You may have read about it in the St. Cloud Times, but you certainly heard it here first: Tarryl Clark is gravitating towards the CD6 Congressional seat stronger than Michele Bachmann’s lips to W’s face. Clark has filed her paperwork with the FEC (though they seem to think she is running in 2000… come on FEC, I know the “0” is right by the “9”, but really); and her MN Senate reelection website is “no longer in service”.
Like we’ve said before on this blog, Tarryl is a strong candidate out of CD6, having been endorsed in every campaign she’s run there. While she has some catching up to do with Tinklenberg and Reed, I believe that she has enough time and support to do so.
Tinklenberg is done, he’s been tried and he’s simply doesn’t have the energy or willpower to get out there and give his all to his campaign, fund-raising or pounding pavement.
Clark, as lovely of a person as she is, is assistant senate majority leader, in that capacity she doesn’t have much choice but to toe the party line to keep the troops voting with the caucus. I have no problem with that, but it simply does not play well in the district with the non party loyal. (Although, it may win her the endorsement, unfortunately) The 6th has a CPVI of R + 7
You have to pull some Republican base to win.
Enter Maureen Reed. She is pretty politically independent and a policy wonk. She’s intelligent, well-spoken and kind. A perfect contrast to Michele Bachmann. Maureen has proven herself a capable fund-raiser thus far (232,000 in 8 weeks) and while we haven’t seen a lot of policy statements, I expect she’ll have something for us soon.
Tarryl is the only one of the three that has actually won something in the sixth, and in conservative St Cloud in an off year when the SCSU students were home on winter break no less. That’s promising.
Reed needs to show that on issues she’s more than a one trick pony - she’s really only solid on healthcare. She’s calling people and asking for information, but I’m getting sick of candidates out here trying to learn on the job.
Tinklenberg needs to get going. Sure, he’s hiring a team and sending out the same, tired email fundraising appeals he used last time, but he is just assuming his list of supporters from last time are still with him this time. He needs to pick up the phone and ask for some votes - he’s way behind on that (Reed has called through everyone at least three times and Clark has hit most of them before she even declared). I don’t think he realizes how many of his supporters have already been picked off.
Here is the real test as to whether Clark thinks she will win….lets see if the local senate district delays their endorsement until after the congressional district does. If they endorse BEFORE the CD, then Clark is in a good spot. If they delay…well…then you’ll know.
Cue, Immelman, the person who keeps saying he knows how to beat Bachmann but was unable to do it last time and seems unwilling to put forth the work to do it this time.
As a conservative………….I actually will admit that Clark probably IS your best candidate (ie she’s attractive and comes across well)……….that being said………it will still be tough to beat Bachmann?????
With 2010 right around the corner we have an opportunity to bring Bachmann home.
Here are the current facts as I have determined them as a DFL constituent:
1. Senator Tarryl Clark is WINNING the DFL endorsement race.
2. Clark has been able to win elections in her conservative district.
3. Senator Clark has worked the entire district listening to its residents even when she’s not running for office as part of her duties as Assistant Majority Leader.
4. Elwyn Tinklenberg is a Blue Dog Democrat as evidenced by his ‘08 endorsement and campaign literature.
5. Elwyn Tinklenberg has chosen not to abide by the DFL endorsement.
That being said, you can help any of these candidates with your pocket book:
Clark is indeed the only candidate to have actually won anything in the 6th District. Of course, the same was true of Terri Bonoff in the 3rd District last year, but the strategic geniuses that are DFL activists turned her down in favor of a complete unknown with zero electoral track record. (Oh, wait, I forgot, Madia was elected class president at the UM in the ’90s. Yeah, that’s totally comparable.)
Clark is a stronger candidate than Patty Wetterling (in the sense of knowing wtf she’s talking about); and Elwyn Tinklenberg (in the sense of having a pulse, actually working for the job, and hopefully not lamely trying to split the difference on fundamental yes-or-no questions — “I’d co-sponsor a bill impeaching George Bush, but I wouldn’t introduce one,” “I would have voted against the first bailout but supported the second”).
But in the end, the 6th District is still the 6th District, and I’m skeptical of any DFLer’s ability to win there barring a national Democratic Party wave, or Bachmann indulging in her verbal diarrhea shortly before the election. We had both of those conditions in 2006 and 2008, and Bachmann won anyways, albeit against weak candidates. Argh, why couldn’t Clark have run last year??
Great news, we are behind her 100%. Tinklenberg really disappointed us last election, he didn’t do nearly enough and he was handed an opportunity to beat Bachmann with all that money after she stuck her foot in her mouth again and again, and he didn’t do enough with it, so we won’t be backing him again. Clark is a great candidate.
She would have won had she run in 2008. 2010? Probably not.
Tinklenberg is done, he’s been tried and he’s simply doesn’t have the energy or willpower to get out there and give his all to his campaign, fund-raising or pounding pavement.
Clark, as lovely of a person as she is, is assistant senate majority leader, in that capacity she doesn’t have much choice but to toe the party line to keep the troops voting with the caucus. I have no problem with that, but it simply does not play well in the district with the non party loyal. (Although, it may win her the endorsement, unfortunately) The 6th has a CPVI of R + 7
You have to pull some Republican base to win.
Enter Maureen Reed. She is pretty politically independent and a policy wonk. She’s intelligent, well-spoken and kind. A perfect contrast to Michele Bachmann. Maureen has proven herself a capable fund-raiser thus far (232,000 in 8 weeks) and while we haven’t seen a lot of policy statements, I expect she’ll have something for us soon.
I hope we don’t blow it again in the 6th.
Tarryl is the only one of the three that has actually won something in the sixth, and in conservative St Cloud in an off year when the SCSU students were home on winter break no less. That’s promising.
Reed needs to show that on issues she’s more than a one trick pony - she’s really only solid on healthcare. She’s calling people and asking for information, but I’m getting sick of candidates out here trying to learn on the job.
Tinklenberg needs to get going. Sure, he’s hiring a team and sending out the same, tired email fundraising appeals he used last time, but he is just assuming his list of supporters from last time are still with him this time. He needs to pick up the phone and ask for some votes - he’s way behind on that (Reed has called through everyone at least three times and Clark has hit most of them before she even declared). I don’t think he realizes how many of his supporters have already been picked off.
Tune in folks for the next episode of “AS THE FUR FLIES” as Tarryl and Michele as they snarl at each other, flashing who has the longest set of nails.
Here is the real test as to whether Clark thinks she will win….lets see if the local senate district delays their endorsement until after the congressional district does. If they endorse BEFORE the CD, then Clark is in a good spot. If they delay…well…then you’ll know.
Look, the 6th Congressional District is a tough row to hoe for Democrats at the best of times. Can a Democrat beat Bachmann?
Here’s my analysis of the 2010 election outlook in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District.
http://www.immelman.us/news/can-a-democrat-beat-bachmann/
Cue, Immelman, the person who keeps saying he knows how to beat Bachmann but was unable to do it last time and seems unwilling to put forth the work to do it this time.
As a conservative………….I actually will admit that Clark probably IS your best candidate (ie she’s attractive and comes across well)……….that being said………it will still be tough to beat Bachmann?????
With 2010 right around the corner we have an opportunity to bring Bachmann home.
Here are the current facts as I have determined them as a DFL constituent:
1. Senator Tarryl Clark is WINNING the DFL endorsement race.
2. Clark has been able to win elections in her conservative district.
3. Senator Clark has worked the entire district listening to its residents even when she’s not running for office as part of her duties as Assistant Majority Leader.
4. Elwyn Tinklenberg is a Blue Dog Democrat as evidenced by his ‘08 endorsement and campaign literature.
5. Elwyn Tinklenberg has chosen not to abide by the DFL endorsement.
That being said, you can help any of these candidates with your pocket book:
Tarryl Clark: https://services.myngp.com/NGPOnlineServices/contribution.aspx?X=5iQdimGSZ+4oFpdcGjj83KomHp43FcO/hPQLmnaZcUs=
Elwyn Tinklenberg: https://services.myngp.com/ngponlineservices/contribution.aspx?X=pEWjYFU42cf0ZVvT8kkgyg5bv//5KbmvYjM1pvRKsAg=
Maureen Reed: https://maureenreedforcongress.ngphost.com/crmapi/contribute
Clark is a formidable candidate. Tinklenberg and Reed have a LOT of work to do if they want to beat her.
Clark is indeed the only candidate to have actually won anything in the 6th District. Of course, the same was true of Terri Bonoff in the 3rd District last year, but the strategic geniuses that are DFL activists turned her down in favor of a complete unknown with zero electoral track record. (Oh, wait, I forgot, Madia was elected class president at the UM in the ’90s. Yeah, that’s totally comparable.)
Clark is a stronger candidate than Patty Wetterling (in the sense of knowing wtf she’s talking about); and Elwyn Tinklenberg (in the sense of having a pulse, actually working for the job, and hopefully not lamely trying to split the difference on fundamental yes-or-no questions — “I’d co-sponsor a bill impeaching George Bush, but I wouldn’t introduce one,” “I would have voted against the first bailout but supported the second”).
But in the end, the 6th District is still the 6th District, and I’m skeptical of any DFLer’s ability to win there barring a national Democratic Party wave, or Bachmann indulging in her verbal diarrhea shortly before the election. We had both of those conditions in 2006 and 2008, and Bachmann won anyways, albeit against weak candidates. Argh, why couldn’t Clark have run last year??
Great news, we are behind her 100%. Tinklenberg really disappointed us last election, he didn’t do nearly enough and he was handed an opportunity to beat Bachmann with all that money after she stuck her foot in her mouth again and again, and he didn’t do enough with it, so we won’t be backing him again. Clark is a great candidate.