Pawlenty - 51%
Kelliher - 34%
Pawlenty - 48%
Coleman - 37%
Pawlenty - 48%
Rybak - 42%
Pawlenty - 51%
Thissen - 32%
Pawlenty - 47%
Dayton - 43%
Pawlenty - 50%
Gaertner - 36%
Pawlenty - 51%
Marty - 34%
Pawlenty - 52%
Bakk - 34%
Pawlenty - 51%
Entenza - 37%
That’s a lot of numbers. The results from the Dayton, Rybak and Coleman trial heats show that Pawlenty would be vulnerable in seeking a 3rd term as he falls below 50% against a well known challenger. I think name recognition controls all the other results.
By the way, I hope no one pollutes the comments section by trying to argue that this poll shows one DFL candidate would be a stronger nominee than another. Its just way too early for polling data to be instructive on a question like that, especially when you consider that Pawlently’s percentage only deviates 5% between his worst performace and his best.
One last side note, I am glad KSTP commissioned this poll, but couldn’t they have tossed in a couple of alternate Republican candidates? I put the odds of T-Paw seeking a third term at less than 20% and I would have really liked to see polling on a Rybak - Ramstad match up, or Kelliher - Sullivan (which, given the low levels of name recognition of those two, would effectivley be a generic Dem vs. a generic GOPer).
Well, Coleman’s obviously not running. I think it will be Dayton, and I think Mark will win.
Lojasmo -
Why do you think Coleman is not running? he has made some major staff hired including John Stiles to run his campaign for mayor. Most of the staff hires are a bit overkill for a race he has little chance of losing.
It is well within the realm of possibility that those hires were made in anticipation of a Gov run once he is elected Mayor again.
To say he is “obviously not running” is way too premature.
I know you asked us not to do this, Zack, but I’m surprised MAK’s numbers are so far behind Rybak, Dayton, and even Coleman. At this point in time, I’d say she is at a high water mark from a name recognition standpoint.
Oops. Didn’t see the request. On a side note, my wife and I were discussing MAK’s name recognition. Her argument was that she is speaker. I figure she probably has a 10% name recognition.
Lojasmo -
I disagree with you about Coleman, I am certain he is running. I agree with you however, about MAK. I bet her name recognition is very, very low.
This poll is actually worse than useless… on the one hand we have Timmy who has a press conference and everybody needs to attend, he does a Friday morning radio show on the longest running and largest legacy station in North America followed by being in the middle of a historic political mess between our next Senator Franken and a used up douche bag from New York. So again what is on the other hand… a group of DFL elected and former officeholders who despite having good manners and bright careers are in a gaggle with no clear leader even within the party. All you can use this data for is to have a baseline that you know either goes up or down in the coming months. It certainly doesn’t show anything but name recognition… and I thought that legally Dayton had to change his name to Marshall Fields or Macy?
Chris Coleman is running…why would he be doing events down in Rochester during his Mayoral campaign if he weren’t?
I’m disappointed they didn’t poll Steve Kelley in this matchup.
ZS writes (correctly):
The results from the Dayton, Rybak and Coleman trial heats show that Pawlenty would be vulnerable in seeking a 3rd term as he falls below 50% against a well known challenger. I think name recognition controls all the other results.
— — -
Making this the most worthless poll ever.
Chris Coleman is running an exploratory committee as he used that approach to address the Mpls DFL Convention on Saturday.
I agree with Zack, I don’t believe Pawlenty will be the candidate. I just saw a gubernatorial blogger poll on mndem.com that listed the republican candidate as the “annointed one.” I thought that was kind of funny since that is how the cons seem to pick their candidates. If it were Dayton vs. Brian Sullivan, Laura Brod or Marty Seifert, that would be much more of an interesting poll.
Actually this poll shows how weak the DFL field is against Gov. Pawlenty. You cannot keep creating new tax brackets and expect suburban moderates who trend Democratic to support that. They view Pawlenty as the last stand against uncontrolled spending. Pawlenty will win hands down.
People like Mark Dayton, Ryback, Coleman are all just jokes when they run for Governor. What are Coleman/Ryback going to say. “Look how good our schools in Mpls/St. Paul are ”!!!
Are you serious? How weak they are?
All the ones who are polling horrible have zero name recognition. They keep Pawlenty just above the danger zone. But when you compare the bad numbers to Dayton and Rybak make this already a toss-up race poll wise, well then it clearly shows a huge weakness for Pawlenty.
Wait til the campaign revs up and everyone knows pretty much everyone, Pawlenty will be battling for his life if he runs for a third term.
I too doubt Pawlenty will be running again. This isn’t the only polling done, and keep in mind, the sting of the unallottments hasn’t happened yet. When it does, things will almost certainly change.
The question we have is will Dayton, Entenza, Coleman, Rybak, et. al., be able to paint the eventual Republican candidate as a Pawlenty look-alike, and tie her/him to the sting of the unallottments? If they can, the DFL candidate will be in a much stronger position.
Also, keep in mind we haven’t seen any ads, interviews, or publicity for most of these candidates, especially up here in the northwestern quadrant of the state. As name recognition increases for the DFL, the numbers will change too.
This is kinda silly right now.
Does anyone remember the presidential candidates much who did not get to the final game?
When you compare many candidates, to one — as the above does, how the poll gets done is very important.
This early in the race of course name recognition matters. You are most likely to know a little bit of the name you
recognize, or believe that you do.
If the focus is on the challenger, then the number of candidates & personal investment in one selection is less.
If the focus is instead on Pawlenty, the incumbent - perceived dissatisfaction with him is paramount in the response.
Or how far removed people have been from governance.
And that says Pawlenty’s BS of redefining what are taxes, into “fees” & the other doubletalk has worked only too well.
But the mechanism of comparing many to one - overinflates the importance & stature of this ONE.
Its just not mattering quite so much yet. We haven’t invested yet.
In Context?
Does anyone doubt Pawlenty’s national ambitions?
I don’t think anyone on the right or left really believes he wants to be gov again, except as stepping stone.
Check His Avis
#2 is going to matter.
#2 better try harder, because that’s who is being set up as gov.
Because we know Pawlenty is going to go traipsing around the country again, while he campaigns for a presidential candidate.
And while he lobby’s for a pivotal role in a national campaign, possibly as VP again.
So we are left with whomever he selects as Lt Gov for a time.
Can Pawlenty’s numbers survive people realizing they may be voting for Molnau as gov?
Has anyone participated in this poll? To give a sense of how it was presented?
Was it all against Pawlenty, or was Coleman cited as a possible challenger to Pawlenty?
In culmination:
This doesn’t mean very much yet.
People need to realize its a comparison against a future PART TIME GOVERNOR.