Paulsen, however, is not waiting to find out who his opponent will be. Filings released today reveal that Paulsen raised over $221,000 in the 1st Quarter of 2009. That’s a pretty healthy sum for the first quarter of the cycle during a recession. His cash on hand is not as impressive - only 190,000. If a Bonoff or some other DFLer gets into this race sometime in the near future, they should not have much trouble staying at financial parity with Paulsen.
In related news, 4th District Congresswoman Betty McCollum reported raising a little over $100k in the 1st quarter, she has a similar ammount on hand.
In your analysis, did Bonoff learn anything from her loss to Madia in order to be more competitive? Does the fact that she “fits the demographic” better make her more competitive in the general election. (This demographic stuff disgusts me, but not knowing the district, is it a factor?) Can she win?
McCollum doesn’t even really need money. She doesn’t even bother advertising really.
I think Terri should have been endorsed in the first place, although Madia was a good candidate, too. Terri has wider appeal than just on the Iraq war… I hope she runs.
I certainly hope that Terri learned from the 2008 campaign, and I would expect that she did. I am not sure it matters to her chances in an endorsement race, however. Remember, she almost won in the endorsement in 2008. She should carry over a significant ammount of support. I think a significant portion of the rest of the delegates would be persuaded by an “I told you so” argument.
I’m sure Terry is an excellent legislator, but she needs to join Toastmasters, and spend the next 19 months polishing her extemporaneous speaking skills, along with her debating skills or she will be crushed. I’m sorry, but after witnessing her run in panic on the CD3 convention floor to a legislative colleague saying, “what should I say, what should I say?” before an unexpected call to speak during the endorsement process, she has a long way to go before she can compete at that level. Her legislative mentors will not be there to hold her hand in Congress. With that said the more people she meets one on one in CD3 the better she will do. One on one, she is very likable and genuine, but she has got to be able to compete on the stage and under the microscope of the media. I am also disgusted with the “demographic issue”, but as someone who doorknocked and phonebanked CD3 I can tell you it is an unfortunate painful reality.
I wish someone like Melissa Hortman would run, but her kids are too young and from what I’ve heard, understandably, she’s not willing to make that sacrifice
Zach,
I get that part, but how about the general, assuming she gets the endorsement? Does her failed 2008 endorsement attempt translate into a 2010 general election victory, or is it an unfair question? I am sure she could get the endorsement, but how does she fare against Paulsen?
Thanks,
Alec
I actually think that the flaws that sank her endorsement campaign will be less significant in the general. For example, everyone kept talking about how Terri was a lousy public speaker. That was a serious problem in a race where all of the delegates got a chance to see Terri speak live and in person. Its not as big of a deal in a general election because the vast majority of voters are going to only see her in TV ads (careful scripted, rehearsed and with several takes)
Tip: Steve Simon or Andy Luger. Those two could really give any Republican in this district a run for thier money.
You brain wizards here at mnpublius guaranteed a Madia victory last year…over and over and over again. The district had changed, you told us, and Paulsen was a dead man walking.
Your side vastly outspent the GOP and threw the kitchen sink at Paulsen. It was a terrible year for Republicans when Obama was carrying the 3rd. Madia was on his way to Congress, you just knew it was going to happen.
But…you lost…and it wasn’t even that close.
Face it: Paulsen fits the district perfectly and he is a very strong, impressive individual. No matter what you throw at him and how much you spend, these simple facts will not change.
When the DCCC et al is deciding what races to throw money at next year, they will skip over the 3rd. Been there, done that…and it didn’t work.
Jeff, you just convinced me to spend all my donation money in the third next time!!! Wasted or not!
Good! Go for it! Fund those incredibly effective direct mail pieces claiming Paulsen hangs out at strip clubs again. Those were just brilliant and worth every penny spent on them. Really, really good stuff that swung a lot of votes to your guy. They’ll work again, I’m sure. Change we can believe in!
I realize this is a liberal blog but you guys have to admit that it will be a serious uphill climb for any Democrat to beat Paulsen next year. Had Bonoff run in 08, she probably would have run. But now that Paulsen is an incumbent, no credible candidate will run against him.
Sorry…mean she probably would have WON.
Too true Fly, but candidates are most vulnerable in their first term. We gotta get him this cycle before he is entrenched and starts getting good committee assignments. Our best bet is if he keeps being an unmitigating obstructionist to a popular president.
Good luck to us:)
Agreed, fly. As far as House races go, the incumbents definitely have a big advantage. I think we down here in the 2nd need to take a play from the Bachmann district (6th?), and get an attractive woman on the ballot. Seems people are suckers for that type - regardless of policy. Then again, it could be that plus a solid-sounding name. “Tinklenberg” and “Wetterling” just don’t cut it. (No offense to anyone with these names intended. They just sound so…limp: Tinklenberg = tinkle, Wetterling = weakling).
Jeff, Paulsen won because he - like most of today’s elected republiCons - is perfectly willing to look at a camera and lie through his teeth.
If Little Miss Hiding In The Weeds, Michele Bachmann, hadn’t had her macacca moment, Madia probably would have won. Prior to Bachmann MotorMouth Overdrive claiming Obama was anti-American, and the media should investigate the other electeds to determine the other anti-elected representatives in D.C., the GOP had cancelled ad buys.
Bachmann shoots off her mouth and says something stupid - no surprise there! - and the money that was going her way, went Paulsen’s.
Paulsen ran as far from the GOP during his campaign as he could; now he’s acting like Boehner’s peronal page.
He’s vulnerable this cycle because his far-right extremism does NOT fit the third district.
“…and the media should investigate the other electeds to determine the other anti-AMERICAN representatives in D.C. …”
Is this what the 3rd believes??
Against equal pay for women, against common sense approaches to helping people maintain their mortgages
Against the GIVE ACT-National Volunteer Program Expansion
HR 1388
>>>This act provides funds to help support volunteer programs for veterans and the elderly. It also supports programs for kids to earn college tuition through volunteering. Gets money to kids for college and benefits the community because they have to work in return. Sounds good, no?
Against HR 1106: Mortgage Restructuring In Bankruptcy — This bill would help struggling homeowners maintain responsibility for their homes at a lowered interest rate. Does the 3rd want to end up like the 6th, with the most foreclosed homes?
For-CHIP Reauthorization Act of 2009 HR 2 — He actually voted for health care for poor kids, unlike most Republicans. Gotta give him props for that, even if it was just to please his centrist voters.
For — Tobacco Industry Regulations HR 1256 Props again.
Against- Lilly Ledbetter Pay Act S 181. This law protects equal pay for women.
Against-Paycheck Fairness Act HR 12 Paulsen does not believe in equal pay for equal work
CD3 should be a top target in 2010. Bonoff would be a strong candidate, and I think she should look to run. Andy Luger is a terrific guy and would be a strong candidate as well; does he want it? Steve Simon doesn’t actually live in the 3rd right now, though he does represent part of it in the Leg, correct?
The DFL has a great bench to run against Paulsen, and he needs to have the strongest possible challenge in 2010 while he’s working on his first reelect, and while he’s marching in lockstep with the out of touch and deeply unpopular GOP congressional leadership. Unfortunately, I keep hearing from DFL insiders that they are telling the top tier contenders to wait until after redistricting to go for the seat.
I think that’s a mistake, but that’s out there right now. There are a bunch of people who think they can draw the lines so that even if we lose a seat we can eliminate Bachmann’s district, take the 3rd more easily and go forward.
The time to take Paulsen out is 2010.
And as a tangent, I’d redistrict to take Kline out.
Sorry to all my friends in the 6th, but it’s kind of nice having Little Miss Hiding In The Weeds as the face of Minnesota’s GOP Party.
I doubt anyone in the D.C. GOP takes Bachmann MotorMouth Overdrive seriously; they just like her vote.
Kline, on the otherhand, is as reactionary rightwing as they get - and he is taken seriously.
So seriously - take him out through redistricting, and leave Bachmann for easy shots at the far-right-wing that is today’s GOP.
Hey TwoPutt Tommy: Aren’t you the guy who stalks Republicans in Eden Prairie, goes after their churches and your neighbors who attend them, etc? Isn’t it a little like the pot calling the kettle black for you to call someone an “extremist?”
I’m still waiting for the brain wizards here on mnpublius to admit they were way off in their predictions on the Paulsen/Madia race. Will that ever happen?
Jeff,
Everyone was off on Madia/Paulsen. The polls had it looking very promising to Madia even leading. Everyone was wrong except the people who picked Paulsen. Oh well. Nice toss of vague accusations. Typical Republican. for example — Jeff, aren’t you the guy who likes smoking crack cocaine?”
Two Putter-I agree. 1st term is the best chance.
Paulson is already shaking in his boots, and his lack of knowledge on key legislative issues exemplifies that. I was at a townhall meeting with Paulson yesterday, where the subject was environmental legislation. All he did was spout off the usual freshmen conservative congressional rhetoric: “What about China?” “Not enough language about nuclear power.” “We need more clean coal.” Blah, blah, blah. Ramstad makes this guy look like an oaf. I could tell he plans on doing nothing but raising money and preparing for his campaign for the next year or so, because neither he nor any of his aides at the event wanted to take any questions. He’s already looking desperate.