field thins or people are unhappy with it but I don’t see that happening right now.
I think in the next month and a half or so we’ll know what Dayton, Entenza and Rybak plan to do and who will run for mayor.
My guess? They all get in and Schiff, Remington, Miller and Costain jump into the mayors race.
It’s a exiting time to be a Minnesota politico.
“And the conventional wisdom in DFL circles is Kelly had been our Gubernatorial candidate in 06 he’d be occupying the Governors mansion now.” Tim Pawlenty would have run circles around this guy and he would have spent him into the ground. Kelly had no money and no juice.
Hah! Conventional wisdom in DFL circles is if Kelly had been our AG candidate in 06 he’d be occupying the AG’s office too. Too bad he lost though. He should be grateful to be considered as a potential commissioner some day.
I don’t claim to be a personal friend, he wouldn’t remember me if we met in public, but he’s told me twice in the past two years that he’s interested in running for governor. He offered that info without me asking him.
That said, I think he’s great and would have a hard time supporting anyone else if he’s got a legit chance of getting the nod.
-Dayton is in.
-Entenza has no shot.
-RT would be bad because he’d get slaughtered outside of the 612/651.
Right now I think it’s Dayton, Thissen, Bakk, and Gaertner.
If it’s Dayton, Thissen, Bakk, and Gaertner, then I hope it’s Thissen.
Go Kelliher!
Kelliher would be a solid candidate on paper. What she lacks (significantly) in charisma, she perhaps makes up for in ties to the state. She is viewed as an urban legislator but with some roots in south-central MN.
From a policy standpoint, though, I like Thissen. I think he is an idea guy who takes Centrist views on many issues.
I think Rybak is a spectacular Mayor in a city where the choices are left-winger or ultra-left-winger, but I don’t think he’d get much support from the center or in outstate.
Dayton - he needs to let new people run.
Entenza - totally unelectable in the General, but in the mold of Hatch/Moe so he might have a shot at being endorsed.
Don’t forget the $$$$$ factor with Entenza. Problem is that it won’t help in a general election. I don’t see him attracting many independents.
Kelliher will need to do something to connect with the folks north of Hennepin County if she’s going to get it done. She could be golden if she can get Sertich/Ness behind her.Bakk won’t be in long, so he won’t hold anyone back up there.
It’s hard to imagine how Kelliher will emerge from the looming budget disaster with much of a springboard for a campaign. Pawlenty will need to prove his mojo to retain his national frontrunner status, and Margaret will be his foil. In that fight it is a zero-sum game. You can never overstate Pawlenty’s political acumen, and now he’ll have national politicos at his disposal. It just does not look good for Kelliher.
I know I’m one of the resident right-of-centers here, but I’m just not moved by Margaret. I see her more as a legislative task-master than a great leader of people, and in the Executive Branch, the best candidates are great leaders. I actually wish MAK would have run for Sabo’s seat. Like I said earlier, MAK is good on paper, though.
I don’t see Sertich’s name in this coversation (except for potentially backing another candidate). Is the common sentiment that he is waiting for the day Oberstar retires?
Bakk — Might make a good governor. I like that he’s comfortable both among business and labor groups. But he’ll have to prove that he can sell statewide. The last two Iron Range Senators with poor name recognition who ran for state office carried the Range counties but bombed everywhere else, while taking about one-fifth of the primary vote. That image of Bakk with the huge crown on his head could become the next “Dukakis in the tank” ad. Besides that, Rangers just don’t sell very well in the Cities. Perpich always lost the Cities in his primaries, and lost them in the general elections too, when the IR put up yuppie-acceptable candidates like Quie or Carlson.
Dayton — The guy’s career follows a pattern: Commissioner of Energy and Economic Development for one Perpich term, gets burned out, quits and disappears. Comes back, gets elected State Auditor, serves for one term, gets burned out, quits and disappears. Comes back, gets elected Senator, serves for one term, gets burned out, quits and disappears. He’s like a moth who can’t stay away from a flame. Mark, you seem like a well-intentioned guy and all, but have you considered that holding public office might not be suited to your temperament? You seem constantly guilt-ridden about your wealth, really shy and uncomfortable when anyone pays attention to you, and you’re always deprecating yourself to the point that it makes others uncomfortable too. You gave yourself an F for your performance in the Senate! Why not use what’s left of your inheritance to start up a nice non-profit, or liberal think tank or something? Or maybe go on a long spiritual trek in the Andes or the Himalayas so you can “find yourself”? Or just something besides running for office to keep you occupied and out of the booze cabinet.
Gaertner — Can’t see her going anywhere. Unlike Klobuchar, she doesn’t have any rapport with activists, so the DFL endorsement is probably out. To win a primary without the endorsement, she’d need either a statewide identity like Skipper or Dayton, (or close association with one, like Swanson with Hatch), which she doesn’t have, and a lot of fundraising prowess, which is yet to be determined.
Thissen — Who? Oh, the preppy white guy from South Minneapolis. Uh, heh, heh — NO.
Hopefully, some other candidates will get in the race.
I heard a rumor that Tammy Lee is positioning a run for gov on the IP ticket. Has anyone else heard that?
Another Chris I think you have pegged all of them correct so far. What do you think of Entenza, Kelly, and Ryback?
I don’t think Bakk is a favorite son up north. You need to consider Duluth/Brainerd/Bemidji and not just the Range when talking about northern candidates.
Rybak seems about as futile a candidate as I could imagine. No chance outside of the core cities and not even all that popular there. He is the poster child for every bad characteristic of “Liberal” management.
Margaret has some rural roots but is simply not dynamic enough to stand up well in a state wide race. She has not been a strong enough presence as majority leader to have garnered any sort of meaningful support. Being majority leader during what is sure to be a very, very difficult session won’t help her either.
Sertich has no relevant experience or connections outside of the caucus and is as charming as a wet pair of socks. He only looks good next to Margaret.
Dayton is simply incompetent and probably couldn’t find his way home without his staff.
Entenza has the tools in both resources and ability. He is a talented manager but has some fairly ugly baggage to deal with. Even so a strong candidate, especially given the money he could raise/contribute. But as Franken has shown, all the fund raising in the world can’t make you likable.
Kelly’s best chance is to win by default.
Thiessen is more interesting then the others I have heard of at this point. Well spoken and very knowledgeable on policy. He doesn’t represent the ideological romance that might be needed in the primary however.
I also also think names like Steve Simon, Larry Hosch and Ann Lenczweski are viable names for state wide office in the near future.
How about Tarryl Clark? Any thoughts there?
I vote Tarryl Clark. I’ve followed her rise and it is increasingly clear that she has the brains, the ambition, and the political skill to win and do the job well.
I hope she doesn’t get scared off by the big names (Kelliher, Ryback) and the big money (Dayton, Entenza) like everyone did in the Senate race this year.
Here’s a nice bio/puff piece: http://www.minnpost.com/stories/2008/05/14/1851/sen_tarryl_clark_dfls_rising_star_soaks_up_the_spotlight_at_the_capitol
The more I think about it, the more people I talk to, and the more I read, Tarryl Clark really seems to be the best option. We need a woman that represents something different. We need someone that can represent Twin Cities suburban yuppies. We need a new, charismatic leader.
Tarryl. Please run. We need you.
KH -
Ditto on Steve Simon. I could live with having him in the Guv office, if a Dem were going to win.
I still think TPaw or another moderate Republican (Ramstad, especially) wins this thing pretty easily. After that, it could be up for grabs.
Purple -
I had not heard about Tammy Lee running, but think she is a legit campaigner. She put up the best showing by an IP candidate in recent memory, and Jesse proved in 98 that an Indy can win a gubernatorial race here.
I’ll throw a new name into the mix (though he has been mentioned on other threads), and that is former state rep Doug Peterson. He has the ability to appeal to both rural and urban voters. This would be especially true in the ag belt portions of the state where the DFL still has trouble. He has been cris-crossing the state going to numerous meetings, testing the waters. If any of you see him some time, give him a listen. Thus endeth the pitch.
DTM is correct that if TPaw runs again, he will not be easy to topple. And Ramstad? Tough sled there also, esp if the Dems put up someone from inside the 494-694 loop.
IF the IP puts up Ms. Lee, and IF you do end up with a competitive 3-way race and IF someone wins that race with 42% of the vote or less, you might see more push for IRV.
Until then, I am going to try and enjoy 2009 w/out thinking too terribly much about who is running for what.
Well I WAS told at the Madia event that Kelly is running for govenor. Who told me? Steve Kelley. I asked him what he was running for next and he said, “Govenor. Will you support me?” Cannot get anymore definitive than that.
Tammy Lee is a racist piece of crap.
Guys, make sure ‘DJZ’ is using my email address that only you can see. I am seeing my initials when I didn’t post.
Tammy is not racist. Ease up on that. I didn’t see anything from her to suggest that. Besides, some of her personal choices in the past directly contradict that too. Anyway, she’s not looking at a run for governor. Leave her alone.
MAK, is a good choice (she is the Speaker of House btw, not the Majority Leader) but, I haven’t seen her campaign statewide. She has done a pretty good job of bringing the House in order and getting funding for important projects across the state. She’s both rural and urban and hasn’t a scant of scandal on her.
Sertich is not thinking about it and still is setting himself up to take on Mayor Ness when Oberstar retires in a couple of terms. Maybe. He’s pretty quiet about his future plans and he just got married. New brides are not fans of long campaigns.
Steve Kelley? Really? Let’s see, DFL Chair, US Senate, Senate Majority Leader, Governor and Attorney General. All turned out to be losses. I will repeat what the fake DJZ said, I don’t know where Sean got the conventional wisdom thing. If you can’t make it out of the endorsement after running for a year, and then while running with the endorsement and huge party name recognition still loose to a candidate in a very short primary period with less name recognition and no campaign experience, its time to think things over. With Kelley, its style. He just has a style that seems to inspire few. Not a bad guy who still has a lot to offer. Steve, change your style.
Entenza will have his hands full fighting off Mike Hatch who has not forgotten Matt. We all know that Hatch never forgets and never lets up. Other than that, Entenza would be a great candidate. He just started a fight with the wrong dog.
Dayton? Yes. He’s got his own money, long roots across the state and has held statewide office twice in recent history. Under estimating him sent him right into the US Senate.
Bakk? Good luck on trying to get labor and business behind you- as he stated was his goal a couple of months ago. With the economy, EFCA, and the upcoming Health debate, those two entities could be further apart. He’s not exactly the darling of the Range either. He’s had to fight off a DFL endorsed candidate twice. Bakk wants it and can make a real run if he decides that 612, 952 and 651 are important. Put a team together with some experience organizing in those areas and then we can talk.
Doug Peterson? He is working the hardest. Speaking at every DFL function and event. I like the idea of a real rural candidate that understands the food situation in our country. I am hopeful but, let’s face it, fundraising is going to be uphill.
Susan Geartner is running for Lt Gov. That’s the only logical explanation I can see with her involved in this.
Joe Atkins- real deal. If he makes a decision soon, he can rise to the top. He’s a suburban legislator, former mayor, excellent speaker, great fundraiser and campaigner. Joe, get off the pot and run (I know you’re reading this J.R.).
Tarryl Clark. Of course. She would have to start this early, like in May. If MAK doesn’t run, she will be legit woman in the race and open to the money those groups give early for a boost.
Next, we should put teams together and see how that turns out. For instance, Clark/Atkins is a power ticket. Dayton/Moua also looks good.
Tarryl Clark strikes me as a bit over-ambitious/opportunistic.
Nobody has mentioned the obvious in regards to Kellihor…. she seems to be the new golden child of the DFL establishment, just like Klobachar was a few years back. She’ll be tough to beat if the Kaplan/Stafford/Stevenson crowd are on board. It should be noted that two of those three were Hillary troops with her last year. All she’d need is to be judged as acceptable by labor and she’d be set. A Sertich endorsement would go a long way too.
My personal choice would be Kelley, but I’d bet on Kellihor if she’s in. I’ve heard from one of the king makers that she hasn’t ruled out a run.
OF course the DFL establishment is what endorsed Hatch, Franken, Skip Humphrey, etc.. The DFL seems to ready to rely on the Republican’s ability to run candidates that are slightly worse as their best option. Mark Kennedy and Norm Coleman being the perfect examples.
The “DFL Establishment” can’t seem to break out of their self contained world enough to put their choices in context. Their opinions seem based on the most inside of inside baseball. How popular MAK is with the Kaplans has no meaning outside of the money.
I hope that the DFL can be forward enough thinking to break out of their country club mentality and pick the best candidate. Not the one who has simply carried water for the well healed while obediently waiting their turn. It is those establishment candidates that make it hard for the DFL to sell itself as party more responsive to the will of their constituents.
p.s. DJZ, thank you for correcting my error on MAK’s title.
I wouldn’t rule out anyone just yet….the party movers thought they had the 3rd CD endorsement figured out, and a bunch of new activists came along and let them know that the DFL is also about new people and new ideas, not just those folks that have “paid their dues”. I still say our candidate will be one that hasn’t lost before.
Entenza a great candidate? The guy got in a fight with Mike Hatch, and Hatch ended up looking like the good guy. The only thing Entenza has going for him is the millions that his wife earned screwing people out of their health coverage while at United Health Care.
Kerosene Hat has a point, the DFL establishment is what endorsed Hatch, Franken, Skip Humphrey, etc. and they tend to pick candidates they think can “win” instead of the more populist or progressive candidates that are right for the job. Case in point is the picking of Hatch over Kelley. I was at that convention, and when Kelley gave his concession speech, the best speech of his campaign (unfortunately), there was a lot of buyers remorse in the audience when Hatch proceeded him with his speech. There are quite a few people, across the State, that feel that if Kelley had been the pick, we would have Kelley in the Governor’s mansion right now.
As for being a “perennial loser”, did you ever think that the reason why Kelley has had a bad run of luck is because the “old” establishment is picking the candidate that has “done their time” over the “progressive” candidate. And by the way, the whole “Swanson” thing had Hatch’s fingerprints all over it.
If Kelley and Kelliher rise to the top in this race, we should count ourselves lucky with such a qualified field.
And usually, MDE cuts down the candidates that they do not want to run against. Case in point, blogging against a Kelley run already.
Cy:
Recall the endorsement of Jerry Janezich, which seemingly had nothing to do with picking a winner and everything to do with picking a populist/progressive type. That didn’t exactly work out.
Right or wrong, Kelley’s struggle will be to overcome the “loser” perception. Most people respect Kelley and would like to see him in a department head-type position of power, but I don’t see the DFL as having the stomach to pin their governor hopes on someone who’s never been able to break through in the past.
As for Margaret, I don’t understand the hype by some. She’s never been able to get any traction against Pawlenty despite ample opportunity, and this budget debacle certainly will not help. If Pawlenty runs again, can Margaret really launch a credible campaign of “I couldn’t get it done as Speaker, but maybe I can as Governor”? And given that reality, why give up the Speakership?
The Janezich endorsement worked out in the sense that the party hacks who decide the endorsement screwed it so much worse than they usually do that everyone felt they could ignore the endorsement. Remember, we (Mark Dayton) actually won the seat that year. The trouble arises when other (and better) candidates respect the endorsment and drop out and we get stuck with the (usually) awful candidate these morons pick.
Kelley would be governor now if he had been the nominee. Frankly, any relatively baggage-free Democrat who didn’t call a reporter a whore 3 days before the election would have won that race.
Perspectives are most interesting so far. Through the years the DFL’s endorsed candidates have lost since Gov.Perpich as the DFL choose to be unaware that only 3% of the voting public strongly identifies with a political party. The 2008 campaigns as well as Tim Walz in 2006 brought new, pragmatic, non-ideologic, well-spoken, and hard working new people for consideration. Of course experience in a given area is important, so is being able to connect with the electorate, not just the party. Hats off to their efforts, some succesful, some not. Steve Kelley would be my choice for Governor, especially at this time. Let’s have some issues dialogue, no overemphasis of,though important, not the idealogues rhetoric. Listen to the voters, they’re informed.