Today Margaret Anderson Kelliher’s campaign released her first list of supporters. While it has inspired some silly ‘snark’ in some corners of the blogosphere the real issue is getting down to the numbers. There are 35 37 super delegates on the list (I just eyeballed it, but I have 34 legislators and Lori Bergland Olson, Allison Myhre and Alyssa Harrington DFL Executive Committee members). Entenza lists 9 super delegates on his endorsments page.
As well on Kelliher’s list there are a few old hands who should be expected to be delgates (and some young hands like DJ Danielson). I’d go so far as to say that there is somewhere between 40 and 50 votes for endorsment on that list. And obnoxiousness on the internet aside (which I have contributed more than my fair share of) the next big step is going to be the endorsement process. Kelliher’s list is a pretty spectacular opening salvo and cements her place as (in my mind, Zach and I disagree on this) the frontrunner for the DFL endorsement.
With the abbreviated endorsement schedule momentum is going to be very important. Right now I would venture to guess that MAK, RT and Thissen (T-sun) are the frontrunners for the endorsement, I exclude Entenza, because I think with the depth of this field, and with their experience in 2006 DFL activists won’t be interested in giving the endorsment to someone who isn’t going to abide by it.
If I had to bet, I’d say that next August MAK will be taking on Matt Entenza, Mark Dayton and a player to be named later (I expect someone on the liberal vanguard will mount a pretty forgettable run).
Kind of sick of reading about MAK on MNPublius.
Emily Olin
I don’t know what you mean by “snarky” but this is the time to separate the wheat from the chaff. All the top tier candidates have strengths and weakness and we better get them exposed now.
But if as reported Entenza is prepared to spend 6 mil in the primary alone and that number doesn’t scare Dayton, then what difference the other candidates who can’t put up close to that kind of money has is more for sport right now.
Endorsement’s, super delegates and even the convention itself will mean little unless they endorse someone who has a chance of winning the primary.
It’s been 40 years since the DFL endorsed a candidate that won the Gov’s race.
It seems like a piddly difference, but Entenza only has 8 superdelegates right now. *Former* State Rep. Aaron Peterson is not a superdelegate, AFAIK.
All the publicly declared superdelegates can be found at the Tracker for anyone who's really interested.
But I also didn't have Deb Hogenson — so he *does* have nine. She and all the rest can be found on the list
Why exactly does the DFL even allow superdelegates? Sounds like a way for the insiders to run the show.
This is everything that is wrong with the DFL in a nutshell.
I will mention that Draft RT Rybak for Gov collected 2600+ signatures in roughly the same amount of time as MAK. Very few super delegates on that list though.
I don't think we have any "front-runner" yet.
1. The 5th District Congressional race in '06 had something like 13 candidates in it and Keith Ellison was endorsed after only three ballots.
2. Besides, the DFL has drop rules in place where, after certain ballots, candidates who have less than a given percentage are automatically removed from consideration.
3. The longest convention fights in the last 15 years were races with only two candidates in them:
a) 1996: The GOP went 15 ballots with no endorsement between Rudy Boschwitz and someone forgettable.
b) 1998: Skip Humphrey and Mike Freeman went 10 ballots at the DFL convention before Freeman won.
c) 2002: Pawlenty vs. Sullivan lasted 12 ballots.
Dayton get the endorsement from the biggest union in state and not a word from MNPUBLIUS?
How do size this up to be news but AFSCME's endorsement not worth writing about?
Please post on the endorsement so I can comment on how its BS even though I like Dayton think he's in the best position to win this.