Doug Grow over at MinnPost does an admirable job of breaking down where the race and it’s 17 candidates stand at this point. It’s definitely worth the read.
Personally, I wouldn’t add much to Grow’s analysis. I’m a bit more skeptical of a Coleman entrance into the race than Grow seems to be — every day that passes makes this more difficult for him and I’ve heard from more than one Republican that he would only be their candidate again over a lot of party loyalist bodies. That being said, he’s still a potential force and while he’d have (I think) insurmountable problems in getting the endorsement, Coleman would be likely to win the GOP primary.
On the DFL side, it’s very nice of him to look at all of the candidates, but there’s some obvious weeding that can be done at this point. This is not a statement about the relative merits of the various candidates, but simply a political reality. But, hey, the endorsement process has yielded its fair share of surprises…
Anyone out there have any predictions?
What is this? A post regarding one of the most important upcoming races for Minnesota in 2010 on here? WEIRD.
We should have been talking about this race some time ago. But for myself, I would like to know what the metro area DFLers say about the candidates. We get precious little information on them up here. Who's the most electable? I've heard talk in these parts about Dayton and Bakk, but I have seen some (very, very limited) polling suggesting Rybak may be the most viable.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/12/o...
RT Rybak is more popular than Mark Dayton. That was one of our findings when we looked at the Governor's race back in July and it's confirmed again on this poll. Rybak's favorability at 29/34 is a net 14 points better than Dayton's at 25/44 (and remember again that this is the most Republican district in the state, Rybak's numbers aren't in negative territory statewide- Dayton's might be.) Rybak is also more popular within his party at 57% favorability to Dayton's 48%.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/07/c...
[Norm] Coleman trails two out of the three potential Democratic candidates we tested him against for Governor. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak led 43-37 and former Senator Mark Dayton led 41-39 while Coleman held the 42-34 advantage against House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher.
GOP -
Race is now between Seifert and Emmer. Seifert wins endorsement on 3rd ballot.
DFL -
No endorsement at convention. Primary candidates Dayton, Entenza, Rybak, and Kelliher. Dayton drops out of the race during the summer. Kelliher wins primary.
Prediction: Kelliher wins a close endorsement battle thanks to superdelegate support. The endorsement carries her to a plurality victory in the primary with votes split between Dayton, Entenza and maybe one or two others who decide the endorsement process is bogus. Kelliher then runs a miserable campaign and gets hammered in the general election.
I would love to see Rybak as the candidate, but he has fallen into the endorsement trap and agreed to abide. You are persona non grata in the DFL if you don't abide, but unless you are the insider candidate, you won't get endorsed anyway.
Great analysis by Grow. You'd have to think that it is between Rybak and MAK for the DFL. One point he raises about staying power seems accurate to me…. I think that between the two of them, Rybak is the one who will gain steam over a long campaign. No disrespect to MAK, but it seems that her first impression is often the positive one, and then she fades from there.
I'm completely with Grow on the GOP side. Norm is the only one who excites me. I still maintain that his gift is at the local level — he was not cut out for the Senate stage, attempting to go after the UN, etc. His gift is to find a problem and fix it. That is much more suited to statewide politics.
Would love to see a strong IP candidate. Two who would be game changers (but who I have zero reason to believe they will) would be Bill George, former CEO of Medtronic who is one of the "good guys" of Minnesota business and has always shown nonpartisan civic interest. The other would be Jim Ramstad, who if I got my wish would run for Governor as an IP candidate and win. But this last paragraph is pure dreaming, probably won't happen.
A run by Ramstad would present me with a serious quandary: I really like the man and the politics he stands for and I quite frankly can't imagine NOT voting for him. My only fear would be that the Republican would win because I'm pretty certain conservatives will vote as a bloc for the GOP candidate and get a plurality, but the DFL certainly does not now and likely never will have a lock on my vote. I'd gladly vote for Rybak, but MAK hardly thrills me: she got seriously out-manuevered by Pawlenty and I fundamentally want to see someone who can get things done.
The biggest problem I see Rybak having is his current job. Competing statewide means being viable in the suburbs, and Rybak is Mayor of Minneapolis. I know that sounds obvious, but think about it a little bit longer. Mayor of the biggest city in the state.
Minneapolis sucking is an article of faith in the suburbs - especially among suburban Democrats. It justifies the long commute, the upside-down mortgage you bought during the boom, the host of GOP neighbors of the loopier variety, the works. No statistics about the crime rate plummeting, the city government's solid efforts at greening the city, the school's finally getting some extra money, etc. can touch this. Minneapolis is the dirty machine city their liberal butts moved out of.
Take that negativity and triple it and you have the moderate's view, triple it again to get the Republican's. For many suburbanites, Minneapolis has to be crap hole - it justifies the mortgage payments. Rybak is mayor, and has been for eight years. He'll start sinking. It's a pity - he's actually a pretty excellent politician.
I live in the metro (North Minneapolis), and although I'm personally supporting John Marty in the caucuses due to his positions on ethics, finances and health care, I think Rybak or Dayton would both play really well statewide. Dayton already has name recognition, and Rybak has a lot of support due to his work on the Obama campaign. Rybak also strikes me as the most Obama-like candidate, and could likely run well campaigning against "Pawlenty's 3rd term" much as Obama campaigned against Bush.
I think Dayton plays better than Rybak statewide, but I still think Rybak is the more skilled politician of the two. By quite a lot.
The "Pawlenty's 3rd term" thing would work for Siefert or Emmer but not for Coleman, one reason he would be a strong candidate in this race.
Jesse, thanks for the info and perspective!
For DFL endorsement purposes, I think Grow is onto something with his many-candidates-leads-to-a-compromise-candidate theory. The Kelliher and Rybak camps will not bend toward each other, leaving someone like Paul Thissen to accumulate delegates from the other camps and run right up the middle toward the endorsement. A Thissen candidacy would actually lead to a DFL victory, for a change.
Really? Thissen? Tell me more.
As an outsider, someone who will never step foot into a DFL caucus or convention, I agree. Thissen is an appealing candidate. Very smart, energetic, gives the impression that he has less to lose and is less beholden to anyone, so can be more honest on his positions.
Thissen vs. a right like Siefert could produce a DFL win.
The problem with that theory is that a number of the candidates and their supporters would like nothing more than to have no endorsement at the convention. Thissen seems like a really good guy, and would probably be a better general election candidate than most of the field, but its just not going to happen.
Since there have been few debates (none that I have made it to) I researched the candidates via video found at the uptake and determined that if the dfl delegates are wise (which given the win % of previous dfl gov. candidates they are not) they will endores Thissen, Bakk, or Kelly. I believe these three are perceived as more moderate than the front runners and they present themselves well (I think many voters choose based on candidate likeability more than policy positions.) Of the front runners I think Rybek is most electable and Dayton would likely lose the general. While I agree with Dayton's tax the rich theme, with current large dfl majorities in the legislature, voters will be looking for more of a moderate for gov.
Ole Savior!