We were hearing last week that the Speaker was going to announce her Gubernatorial race this week, and lo and behold she’s got a onesheet up!
The Entenza campaign has tried very hard to develop an air of inevitablity — that he is going to be the DFL candidate for Governor. MAK’s candidacy is a bowling ball off an overpass for the Enetenza 18-wheeler and right now I’d have to speculate that she will be the DFL endorsed candidate for Governor (catch the edit at the end).
With the entrance of the Speaker and the expected entrances of the mayors in the next few months, the long summer Entenza has had to develop momentum and image will be quickly coming to a close.
It’s game time.
(image via)
edit: okay so in my post, I wrote that I speculated that MAK would be the DFL endorsed candidate for Governor. I was a little overzealous. If I was a betting man, right now I’d put money that the speaker will be the endorsed candidate, but the same thing that I feel about the Entenza inevitability argument applies here, with the introduction of either or both mayors the fundamentals of this race (and now with the entrance of the speaker) have changed and will change substantially.
To prognosticate a little further I would venture to guess that there will be four candidates in the mix at the convention. MAK, Coleman, Rybak and one candidate from the second tier, I’d guess either Thiessen, Kelley or Gaertner (who has been getting increasingly good reviews as the summer has gone on) and I think MAK will be our endorsee for any variety of reasons (I think there will be a very strong push for a female candidate this year).
And finally, please remember MNPublius hasn’t endorsed any candidate for Governor and these opinions are all mine, I’m not supporting anyone for Governor yet, but I’m real sweet on the Speaker, the Mayors and Paul Thissen.
Just out of curiosity, when was the last time a sitting Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives was elected Minnesota Governor?
I would NOT speculate that she will be the DFL endorsed candidate for Governor. A lot of the DFL base is disapointed at her major screw up handing Pawlenty the keys to the budget. If there’s someone to blame besides Pawlenty for the unallotment, it is her and the DFL leadership in the legislature.
If I had to guess for an endorsement frontrunner, I’d guess R.T. if he runs, though he’s not my #1 candidate, he could make a better case than could MAK. I think it will be hard for a legislator to run in this environment.
I don’t ever remember there being a sitting or not Speaker being elected to the Governorship (there might have been before the modern era), but in my mind it’s largely inconsequential.
sean
There has never been a Minneapolis/St. Paul mayor elected governor either. I think there was only one former big city mayor that became governor, and that was some sort of weird situation.
Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but with the news about United HealthCare and their work undermining health care reform, I think the stink of the source of Entenza’s millions will become more of an issue.
Its good to see MNpublius back; I was going through withdrawal for a few days.
As for MAK having the momentum for the endorsement, why? She has more name recognition in the rarefied circles of the DFL, but any other reason? Is it our sense that she is the most electable?
That’s a pretty SW Minneapolis heavy grouping there. I like MAK myself, although my early enthusiasm for her has dimmed a bit. I wouldn’t rule her out, since Roger Moe “lost” the 2001 legislative session and then went on to win the endorsement the next year. (Although Roger Moe might not be an example MAK’s campaign would appreciate.)
One thing I’ll be interested in seeing is how many House members endorse MAK. Klobuchar and Hatch had the vast bulk of them lined up on the days they announced their candidacies. Since MAK has been Speaker the last few years, this question takes on a little extra significance.
Not in anyone’s memory. But then, when was the last time a Mayor of Minneapolis or St. Paul was elected Governor? Or a former U.S. Senator?
Let’s face it, at this point, we’re basically just evaluating how the candidates look on paper. People make decisions on who they’ll support based on a variety of intangible qualities, Number One being, “Do I identify with this person?” and “Is s/he ‘electable’?” being a strong second in a primary battle. Since the DFL candidates agree on most issues*, personality and events will decide who gets endorsed. Hard to predict that 10 months in advance.
*Bakk and Rukavina probably disagree with the Twin Cities candidates on some things: 2nd Amendment rights/smoking ban/environment vs. job development.
Love the bowling ball/18-wheeler metaphor, Mr. Broom.
MAK will be very tough and I’m inclined to agree she’ll be the endorsed candidate next summer.
The multi-million dollar question is whether Entenza and/or Dayton will spend so much of his/their own cash in the run-up to the primary that MAK will be an afterthought for many of the 350,000 or so people who show up in September….
While MAK seems like a smart, capable person, she has two insurmountable negatives:
1. Major tactical errors in the last legislative session that gave Pawlenty the upper hand.
2. At least tacit support of union-busting, public-office-wrecking, socially-challenged-but-headline-hungry AG Lori Swanson by her attempts to shut down Swanson’s critics within the DFL.
I’ve been critical of MAK’s leadership style and image as a potential executive, but I’m excited for her to tell her story to the voters. As a moderate, I always enjoy hearing how far to the left/right a candidate will go in their endorsement race. Of course, they will snap back toward center after they get the endorsement, but I get to see their true colors based on what promises they are making to the base.
Meh. She’s a good person, and her heart’s in the right place, but I HATE her leadership style. Also, Margaret WHO?
This is an impressive field of candidates. I want to hear more from the dark horses. From what I have seen so far there is a strong back bench. I am not an entrenched party person so I take the whole inevitability thing with a grain of salt. In turbulent times, especially when the greatest threats come from within, a changing of the guard is an appealing prospect.
I like the Roger Moe comparison. And it would carry through to losing again too. She let her troops get totally outmaneuvered by the governor through a series of blunders that anyone reading the daily paper could see happening in slow motion as they occurred. This CAN’T be the best the DFL has to offer.
My early concern is that three really flawed candidates — Entenza, Dayton, and MAK — will crowd out your second tier. That may mean one of the Mayors is the only hope, though I’d love to see someone like Thiessen, Kelley, or Gaertner gain some traction too.
Paul Thissen (different spelling, no relative) is a very appealing candidate on many levels. The fact that we were out maneuvered by Pawlenty will be a factor and something that all of the candidates will need to address in an unambiguous way.
Some points to consider (my opinions, of course):
1. I assume the Speaker hopes to enter the race with the support of a lot of House DFLers. But as Speaker, she is also the caucus’s fundraiser-in-chief. This could be a year when the DFL has to play defense to hold what it has in the House. The Speaker’s decision to campaign for governor and not for the 15 or so House DFLers who could find themselves in tough races could ruffle some internal feathers.
2. A lot of people think Thissen has a lot of upside, but he’s likley the least known of all of the DFL candidates. A very high-risk, high-reward type candidate. Who knows how that plays? DFLers don’t have a history of going with the new guy.
3. Entenza and Dayton have a lot of well-known baggage. I think that is a very large concern of DFLers, especially since our last gubernatorial candidate had a lot of well-known baggage.
4. I don’t see much about Kelley in press or on the blogs, as everyone groups Dayton-Entenza-Kelliher-Rybak versus the “others.” But Kelley is one of two candidates who has run a contested statewide intraparty race (Dayton being the other), and Kelley gathered a lot of support in 2006.
5. Does Rukavina actually run? Or is he just in to annoy Bakk?
6. It will be fascinating to watch what I term the “base battles”: Coleman, Entenza, and Gaertner in St. Paul; Kelliher, Rybak, and Thissen (and maybe even Dayton) in southwest Minneapolis; Bakk and Rukavina on the Range.
What great news; for the opposition.
Ok, so eventually, when Rybak and Coleman also enter, who will be the favorite, and why?
And can we all take a minute to ask ourselves a simple question: “Which of these candidates can win?”
What will MAK’s impact be on Rybak’s potential campaign? I imagine Rybak will have a bit of an uphill battle fighting for Mpls money and endorsements.
Has anyone looked at the comparative records on actual social policy? Has anyone thought about who is and who is not gathering money from lobbyists and corporate PACS? How about if the DFL nominate a candidate who passes these common sense tests? That would be Senator John Marty. Face it — he is the only one who passes the test!
That Darn Arne!
We DFL’ers mistake party familiarity with citizen familiarity in the nomination process, choosing insiders over people with the potential to be good governors. How else to explain the parade of losers in suits going back to the 1980’s? MAK, Entenza and the mayors are all fatally flawed candidates, although the mayors probably have more to offer as practicing executives. Thissen, Kelley, and Gaertner all will offer good government foundations and independence without the political insider label and limitations that come from immersion in insider politics. Let’s trust the voters to think about the quality of the person and not the strength of the political connection. Otherwise we’ll continue to field poor candidates inferior in quality to independent people like Hutchinson…and hand the election to the more disciplined Republicans.
I agree with your comment except that Hutchinson was a fraud and a liar, and certainly not a superior candidate.
As probably the only campaign hack qualified to drive an 18 wheeler, I must comment. After dodging republican teabaggers who behave like startled deer, a bowling ball ain’t even a challenge. But if you’ve been paying any attention to Matt Entenza’s world class policy wonking, you’d note that his campaign is on rails as much as wheels. Yep, the Entenza Express is on track, building up speed, and much of the 2010 delegate pool is already on board.
As far as MAK entering the race, she’ll mostly drain south Minneapolis support from R.T.
Entenza’s biggest challenge is that he is a bigger sleazebag than Rod Blagojevich. No candidate with his record of lies and scandals would have a prayer except for the fact that his wife made tens of millions of dollars screwing people out of their health coverage at United Health Care.
If the DFL nominates this clown, it will have sold its soul.
When you can buy both the train and the rails, pardon me for being skeptical about the number of people on board.
We DFL’ers mistake party familiarity with citizen familiarity in the nomination process, choosing insiders over people with the potential to be good governors.
Great point. It doesn’t always happen (e.g. Ashwin Madia) but it has happened alot in the Gubernatorial elections.
It amazes me to read the venom that comes from inside the party about candidates.
We are going to have to decide if we want to run a 4 million dollar governor’s race or a 12 million dollar governor’s race. It’s been 24 years since the democrats won and reading these posts it easy to see why.
The “venom” is a good thing. We might not have gone 24 years without winning if more people had stood up and said that Mike Hatch and Roger Moe, et al. were terrible candidates.
This reminds me a little of the Clinton-Obama battle that precluded Obama’s nomination. As an early Obama supporter I was extremely pissed at both the vigor and stubbornness of the Clinton campaign as it went on and on. As it turned out I was wrong to be pissed because beating the Clinton campaign was vital in making the Obama campaign a better election machine. Every objection raised by Clinton came back from McCain but the campaign was ready for it.
In the same manner we need to use our pre-nomination fighting to perfect our candidates for the real fight with the Republicans. We seem to lose more often when we let the “electable” candidate skate through the nomination instead of fight through a raft of good candidates. I think we need more discussion not less for our candidates.
amuseinc, I could not have said it better.