Tim Pawlenty isn’t going to run for re-election in 2010. Its pretty clear he wants to be President and a reelection campaign has little upside and a lot of risk for the two term Governor. With Pawlenty out of the race, the MN GOP lacks an obvious candidate. Norm, who remains popular with the Republican base (and will be even more popular after the inevitable “the DFL stole the election” narrative takes hold among the conservative fringe), would probably clear the GOP field. The DFL has a lot of quality candidates, but a primary appears to be inevitable. That means that Norm could run a general election campaign from day one and not have to worry about a DFL opponent until September, giving him a monetary and strategic edge.
In addition, 2010 should be a good year for Republicans. Democrats had big years in 2006 and 2008 and the pendulum has to swing back eventually. Mid-term elections during the President’s first term have historically been good to the opposition party. Finally, the DFL has huge majorities in the State House and State Senate and Minnesotans have shown a preference for divided government. Taken together, all of this means that Norm would probably be running in a pretty favorable environment.
If Norm concedes next week, he’ll look gracious and avoid the “sore-loser” label that will plague him if he fights in court. Polls have shown that Minnesotans approve of the recount. They think the election was fair. I don’t think the public will get behind a court challenge. Moreover, Norm’s own words are really going to haunt him. Remember, right after the election Norm called on Al to concede. He said it was time to heal. If Norm takes this to court, he’ll be a hypocrite.
On the other hand, a concession from Norm would prove that he practices what he preaches. It would reinforce Norm’s self-styled image as a moderate and a uniter. I would expect that his favorability ratings would shoot up significantly.
It doesn’t look like Norm is planning on taking my advice. At this point, all signs point to an election contest. I think that’s a big mistake. Norm’s odds of overturning the result of the recount in court are slim. The burden of proof will be on his shoulders. He’s going to have to prove that the process was unfair. That’s a tall order. If Norm takes this to court and loses, his political career is over. If he concedes now, he’ll live to fight another day. Its a tough thing to do, but its ultimately the best strategic choice.
I had this same thought a couple weeks ago. I even voted for Coleman twice for Mayor. (I now regret both votes}
At this point though, I think Norms future is already sealed. He has proven himself to be an unscrupulous flip flopper and liar with his furious spinning about which votes to count and when.
He has also insulted everybody in our state by attempting to paint the open and fair recount process in Minnesota as if it were a conspiracy of liars and cheats.
He has shown contempt for Frankens voters, and for the disenfranchised absentee voters.
Having his wife “employed” for 75,000 per year at an insurance company is deeply suspicious even if not illegal.
What does a failed ex-model and ex-actress DO at this company anyway?
I suggest Norm go to work for his wifes company promoting the Blo-And-Go.
If he can stay out of jail ..
interesting insight. Though it will be hard for him to shake the “sore loser” label. And it might be even harder after dealing with the upcoming corruption charges, and Senate ethics investigations.
Interesting thought experiment, conducted in some parallel universe where Norm Coleman is not facing indictment on fraud and corruption.
I agree with you, Zack. Sky- assuming Norm’s doesn’t go to jail, time heals all wounds.
I think it’s a little premature to predict Pawlenty’s future political ambitions. He was certainly in the national spotlight over this past election cycle, but once McCain chose Palin as his running mate, Pawlenty was noticeably absent from the media. With minimal national exposure, Pawlenty’s chances of garnering enough support to launch a presidential campaign are slim to none. If McCain had chosen Pawlenty as his running mate, things would be different…
Coleman v, Entenza or Coleman v. Dayton would be any Democrats’ dream match-up. Do it Norm!
Zach,
There is one problem with your analysis: Norm is not popular with the base. They think he’s a RINO and have been very open about it.
I don’t believe that Norm will concede. I think that his only chance is to keep this seat.
Remember that he faces FBI investigations and he has myriad skeletons in his past. There is a distinct possibility he’ll be spending a little time at Club Fed. Plus if he were to run for Governor as a two-time losing candidate, who is to say that someone might be willing to speak on the record about the womanizing rumors that keep circulating.
His only political future is to keep the seat (somehow) and then fight of the Senate Ethics Committee and FBI investigations.
Norm (haha…not Senator Coleman any more) could POSSIBLY salvage his political future in the state by conceding. Only POSSIBLY though, and only if there is no indictment in the Kazminy affair.
Norm “Toast” Coleman needs to withdraw and rest on his past achievements for Republican moneymen. A nice job at a conservative think tank serving crumpets and tea.
Any bets on how soon his wife divorces him? Do you think he might run for office other than Governor? Is it possible he will move back to his hometown on Long Island, run for Senate from New York?
What makes you so sure that Pawlenty won’t be running for re-election? I haven’t seen much of anything that suggests that… On the other hand there is no chance that Coleman will beat Franken in the courts, so a drop out wouldn’t be bad.
It will be interesting to watch the Coleman’s now that there is no more need of the photo-op facade of the nuclear family, adoring wife, etc. I’ll bet Norm is remarried in 18 months to someone 10 years younger. Would be a really sad footnote to this poor former Senator if all of their relationship was just for show.
Zack, there’s two problems with your idea that ol’ Smokescreen might run for Governor; it’s hard to win if you’re facing a stint in ClubFed.
Remember what the Good Judge had to say, about Normie’s complaint when Franken ran the ad sayin’ Smokescreen was the fourth most corrupt Senator?
Just in case anyone has forgotten, here’s the good stuff:
Personally, I hope ol’ Smokescreen does run, and is the endorsee. The ads rippin’ Coleman will be brutal, and a Judge has already ruled they’re true.
Zack -
I agree with you. As much as I personally would prefer for Franken to not attempt to speak for Minnesota in Washington, Monday begins the window when this election could be over. Until Monday, this has all been legally-dictated process and timelines. Any time spent after Monday trying to get the victory will drive into the “sore loser” territory.
As much as I think a win by a victory margin of 8/1000 of 1% (.0083% to be exact) will forever be questioned, it is equally important for the state to seat a Senator before the new session begins.
And I have to say I feel better about this all knowing that Franken no longer represents a Democratic supermajority.
So long as DFLers continue to see contested primaries as “detrimental” to winning, Minnesota Republicans will continue to punch above their weight class.
The DFL endorsement process continues to be the biggest impediment to progressive growth in Minnesota. Contested primaries grow the Democratic party. Annointed candidates shrink our base and weaken the entire slate.
Prediction: In 2010 serious candidates will bypass the DFL endorsement process for governor, and the DFL will then turn the summer campaign into a debate over “loyalty” instead of issues as the insistent one-tenth of one percent continue to demand that the state’s Democrats do whatever they say because damnit — we attended all the conventions so we should have the final say!
The DFL endorsement process: absolutely, positively the worst possible way of picking candidates. No other state has a comparable process, and no other caucus state holds their endorsement convention BEFORE their state primary. In Minnesota, everything is about empowering the delegates, not the candidates.
what at bunch of juveniles. You so called progressives. i laugh in your general direction. franken was the best that you could come up with? do you have no imagination? norm was flawed from day one, and this clown, franken was the best bullet you had??? haaaahhaa., so sad. the dfl endoring project is a joke.
why not just float phyliss the socialist kahn for senate. you dopes.
get off the campus, out of your barrooms and do some real work. you are knee jerk reactionary’s, no wonder that when you have power you can do nothing with it.matt entenza..ha,,hahaahhaahaaaaaa, he;s a dork.
pathetic. YOU are LOSING the votes of LABOR,,, and not afscme, or those other goofy unions. real labor. building trades. steelworkers, truck drivers, etc. laugh at your own peril. embrace your social agenda, and i hope it keeps you warm.
fight him norm-this was a corrupt election-fight it no matter what so the truth will come out that Franken is a cheat-how in the world could anyone vote for a comedian that spits filth-franken is not good material-this election process this year has been a joke