Since 1989, the party holding the White House has gone on to lose both the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. The streak goes back even further in Virginia, where the party holding the White House has gone to lose the gubernatorial race since 1977. [CNN]
Nobody expected a Democratic win in Virginia after Creigh Deeds sank like a stone in polls starting a couple of months ago. A late surge in polling made it look for a moment like Democrat Jon Corzine might salvage his race in NJ after being behind for months, but it was not to be.
There was one huge upset, though, in a race that received a ton of National attention, and which says a lot about the implosion of the Republican party. Democrat Bill Owens defeated Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in NY-23, a district the Democrats haven’t won in over a century. This is not a vote of confidence in the Democrats, but it is a sign of how the right’s internal bickering is going to cause major problems for them if they can’t get it under control.
I wrote yesterday that hardline conservative activists shouldn’t look to NY-23 as a model for how to take over the GOP (more than they already have):
Here’s the thing: Hoffman will almost undoubtedly win the election in NY-23. But that doesn’t mean Republicans should look to NY-23 as a model for purging what moderation remains in the party. It’s easy to squelch individualism in a district that hasn’t voted Republican for a century; in other districts, it’s going to lead to a spate of conservative losses.
Well as it turns out, Hoffman didn’t even win. If he couldn’t pull it off, I would definitely suggest that fringe right-wing activists challenging moderate Republicans is not going to be a winning formula for the right in 2010.
One last point, as I’m sure I’ll hear it in the comments: Am I just trying to distract from a devastating Referendum on the Obama administration? (At least, that’s how I imagine it will be phrased). The answer is that all indications show this election had nothing to do with Obama. As I showed above, losses for the Dems in VA and NJ, while unfortunate, follow a trend that goes back several decades.
If that doesn’t convince you, let’s ask the voters:
…majorities of voters in both states (56 percent in Virginia and 60 percent in New Jersey) said President Obama was not a factor in their vote today. Those who said Mr. Obama was a factor in New Jersey divided as to whether their vote was a vote for the president (19 percent) or against him (19 percent). In Virginia, slightly fewer voters said their vote was for Mr. Obama (17 percent) than against him (24 percent).
So all in all, here’s the storyline from last night:
- Predictable losses for the Dems in NJ and VA.
- A surprising victory for a Dem in NY-23 that he should be able to hold on to for all of a year.
- A warning to the hard right — if you try to oust what remaining moderate Republicans there are, you may hand victories over to the Democrats instead.
Three weeks ago I spent about an hour car ride with Democrat from New Jersey. Apparently the Corzine just sucks and Democrats couldn't stand him. I asked him why another Dem didn't run because a generic Dem in new Jersey would crush. Apparently Corzine was just so freaking rich it was pointless for a Dem to oppose him. Another argument for publicly financed campaigns I guess. Bottom line is that Dems didn't lose in VA or NJ. Obama didn't lose. Two horse shit candidates lost. Now, why the Dems didn't put forth better ones I don't know.
One more potential signal — Moderate Republicans: if you don't veer far right we will replace you with a tea bagger.
Nice spin Alec. Another potential signal — liberal Democrats: If you don't veer right we will replace you…period!
Deeds was not even close to being a liberal.
Dems did lose VA and NJ. I don't know how you could claim otherwise.
The upstate NY race is beautiful, in my opinion. I'm glad it happened in a random one-off election rather than in 2010 where the GOP would have thrown many seats away. That race basically says "don't get greedy". You may think you have support for your base, but there is no way you can win in a three-way race when two of the parties are going to split half of the vote.
GOP runs just the moderate candidate in that race, and they win easily based on last night's numbers. They should be watching and learning.
The result that got my attention was New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's squeaker 51 - 46 win over a nothing candidate. Considering how popular Bloomberg was and the relative weakness of his opponent, he should have absolutely cruised.
It is a bit more complex than all of this I think. Virginia was going to be a tough hold for Democrats because of the bad economy but also because the last two govs of Virginia were Democrats and very popular, but Virginia is a one term limit state so neither of these popular candidates could run again. In New Jersey Corzine has always underperformed the Democratic index there, he simply isn't that well liked by Democrats.
Being fully aware of how he squeaked into office, Bill Owens is most likely going to find it necessary to be a blue dog rather than a lap dog if he intends to run again next year.
Pfft. how is a 4% lead "squeaking into office"?
He won a three way race. Him versus two Republicans. And at the last minute the moderate Republican threw her votes over to him. And she still got enough votes as a non-candidate to be a difference-maker in the final tally. And he still only beat Republican infighting by 4% after being handed some of their votes by her.
I think Kathy is right. Owens is smart enough to know Blue Dog has a nice ring to it at the moment.
The race that caught my attention was the marriage amendment in Maine. Yet again, fear and discrimination win out.
I have to admit, I was suprised by that outcome.
I wasn't surprised, but disappointed. The ads about the marriage amendment in Maine depicted gay marriage as an imminent danger to kids, tantamount to a secret brainwashing campaign. That somehow gay marriage would "teach gay" in schools. (WTF does that even mean, anyway?)
I am very sad about Maine, and elated about Wa.
How sending 2 democrats to congress, and sending two republicans to state houses could portend bad things for democrats in 2010 is unfathomable.
I'm glad the palin/pawlenty/bachmann candidate got thoroughly drubbed, though I would have liked, even better, for Hoffman to have won, emboldening dipshits everywhere to challenge moderate Republicans.
Except for Maine, I have no problem with the outcome as it stands.
Spin is an amazing thing!
Who would know better than you, ignorant wingnut? For the record, I wholeheartedly believe everything I said. Care to expound on which part you think is disingenuous?
Spin? The teabag nutjobs are directly responsible for a republican seat going to a democrat. They are going to do the same thing with the Florida senate seat as well as numerous other seats held by moderate republicans. Great plan guys. Keep it up.
Pfft. How is a 4% loss being "thoroughly drubbed"?
You need to shift to their frame of mind, Kathy. Franken "clearly" beat Coleman in their minds, so 4% must be a veritable landslide.
Maybe you guys need to watch the Daily Show’s assessment of what this all means!
It was pretty good. Keep polishing those turds.
Haven’t you heard that all elections are local … so let’s look to Rushford Minnesota … the voters defeated the incumbent mayor and all three incumbent city council members that were on the ballot.
That say’s it all.
It had less to do with who was in power; it was a reaction to the times.
Pawlenty was smart not to seek a third term. Look at all the current Governors’ favorability ratings … they are all poor.
As ALEC pointed out, Corzine was DeanManWalking. In July, before all the heavy campaigning, Corzine was viewed unfavorably by 58 percent of voters, compared with 34 percent who said they admired him … he was going to have a difficult challenge regardless of whom the GOP offered.
Virginia was another case, and a rather interesting state. There were a number of legislative seats that where only one party competed. As large as the Republican margin was, it must be pointed out that only 41.9% of the voters currently active on the rolls participated … a rather poor showing overall and a decrease from the 45% that participated in the last gubernatorial election. If this were truly a “sea-change” there should be a major re-alignment in the state legislature … but based on what has been reported there are only three seats changing hands.
Second, the NY-23 race takes the Virginia voter turnout issue and magnifies it. Historically the past four elections have been :
2002 (off-year) McHugh 124,682 unopposed
2004 McHugh 160,079 versus Dem at 66,448
2006 (off-year) McHugh 106,781 versus Dem at 62,318
2008 McHugh 129,991 versus Dem at 69,112
Since Owens is sitting at 64,880 with 95% of the precinct counted plus potentially some overseas absentee ballots, it reasonable to say that he got what a normal Democrat would receive.
Now, consider that the Constitution Party (59,067) and the Republican Party (7,315), isn’t the obvious question why didn’t the voters show up ?
There are some 60,000 voters that sat this election out that should have been reliable Republican votes.
The Republicans clearly got creamed.
OK, so what are the lessons.
#1. As party’s select their nominees, they should focus on the increasing number of independent voters … not their shrinking party base. It’s all about elect ability. In Minnesota’s gubernatorial contest, if the DFL selects somebody that does not appeal to the independents, then it’s just a gift for the Independence Party. The MN-GOP (IMO) has already anointed Seifert as their nominee (unless the Brian Sullivan rumors become true), so they have already given the IP an opening. Considering how the VA and NJ gubernatorial contests were based on the past Governor, this does not bode well for Pawlenty’s party.
#2. Look at money and the Virginia race. The Republican McDonnell had a clear fundraising edge: He raised more than $21 million, while the Democrat Deeds raised $10 million in the general election and $6 million in a Democratic primary. Deeds’ upset victory over two better-funded rivals in the June 9 Democratic primary left his treasury empty. Deeds spent the summer raising money while McDonnell, who was unopposed for the GOP nomination, was on television defining himself as a moderate and a jobs creator. Once again in Minnesota, the MN-GOP will probably not have a contested primary … while if the Dems have a battle, it may have unintended consequences. We all remember the Lord Feris commercials being used by MN-GOP.
In summary, the election results have the same meaning as the Detroit Lions going 4-0 in the 2008 pre-season and then losing every game during the regular season.
Use these losses as a motivator.
The Minnesota gubernatorial contest will be decided by who is motivated versus who is apathetic. The MN-GOP is acting like a motivated party … whether their overall membership may be shrinking, they will be a force. The key may be how to minimize the Independence Party … as Coleman found out, having a viable IP candidate for dissatisfied voters to turn to can cost the election. It cannot be pointed out enough that 63,203 McCain voters turned their back on Coleman … it was not a stolen election … it was hardcore Conservatives rejecting RINO and TARP-supporter Coleman.
By the way, folks, last night's vote brought two additional votes for Pelosi's HCR bill.
New Jersey and Virginia will be free to opt out, but they won't.
Just like all those fiscally conservative governors who so loudly decried the stimulus plan, yet handed out innumerable novelty checks in press appearances.
Hypocrites
Well it since the money is going to be taken out of the paychecks whether they like it or not they might as well get some of it back. Calling people who use services for which they are forced to pay hypocrites is like calling a person who takes a handout from the person who robbed their house a beggar.
I know you believe it. It's still spin. Anyone with a brain can look at Virginia and see a shot was fired over the bough that we are not an America looking for radical left policies. Virginia is a swing state and numerous house members across the country should take note of what transpired last night. Ya, I would have loved to get NY 23 for a clean sweep, but, I'm happy with what we accomplished. To the liberals, keep up your attempts to take us to the far left. To the right, keep up the pressure to expose the left for what they are. If both things happen, 2010 will be a great year. Not a bad showing for a party that's "irrelevant"!
No problem with Blue Dogs whatsoever. I disagree with them on a lot, but at least they will show up in the same room and talk about stuff, unlike the cry baby, immature Republicans who now are not even showing up for climate change negotiations. You can talk to the Collin Peterson's of the world. You can't even talk to Cantor and Boner.
That district hasn't been held by a non-republican since 1853 (or thereabouts) Sure, he needs to legislate moderately (much like Tim Walz has done) but there's no reason for him to associate with the hypocritical spendthrift blue dogs.
Skozzafava threw her ENDORSEMENT to him. The voters voted. (I guess she may have thrown her VOTE to him, to be accurate)
Hehe, Nothing beats conservtive logic DtM, in the hypocrite-off. Bush had a "clear mandate" with his 1% victory, where-as the most liberal senator of all time Obama, solid win somehow proved we are a center-right country.
And no one ever said Franken had a clear win. That sucker was close as they get. The result was as clear as you could get with three different bi-partisan review panels/courts all coming to the same conclusion, but no one ever said it was anything but razor thin.
Anyone with half a brain knows Virginia is a state, not a country. These races are meaningless to the federal level. What difference does it make that 2 states elected conservo-fascists? After all, MN has been electing right-wing governors for years, yet we alway manage to go democratic for the president.
Just for the sake of accuracy, the only time I ever heard Bush talk about having a mandate was in 2004 when he had a majority of the popular vote — 50.7%. I might be wrong, but I don't recall him talking about a mandate when he barely beat Gore. Someone like T-Paw, or this new fella in NY, never eclipse 50% of the vote, so you have to say they are simply elected, but no mandate for their agenda.
I've never said Obama's election made us center-right. Struggling to find the logic in that point. It is clear, however, that the Obama who campaigned for President was way more Centrist than the lefty Senator Obama. All of those great speeches he gave as he was on tour were decidely moderate-left.
I respect how you don't generalize Republicans.
It is clear, however, that the Obama who campaigned for President was way more Centrist than the lefty Senator Obama
I would say it is just the opposite. He is acting much more centrist than he campaigned.
Specify the primary campaigning Obama or the general campaigning Obama. Once he started talking to the American people rather than the delegates, I saw a pretty clear shift toward center.
Keep telling yourself that it's meaningless. I'd do the same thing if I were in your shoes. And, you got me on MN voting democratic every time. Even when 49 other states don't
Perhaps you should reread Cman's comment before you fly off. He did not call Virginia a country.
Perhaps you should get a clue about subtlety. CMan's post clearly implies that because a republican won a governorship IN ONE STATE, that somehow THE WHOLE COUNTRY has now shifted to the right.
Virginia and New Jersey elected republican governors. What does this mean? It means the people of those states prefer the right to run their states. There is NO direct correlation between those elections and the postion the entire country is on the spectrum. To suggest there is, CMan, is REAL spin.
He is telling us that this is of local interest only. He is wrong. Thus the spin!
Pete — I guess we'll see won't we. Fact is you guys hear footsteps. How could Obama win so convincingly just one year ago, and then take his charm and charisma to NJ five times in three days and get snubbed? I guess the demographic that put him in the White House wasn't too interested in these elections, huh? I think he would have done himself better to stay at the White House and play basketball (while he wasn't paying attention to the returns). What the people were feeling in Virginia, others around the nation are also feeling. You may hope that not to be true, but, sorry!
In Virginia- the Democrat was not a liberal or even a moderate. He was a conservative who said that he would opt out his state from the public option and was against everything the Democrats are fighting for now. He also kept a distance from the President (who is popular in both NJ and Virginia) until he was called out on it. The Republican winner in Virginia, pretended to be a moderate and refused to invite Palin to his state.
Corzine is the Matt Entenza of New Jersey. Another Democrat who governs like shit. His Republican opponent talked about supporting the President and the President's agenda to bring jobs to NJ- and he won.
Teabaggers led by Palin, and other losers (Thompson, Armey etc) stuck their nutty brand of conservatism in this district that has voted GOP for 150 years and they lost it. However, they are fired up and will take that freak show on the road challenging moderate Republicans across the nation next year. I say let them do it for us.
Bottom line: Obama picked up two more votes in the House for universal health care, cap and trade, banking reform, immigration reform and ending Don't ask Don't Tell. The Republicans picked up two states which do nothing for their agenda except let them strut around like Cornish Hens.
Don't let them spin this as 'they' won something.
Yes, yes, of course. As Nancy Pelosi said today, "I feel like we won". OK, you're right. You won!
CMan,
You are spin. You live and breathe it. You repeat the right wing bullet points ad nauseum. Your comments are self minimizing.
Everyone sees it, except for you and your pathetic, spinning, teabagging brain.
Great Job!!
Actually, that district has been won by Democrats 17 times since the Civil War. Someone in the press spoke the opposite and now some people seem/want to believe it. Me, I simply checked the info on Google - I wonder why the media didn't.