Comments on: Minnesotans Think Recount Was Fair, Want Coleman To Concede http://mnpublius.com/2009/01/minnesotans-think-recount-was-fair-want-coleman-to-concede/ Tracking Minnesota Politics Since 2005 Thu, 18 Mar 2010 02:08:34 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: DantheMan http://mnpublius.com/2009/01/minnesotans-think-recount-was-fair-want-coleman-to-concede/#comment-31068 DantheMan Mon, 12 Jan 2009 15:53:39 +0000 http://mnpublius.com/?p=4419#comment-31068 I for one would like to see someone's lead go up tenfold, even if it isn't my candidate. For the good of the state, I'd rather have a conclusive victor than indefinate uncertainty over who really won. Even if that victor is the other guy. I for one would like to see someone’s lead go up tenfold, even if it isn’t my candidate. For the good of the state, I’d rather have a conclusive victor than indefinate uncertainty over who really won. Even if that victor is the other guy.

]]> By: Kerosene Hat http://mnpublius.com/2009/01/minnesotans-think-recount-was-fair-want-coleman-to-concede/#comment-31064 Kerosene Hat Mon, 12 Jan 2009 15:15:25 +0000 http://mnpublius.com/?p=4419#comment-31064 lojasmo, I alos used Franken talking points. All of them show different points were errors could be made. You are right that Franken's lead might go up, the fact that you acknowledge that shows that the current count and a perfect count of voter intent are different. The difference between those two numbers is bigger than the current official margin. The perfect count might give Franken a bigger lead, it might not. Our inability to count more accurately will keep us from knowing. That fact makes the count of votes during the election a functional tie. lojasmo,

I alos used Franken talking points. All of them show different points were errors could be made. You are right that Franken’s lead might go up, the fact that you acknowledge that shows that the current count and a perfect count of voter intent are different. The difference between those two numbers is bigger than the current official margin. The perfect count might give Franken a bigger lead, it might not. Our inability to count more accurately will keep us from knowing. That fact makes the count of votes during the election a functional tie.

]]> By: lojasmo http://mnpublius.com/2009/01/minnesotans-think-recount-was-fair-want-coleman-to-concede/#comment-31062 lojasmo Mon, 12 Jan 2009 14:53:43 +0000 http://mnpublius.com/?p=4419#comment-31062 When the sample size approaches the population size, the "margin of error" becomes nearly nonexistent. The term "margin of error" is used improperly in this context. K.H. You are reciting Coleman lawyer talking points. If ALL the rejected absentee ballots were counted, Franken's lead would likely increase tenfold. When the sample size approaches the population size, the “margin of error” becomes nearly nonexistent. The term “margin of error” is used improperly in this context.

K.H. You are reciting Coleman lawyer talking points. If ALL the rejected absentee ballots were counted, Franken’s lead would likely increase tenfold.

]]> By: Kerosene Hat http://mnpublius.com/2009/01/minnesotans-think-recount-was-fair-want-coleman-to-concede/#comment-31061 Kerosene Hat Mon, 12 Jan 2009 14:23:10 +0000 http://mnpublius.com/?p=4419#comment-31061 I have taken more than one graduate level statistics course lojasmo and your logic is flawed. The errors are not happening in the calculations of the data but in the original data gathering. The lost ballots from the Minneapolis precinct, the variations in how ballots were counted across the state, the thousands of votes that were determined or tossed out based on the opinion of a few people sitting on the canvassing board. Even ballot design can make a difference in vote totals more significant then .008%. The calculations done based on imprecisely collected data will imprecise,no matter how much of the data you have. The vote was a tie as far as our ability to collect the data. Franken's win will still be valid as our system had a method for determining a legitimate winner even if we can never know who received a plurality of voter support. I have taken more than one graduate level statistics course lojasmo and your logic is flawed. The errors are not happening in the calculations of the data but in the original data gathering. The lost ballots from the Minneapolis precinct, the variations in how ballots were counted across the state, the thousands of votes that were determined or tossed out based on the opinion of a few people sitting on the canvassing board. Even ballot design can make a difference in vote totals more significant then .008%.

The calculations done based on imprecisely collected data will imprecise,no matter how much of the data you have. The vote was a tie as far as our ability to collect the data. Franken’s win will still be valid as our system had a method for determining a legitimate winner even if we can never know who received a plurality of voter support.

]]> By: DantheMan http://mnpublius.com/2009/01/minnesotans-think-recount-was-fair-want-coleman-to-concede/#comment-31060 DantheMan Mon, 12 Jan 2009 13:58:30 +0000 http://mnpublius.com/?p=4419#comment-31060 "The sample size (those who voted in the senate election) was 90% of the population (registered voters) The “margin of error” is essentially non existent. This was NOT a tie." ????? I know I'm just a country bumpkin, but I'm not following that one at all. “The sample size (those who voted in the senate election) was 90% of the population (registered voters) The “margin of error” is essentially non existent.

This was NOT a tie.”

????? I know I’m just a country bumpkin, but I’m not following that one at all.

]]> By: lojasmo http://mnpublius.com/2009/01/minnesotans-think-recount-was-fair-want-coleman-to-concede/#comment-31058 lojasmo Mon, 12 Jan 2009 04:44:05 +0000 http://mnpublius.com/?p=4419#comment-31058 The sample size (those who voted in the senate election) was 90% of the population (registered voters) The "margin of error" is essentially non existent. This was NOT a tie. The sample size (those who voted in the senate election) was 90% of the population (registered voters) The “margin of error” is essentially non existent.

This was NOT a tie.

]]> By: lojasmo http://mnpublius.com/2009/01/minnesotans-think-recount-was-fair-want-coleman-to-concede/#comment-31057 lojasmo Mon, 12 Jan 2009 04:41:03 +0000 http://mnpublius.com/?p=4419#comment-31057 In the case of the Minnesota general election, the number of voters (2.9 million) was damn near the number of registered voters (3.19 million) this virtually eliminates any "margin of error" Sorry, guys. I must reiterate my opinion that Really? and other republican trolls need to attend a college statistics course. This was NOT a tie. In the case of the Minnesota general election, the number of voters (2.9 million) was damn near the number of registered voters (3.19 million) this virtually eliminates any “margin of error”

Sorry, guys. I must reiterate my opinion that Really? and other republican trolls need to attend a college statistics course.

This was NOT a tie.

]]> By: Richard http://mnpublius.com/2009/01/minnesotans-think-recount-was-fair-want-coleman-to-concede/#comment-31056 Richard Mon, 12 Jan 2009 02:54:09 +0000 http://mnpublius.com/?p=4419#comment-31056 This election just demonstrates the need for IRV. This election just demonstrates the need for IRV.

]]> By: Kerosene Hat http://mnpublius.com/2009/01/minnesotans-think-recount-was-fair-want-coleman-to-concede/#comment-31053 Kerosene Hat Mon, 12 Jan 2009 01:15:30 +0000 http://mnpublius.com/?p=4419#comment-31053 An election is a poll with a 100% sample size. There is still a MOE because there is no method of perfectly counting the votes. I thought Coleman's margin before the recount was to small to be meaningful and feel the same way about Franken's current margin. Given the number of places errors could have been made, ballots lost, accounting errors, etc a difference of .008% is in no way statistically meaningful. That doesn't even account for the variations based on things like ballot design. The vote was for all meaningful purposes a tie. Who ends up Senator will be determined by a process no more related to the will of the people then a flip of a coin. Anybody who tries to make more of it than that is either an idiot or....well I guess they are all idiots they only differ in that some are dishonest on purpose, others out of ignorance. An election is a poll with a 100% sample size. There is still a MOE because there is no method of perfectly counting the votes. I thought Coleman’s margin before the recount was to small to be meaningful and feel the same way about Franken’s current margin. Given the number of places errors could have been made, ballots lost, accounting errors, etc a difference of .008% is in no way statistically meaningful. That doesn’t even account for the variations based on things like ballot design.

The vote was for all meaningful purposes a tie. Who ends up Senator will be determined by a process no more related to the will of the people then a flip of a coin. Anybody who tries to make more of it than that is either an idiot or….well I guess they are all idiots they only differ in that some are dishonest on purpose, others out of ignorance.

]]> By: lojasmo http://mnpublius.com/2009/01/minnesotans-think-recount-was-fair-want-coleman-to-concede/#comment-31041 lojasmo Sun, 11 Jan 2009 14:34:41 +0000 http://mnpublius.com/?p=4419#comment-31041 BobT: How do you define "margin of error" in an election with hand counting. In my opinion, the term "margin of error" is used exclusively in polling. BobT: How do you define “margin of error” in an election with hand counting. In my opinion, the term “margin of error” is used exclusively in polling.

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