In case you hadn’t already heard, Raymond Thomas Rybak will be running for a third term as Mayor of Minneapolis. As the ever-improving Star Tribune notes in their sub-headline: “Rybak says he’s energizes for a third term.” This isn’t a huge surprise given RT’s new year’s eve mayoral fundraiser, but it does firmly close the door for some City Council members who have been licking their chops at rumors of a Rybak Obama appointment or a 2010 gubernatorial run. And now that he has announced, we can announce the winner of the 2009 Minneapolis Mayoral race: RT Rybak. Okay, so maybe there’s some slim possibility that he won’t succeed in his bid for a third term, but I don’t see him losing absent some new information from Ashley Dupré on her clientele… (for those of you without a sense of humor, that’s a joke)
So what about that 2010 gubernatorial race?
Well, some in the blogosphere jumped to the reasonable conclusion that this announcement forecloses any possibility of a Rybak run in 2010 but the Mayor notably declined to make any such statements. No doubt, two races in two years puts a lot of strains in a lot of places (most notably, donors), but it’s not impossible by any means.
I may have been singing a different tune just a few weeks ago, but with Congressman Tim Walz out of the picture, the 2010 DFL race is suddenly much more attainable for all other interested parties. Walz was truly the 800 pound gorilla in the room and his exit leaves much more room for other candidates to fill the void. Then factor in the inevitably abysmal session the legislature is facing (to no fault of their own) with the budget in the current shape it is and the potency of the whole slew of legislative candidates is necessarily diminished, even Kelliher’s (of course she could come out of this swinging, I’m just noting the current state of things). And while he’s built up a great political staff, Mayor Coleman has also announced his plans for another run in St. Paul.
So, who do we have left for 2010 who isn’t tainted by the state budget crisis, stated disinterest, or running for a mayoral reelection? Susan Gaertner, Mark Dayton, and Matt Entenza (who else am I missing). I haven’t heard all that much from the first two (almost nothing at all from Dayton) but Entenza is rumored to be serious about running and throwing his weight (and money) around to intimidate others away.
The point of all the above (other than taking an advantage to postulate about 2010, which is always fun) is that there is a very real possibility that the DFL won’t have a clear front-runner come November. Now, of course, we could, but that would be atypical of DFL gubernatorial endorsement battles and fairly surprising given the density of the field. If the field is still a tangled mess, Rybak wouldn’t have an exceedingly tough time entering: the mayoral race will likely be a walk in the park so he could start hitting up delegates behind the scenes early, he has a loyal donor base that he shouldn’t have to hit too hard for the mayoral race, he’s one of the few candidates with good name recognition (yes, even in outstate MN), and he’s fairly popular. These are reasons he could still run, however; a combination of personal fatigue, donor fatigue, a heated field, and another run by Tim Pawlenty would lead me to bet against a 2010 by Rybak, but who knows.
Bottom line: the Rybak didn’t close the door today, but the opening got much narrower. Now what are we DFLers going to do about a candidate…?
I like Thissen the best.
I happen to be one of the outstate MN residence, and Matt Entenza has little name recognition anymore. If the DFL is going to get serious about winning a statewide election, they need to start recruiting and nominating candidates that may not be the most ideologically pure, but are attractive to a statewide audience.
I think that Lori Swanson fits this mold perfectly. Yes, she isn’t the most liberal, but she can compete statewide, and win. A winning track record is the most important criterion to unset Pawlenty, not a glorified prom king vote.
I don’t know if my last comment went through, but let me say that here in outstate MN, Rybak, Entenza, and Gaertner have no name recognition. I would go with either Dayton or Lori Swanson. Both have statewide reputations, and with Swanson, the proven ability to win statewide elections. That needs to be the most important criterion for selecting a nominee to unset Pawlenty.
Matt, I generally agree with your analysis, but from a horse-race perspective I believe two of the already-committed candidates — Rep. Paul Thissen and Sen. Tom Bakk — will emerge as the frontrunners. The budget debacle will cause the most damage to Kelliher and the mayors. As Speaker, Kelliher is tasked with taking on a relatively-popular Governor whose national status will increase as soon as Bush exits stage left, and the next session will be one giant “he said-she said” fight over the root cause and solutions for an unprecedented budget deficit. Good luck, but it seems to be an impossible endeavor for Margaret. The mayors face the same problem as the nature of the system means they have to go hat-in-hand to Pawlenty merely to keep the lights on — not exactly an empowering position to be in. That leaves Thissen, Bakk, Gaertner, Dayton, and Entenza. Outside of other county attorneys wanting to create a precedent for themselves, who is enthused by Gaertner’s campaign? Dayton will not be seen as a serious candidate, but as a bored retiree with 2010 happening to be the next race to run. Entenza simply is not liked for anything other than his monetary contributions to DFL causes. Keep ‘em coming Matt, but don’t count on any votes at the end of the day. That leaves Thissen and Bakk. Both have established very credible campaigns that seem to be raising a good deal money and growing the ranks of supporters across the state. DFLers (in particular, delegates) see Thissen and Bakk as leaders in their own right, and that certainly will gain steam as others fall by the wayside. Just my two cents.
I threw up a little bit in my mouth at the mention of Swanson running for governor. I would be the first one on board the “anyone but Swanson” campaign. She is terrible.
I threw up in my mouth a little bit at NorthernMNer’s mention of Swanson for governor. I’d vote for Michael Brodkorb before I’d ever vote for Lori Swanson - and that’s saying a lot. She is terrible.
And what is so unpalatable about Swanson? She has shown she can win. That should be the most important criterion. It does us no good to nominate a popular person with the DFL that cannon unset an incumbent. If there is another person that can demonstrate the ability to win statewide, let’s hear it. The Republicans are able to win in MN because they can gather wide margins in the outstate areas to neutralize the DFL metro advantage. Only a candidate that can eat into the Republican’s outstate margins can win.
So, who else fits that mold? Dayton could, but he doesn’t inspire confidence that he would want to run for a second term for anything, including governor. Thissen is relatively unknown, as is Rybak. Bakk has some outstate cred, so he might be a better choice.
Regardless of Lori Swanson’s real talent and qualifications, I think she has been portrayed as a poor man’s Mike Hatch who has damaged the AG’s office considerably. She has also been portrayed as anti-union. With that perception out there, I don’t think she is even a remotely serious candidate for governor.
In person — and outside his former role as party attack dog — Matt Entenza is very charming and likeable. Maybe Minnesotans won’t be able to get past some Entenza fatigue from the early 2000s, but my guess is that he has the communication skills and financial backing to be a very serious (and qualified) candidate. If it’s true that his name recognition has dwindled in outstate Minnesota, that might not necessarily be a bad thing, since he is no doubt remembered by some as “that guy who blamed Pawlenty for everything.”
So what does everybody think about Tom Bakk or Rukavina? Ideally, I would like the candidate to be telegenic like Amy Klobuchar and able to unseat Mr. Mullet.
“she’s [Swanson] portrayed as anti union.”
She IS anti union.
“If there is another person that can demonstrate the ability to win statewide, let’s hear it.”
Mark Dayton.
If you want to talk purely in terms of who can win, then let’s establish some basic rules for all candidates:
1. The DFL candidate will win Minneapolis and St. Paul.
2. The DFL candidate will win the Range.
3. The Republican candidate will win the Minnesota Sideways T (Hinkley west through St. Cloud, Alexandria, and Moorhead and the western swath from Worthington to Thief River Falls).
4. The Republican candidate will win the exurbs.
5. Without Tim Walz running, the candidates will split the First Congressional District.
What does that leave? The 494-694 suburban ring. The candidate who wins that ring wins the gubernatorial race in 2010.
I hear you on Dayton, but he has a one-term track record that is a cause of concern. I also read a story that Entenza tried to clear the primary field by saying he was going to spend a huge amount of his personal money to win. I’d rather all the candidates debate and let us hear who is the best to take on the Republicans.
I still like MAK, although it is true that this legislative session may take it’s toll on any current legislators. I think Rukavina is viewed as too much of a windbag, Bakk is hardly known outside the range, Dayton needs to convince the party he’s in it for the LONG haul, and Entenza does have the money and we have short memories. Ryback is a strong campaigner and fundraiser, too. How about former State Rep. Doug Peterson (he’s outstate) and not hobbled by the current budget crisis in the Legislature. There are some upcoming fundraisers that should tell us something about how serious these (and unnamed others) candidates are.
I wish Rybak had been making a different announcement and I’ve told him so. I was (and am) one of the biggest boosters of the idea of Governor Rybak. However I don’t see how he can turn around right after winning re-election and then start running for something else. The only way I could see him entering and winning the race is if the 2010 convention ends with no DFL endorsement.
I think Thissen is going to emerge from this all very strongly, he does not have a big enough role in the budget process that he will be tainted by that unlike the legislative leaders mentioned (including Bakk). Dayton and Entenza are going to be old news to a lot of folks who will want something new and I still have not been convinced that Susan Gaertner is mounting a serious campaign. John Marty has also run but I just don’t see how a 2-1 loser gains much traction, despite how much I personally like him.
I would not be surprised to see a situation where Thissen emerges after a long DFL convention as the endorsed candidate but faces a self funding Entenza, Bakk and maybe Marty as well.
Let’s be clear here - it’s not Entenza’s money. It’s his wife’s.
How about Mark Ritchie? He’s done a bang up job as SOS…something else to think about.
I agree with Rough Rider. Everybody should take a long look at Thissen. He’s smart — Harvard undergrad and University of Chicago law school — but he doesn’t come across as a know-it-all (like Al Gore). He’s an expert on one of the biggest issues of the day, health care. And the fact that he’s a relative unknown could work in his favor, since he will not have any built-in negative associations with voters (unlike Dayton or even Rybak). Obviously, he needs to find a way to get his name out there. But if he can do that, I think Thissen’s got a chance.
Its not just that its Entenza’s wife’s money, its that the money was ill-gotten. She got paid tens of millions of dollars as an executive at United Health Care - which made that money screwing people out of their health care. They just got fined $50 million dollars for their practices in New York state. It will be an absolute disgrace if Entenza can buy the nomination with that blood money.
The quick analysis by aress is good — but to put a finer point on it, I think this race is really for CD3. Whoever carries CD3 in 2010 wins the Governor seat.
I know I’m not a Democrat, but my history of voting for MN governors would also show that I’m not a party-line Republican. In fact, my voting history would tell you that I’ve voted for the endorsed GOP Guv candidate way less than I’ve voted for someone else. With that, I would make three quick points:
1) The tired names of Entenza and Dayton — Do you want to lose, or what?
2) MAK — A fine legislative brancher, but I just don’t see her as an Executive brancher. We’ve shown that our Governor needs to either have a touch of charisma, or not be the party guy, or both. Arne — not the party guy. Jesse — not the party guy, and a little (very wacky) charisma. TPaw — charisma, and if you’ll recall, Brian Sullivan was the party guy. TPaw only squeaked by after making his deal with Strom. MAK is a prepackaged party product and lacks charisma.
3) I’m just saying, I’d take a look at this Thissen guy. Seems to have some potential. Some say he is unknown. I say we aren’t sick of him. Glass is half full.
I was thinking Ritchie the other day too.
-RT will be tough to sell outside of the 1st tier metro. I don’t see rural folks warming-up to him. He’s kind of like our John Kerry.
-Entenza is going to be tough to sell to anyone.
-I thought MKA was a shoe-in if she ran, but I’m don’t think so anymore.
-The RNC police aggression might hurt Gaertner.
-Bakk and Marty don’t have a chance.
-Thissen has a long way to go to get there.
What if someone like Dayton or Kelly slips through? Clark might have a shot, but she might be a bit too spunky to appeal to the masses.
I’m anticipating that the DFLers will agree on most of the issues and share many of the same themes, so this contest will likely come down to the candidates’ individual records, personalities, and whoever shares the most cultural cues of the most activists. (BTW, I’m not looking forward to the forums/debates. You can’t have meaningful exchanges with seven or eight people up on a stage.)
Entenza, Dayton and Marty are old news with too much baggage.
Bakk might bring a base in the 8th CD, but he’ll have a real hard time with anyone from the metro, and Rangers haven’t always appealed to other rural parts of the state either. In a primary, could he expand beyond the 19%-21% that fellow Range Senators Doug Johnson and Jerry Janezich scored? I don’t see it yet.
Gaertner could be a presence among the “It’s time for a woman” faction of the party if Kelliher or Clark don’t get in. But a lot of activists really seem to dislike her, and other self-consciously “moderate metro” candidates like Kelly Doran and Mike Ciresi have flopped. Plus, her campaign manager is John Wodele. ‘Nuff said.
Thissen — well, he’s an unknown upscale white male liberal from Minneapolis. He seems like the kind of “quirky” choice that metro liberals are attracted to. Given the delegate apportionment rules, after 2008, activists from the metro area will have a lot of influence at the 2010 convention.
If the race stayed static exactly the way it is now, Thissen would probably end up winning the endorsement by a sort of default. A statewide primary might be a different matter, depending on who ran against him.
My own leanings at this point are towards Kelliher. The two biggest downsides I see are the upcoming budget bloodbath, and the fact that she hasn’t had to face a real election against a Republican opponent. Like Thissen, her district is in kind of a limousine liberal area of Minneapolis. Here are the plusses: I haven’t detected any traces of elitism or condescension in her from what I’ve seen of her media appearances. She comes across (to me) as smart and reasonable and like a normal person. She comes from a rural background and was active in progressive movements like Groundswell in the ’80s, was an early volunteer on the Wellstone campaign back in 1990, etc., so I trust her bona fides as someone progressives can talk to. She’s got some statewide name recognition. After a bad 2007 session, she turned in an impressive performance as Speaker in 2008. Amy Klobuchar demonstrated that coming from Minneapolis doesn’t have to doom you to failure in other parts of the state as long as you have a certain chemistry in you. Regarding the upcoming budget session, R.T. Rybak has cut a lot more services and raised a lot more taxes than Kelliher, and that hasn’t caused anyone around here to rule Rybak out as a possible candidate. I’m not saying the 2009 session might not hurt Kelliher, but I do object to a double-standard here. And seriously, it kinda is time for the DFL to nominate a woman for Governor.
(Between 55%-60% of the electorate in Democratic primaries are women. Having 15-20 candidate forums this year with six or seven men and Susan Gaertner as the one woman up on the stage is not a dynamic I’m looking forward to. A party’s primary field should reflect the actual composition of its electorate as much as possible. We’re still a long way from achieving this, despite the historic anomaly of the Clinton vs. Obama primary.)
So, anyways, that’s where I am right now. My views are subject to change based upon what happens this year, and of course, whether or not Kelliher actually chooses to run.
(Regarding Lori Swanson, it’ll be hard for her to run if the allegations that she and Hatch misappropriated federal Medicaid Fraud funds turn out to have merit. I don’t know how that investigation is proceeding and what the Legislative Auditor will turn up. Maybe it’ll be vindication, maybe it won’t. I don’t know. In any case, I know they’re looking into it, and are scheduled to release a report this year on the subject. Besides, Swanson has shown terrible political judgment ever since she was elected. She’s amazingly tone-deaf about this stuff. The state press corps that started out quite enamored with her has now turned against her in a big way. None of that augurs well for a gubernatorial run, or a reelection run against a plausible candidate.)
If you want to get a “feel” for some of the field, contact anyone from SD32 (Maple Grove, Rogers, Corcoran, Hassan, Dayton) as they are hosting an Obama Inauguration party that dovetails with a “Meet some of the DFL’s top Candidates for Gov.” fundraiser on February 7 in Maple Grove. They are also having some great entertainment with Adam Levy (lead singer for The HoneyDogs), so for $50 (refundable through the MPCR) you can get up close and personal with a number of the early possible candidates. Note to those that don’t think MAK has enough appeal/charisma…Klobuchar was no “rock star” when she first started campaigning, but she has gotten better and better with time. I think MAK has real “chops”.
I see the difference between MAK an Klobuchar is the ability to connect with the rural voters and working men. Klobuchar is comfortable rubbing elbows with union workers and rural voters. I know MAK was a farmer and all, but I’m not sure if she’ll be comfortable making connections in that element.
Please, not cotton-candy Rybak. I live in Minneapolis and he’s a pretty face, but he’s done nothing remarkable. He has a certain following — many who saw themselves as political activists, but really didn’t know much about city issues. A lot of young people liked him because he was accessible — you could talk to an actual mayor — awesome! He stage dives!
He has no vision. I dread if he were the DFL nominee. A lifestyle liberal is not what we need steering the ship of state in these serious times.
Dayton’s in. Race is over. He’ll be the nominee.
So who will you run in 2014?
Dayton will be running for re-election in 2014. I know how silly that sounds, but I think it’s true.
Dayton hasn’t announced, though…only filed.
I like Dayton on all the fundamentals except one… charisma. Could he please take a public speaking course or train to do something about his monotone voice. I don’t expect all politicians to be on Obama’s level for communication but Dayton is capital “D” dull on the stump. Of course that might be a positive against Gimmicky Timmy.
I agree, amuse. It shouldn’t be too much to ask for our leader to be able to connect and engage with those who elect him or her.
In my opinion, MAK has the same issue. She is not necessarily monotone, but she certainly is dull and when she communicates she sounds like she is reciting some high school textbook word for word. Not connecting.
That is why so many Dems wanted Walz and so many Repubs feared him — he can connect with an audience, be it one or a thousand people. He doesn’t do it with soaring oratory, but he does it in a more folksy way ala GW Bush. Before I get slammed for making that comparison, I mean it with respect to Walz. After all, Texans say that W successfully rose to become a popular Governor of Texas because of his way to connect with people in all parts of the state and all socioeconomic circles there.
My guess is that Dayton drops out before the endorsement. He has no chance at a post-Obama, DFL endorsement and has signaled that he’s not going to pour his fortune into another primary race. He means well and has done some good, but his ship has sailed. The DFL I saw this fall will coalesce around new blood like Paul Thissen or someone outside the metro like Bakk (Walz would have been nearly a lock). I just do not envision a tired face like Dayton or Gaertner or establishment types like Rybak or Coleman doing anything for the party. Then again, this party has shown a knack for losing.
It will be interesting to see who the interest groups/elites/activists align with.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Education Minnesota went with Steve Kelly
Labor could go with Dayton
I could see the GLBT/feminist and social elite establishment going with MAK
The Nader/Pallmeyer-Nelson could go with Thissen
Ritchie is the X-Factor. His stock is hot and he’s an everyday guy. Ritchie is the one potential candidate who could be tough outstate and in the metro.
If Ritchie runs, I will work my ass off for him.
Two thoughts. First, I still like the possibility of Doug Peterson running, but he might not have enough metro recognition to get the endorsement. Second, if Jerry Brown can make a comeback as CA governor after all he has been through (aka “Governor Moonbeam”), maybe not all hope is lost for Sen. Dayton. That’s not an endorsement btw, just an observation.
The lack of women candidates on any list does trouble me. But also remember that the Twin Cities t.v. stations have a really long reach. My parents live by Bemidji, and all they get for local stations is ‘CCO, KARE, etc. So people like MAK and Gaertner do have some measure of name recognition.
Um, guys, you’re forgetting - the endorsement doesn’t matter. This race is going to a primary, and we all know the history of how well the endorsed candidate has done in the primary.
The REAL question is: Who has the best combination of money and name recognition to win a primary? Bakk has potential with money, but it seems unlikely he’d appeal to many outside of the range. Rukavina? Haha, yeah right. And Swanson is NOT running for governor. Clark? What has she done and where has she been?
RT is clearly running. Have you seen his staff? Notice the similarities with the 2008 OBAMA staff? Ritchie can’t run right now because of the senate recount, but he’s done everything so well that and his name has been mentioned so many times that he should be considered one of the front-runners for both and endorsement and primary. Dayton has been working behind the scenes for almsot two years now and filed but didn’t announce because nobody can right now. And his political director is top-notch. Entenza has the money and has been working behind the scenes as well. 20/20 has done good things for him.
It’s a PRIMARY.