Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009, (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP decreased 6.3 percent.
Of course, this wasn’t really unexpected. We all lived through the last quarter, and we know how much it stunk. We don’t really need the official statistics to tell us it was a bad quarter for the US economy. I’ll be really interested in seeing the stastics for the 2nd quarter — that is, the quarter we’re in right now. Real GDP will almost definitely decrease again, but I’m hopeful that things are turning around. Who knows, by the end of the year we could even be back at zero!
Related update: Maybe things won’t improve in the 2nd quarter. Chrysler will file for bankruptcy after negotiations fell apart. That’s particularly important because of the auto industry’s impact on GDP. From the BEA press release: “Motor vehicle output subtracted 1.36 percentage points from the first-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 2.01 percentage points from the fourth-quarter change.”
Jeff - thank you for the informative post. It is nice - on occasion - to receive accurate information without the left spin on it. Give yourself a pat on the back.
Great post Jeff. Here’s to hoping GDP rises in Q2 rather then the additional drop I think we are all fearing.
Thanks for this article ! I will definitely come back and read more articles written by you if I have more time.
Cheers,