Well, Norm is out.
As much as I want to say “I told you so,” everything points to this decision legitimately being up in the air for the past week. Pat Anderson, for example, seems to have genuinely thought Coleman was getting into this thing. And there was evidence of Coleman doing polling. Was Norm’s dream of turning the Governor’s mansion into the Playboy mansion finally put to rest by bad polling numbers, or did the longtime politician just quietly decide that it was time to take a break? Honestly, I don’t know and I don’t care. Bottom line is this: No more Norm.
So, where does this leave things?
To put it succinctly: it leaves the DFL candidate running against Marty Seifert with Tom Horner running as an Independent.
That’s my best guess people; now tell me how I’m wrong. Well, before you do, I suppose I’ll explain my thinking: Marty’s winning this endorsement race and I’ll bet decent dollars that he comes out of it with the nod. Sure, there’s the possibility that Coleman’s official departure from the scene will push some delegates to reevaluate the field, take a second look at Emmer, blah, blah, blah. I don’t buy it. Seifert’s going to be the guy because he’s been working harder, hustling better, and just plain seems to want it more.
But guess what, I’m fine with either one of them (meaning either Seifert or Emmer—if Sen. Hann is the candidate I’ll hold a happy hour for Publius readers and buy the first round) because they’re both firmly in the deep end of the GOP party-pool. Seriously, I can’t wait for the inevitable Seifert (or Emmer) pivot to the middle after the endorsement (I don’t think there will be a contested primary on the GOP side)—you know those votes you took in the legislature? Yeah, all of those are public record.
Which is precisely why I think Tom Horner is going to get in this as the IP candidate. The GOP candidates are far-right, the DFL will go to a primary, and now there’s no alternative in Norm Coleman: Horner’s a bright guy and I’m sure he realizes this is the best shot an IP candidate will have in a long while. Just take this Horner quote Eric Black published:
“Does Norm Coleman deciding not to run make it a different kind of race and campaign against people who don’t have broad name id?” Horner asked himself aloud. “Absolutely. Is that a better opportunity for an Independence Party candidate? Absolutely.”
Oh, and Horner just officially formed an exploratory committee. But here’s the thing: Horner is a former Republican and definitely on the conservative side of the aisle. So, with far-right GOP candidates, does he end up just splitting the ticket on the GOP side and pulling a few independents in, or does he manage some support from moderate democrats?
This is about to get interesting…
Given the ass kicking you guys are going to take in Massachusetts tomorrow, I don’t think it matters. The DFL candidate for Governor will lose. If you can’t win a special election in Massachusetts where you have a 3 to 1 advantage, how you gonna win in Minnesota? Change…is on the way.
I agree, that nationally, we are screwed. Minnesota is different than the national scene because there is huge democratic enthusiasm to expunge the TPaw legacy of destruction. Massachusetts is horrible for us right now. The governorship will be DFL. Sorry Small Fry.
Alec, where do you get the idea that there is huge Democratic enthusiasm here?
Minnesota is not Mass. In this case its the republicans that have held the Gov’s seat for 16 of the last 20 years. They are the incumbents. Besides, independents are 51% of the voters in Mass and the 3 to 1 is what’s left over.
Either way, we deserve to lose. We’ve endorsed a weak, elitist, entitled candidate for Senate there. I am disappointed with the way the Democrats (In the Senate. The House has been stellar with the agenda.)have pissed around with the majority and spent too much time reaching across the aisle just to get kicked and set up with the discussion of the discussion of health care and has pushed everything else back on the burner. I’m hoping that maybe now Obama will feel the fire under his butt and get involved in the Senate and set the goals.
Nancy Pelosi and the House has delivered, the White House and Senate leaves a lot to be desired and lots of excuses of why the agenda is not being fulfilled.
DJZ - many Republicans got trounced in 2006 thinking just like you do. Voters are anti-establishment. The Democrats are the establishment. I know it is not fair, but thats the way it is.
DFL: RT Rybak
GOP: Marty Seifert
IP: Tom Horner
We win.
I can say that with decreasing confidence but for almost all the other candidates, with Bakk, Rukavina, Marty and Gaerner being the only exceptions.
If popular statewide incumbents are losing in Massachusetts, how are Democrats in swing districts possibly going to stay in office?
Once again: this is Minnesota. Massachusetts is another state, fa, far away.
Another point: the Massachusetts special election is today. The Minnesota gubernatorial election is ‘way off in November, nine (all your fingers, only one thumb) months from now.
Can you grasp that? It really isn’t very hard.
“If popular statewide incumbents are losing in Massachusetts, how are Democrats in swing districts possibly going to stay in office?”
I didn’t know the incumbent (Ted Kennedy) was running from the grave. It’s one for the history books!
As usual the Democrat will cry about how they need to raise taxes. The Republican will beat them over the head with it. Democrat gets the usual 35% of the vote, Republican get 45% of the vote. Republican wins. Repeat after 4 years. Whats new.
I’m not sure Seifert would be my choice but I know it wouldn’t have been Norm.
Emmer has been described as “Jesse with a brain”. He does his homework. He knows how to connect with people. It’s not manufactured - it’s natural. Just ask Margaret, she can’t help herself - she likes him too!
Tom Emmer is a divisive person. He stated, unequivocally, that one cannot be both a “freedom loving American” and a Democrat. To Democrats who sacrificed and risked everything for their country in foreign wars, that is hurtful and disgusting. He has never apologized for disrespecting DFL vets who sacrificed more than he has ever contemplated.
Emmer couldn’t beat Ventura in a game of tic-tac-toe. And anyone who knows Emmer will tell you the guy has never done a day of homework in his life.
Tom Emmer is an extremist who has made his career out of defending insurance company payouts to injured and maimed children and survivors of loved ones who died because of negligence. I can’t wait until we get a chance to focus on him.
Marty is not going to win because he has no personality or warmth. He can’t connect with people. His inability to instill confidence and affability is just not there, that only leaves a goofy walking sound byte from a funny looking angry guy.
GOP: Emmer
IND: Horner
DFL: Dayton (he’ll beat Matt, MAK and whomever else goes to the primary)
Dayton becomes the next governor.
Paul Thissen will ward off any serious independent challenge and will win the governor’s race for the DFL for the first time since 1986.
The tax issue is a divisive one, and Matt Entenza will win over independents to win the governorship because he hasn’t been promising tax increases on the campaign trail.
Matt Entenza has been using Republican talking points and pushing failed Republican policies, but do you really think anyone fixated on taxes is actually going to vote DFL? Just how stupid is Matt Entenza? Wait, the fact that this corrupt liar thinks he is a viable candidate answers that question.
Preventing tax increases isn’t exactly a “failed Republican” strategy- It’s been winning them elections for the last couple of decades.
I didn’t say it was a failed strategy - I said it was a failed policy. What is a failed strategy is a Democrat adopting failed Republican policies. That is, Matt Entenza has both a terrible economic plan AND a terrible campaign strategy.
Is that how they became a minority in both chambers of congress, lost the presidency, and have a minority of state houses?
If that’s winning, I certainly want no part of it.
Until I see polling data otherwise, the MN GOP field is incredibly weak. I am looking forward to seeing Rybak, Dayton, and Bakk’s fundraising totals.
You folks are totally missing the point. The Democrats are seen as being the establishment, incumbent party. Unemployment, inflation, wasteful spending - whether it is fair or not are problems that the DEMOCRATS have failed to fix…from the perception of the voter.
Unless you guys can figure out how a Democrat can win the Governorship with 28% of the vote, I dont see it happening.
As far as the Minnesota Governor’s race goes, the Republicans are the establishment, incumbent party. Whoever runs as a Republican runs (fairly or not) on Governor Pawlenty’s abysmal record. Sure, his position on taxes was popular, but his overall record on running the state — nope. Pawlenty got by with a goofy grin and an ability to blow off unccomfortable questions. His successor will have a real hard time doing that.
Look for lots of bridge-collapse pictures in the months to come.
“Unless you guys can figure out how a Democrat can win the Governorship with 28% of the vote, I dont see it happening.”
I’m guessing it will be somewhat similar to how Democrats have clean sweep of every other statewide office, where they quite clearly and obviously got more than 28% of the vote.
In addition, if a former GOP-er (Tom Horner) enters as an Independent, that will siphon away votes from whomever the GOP candidate ends up being.
Finally, I’ll reiterate the fact that the incumbent is a Republican, though that doesn’t seem to penetrate no matter how many times people point that out to you.
Dayton has been in this raise for a long time; will be interesting to see if he has raised more than Paul Thissen and Matt Entenza
I don’t believe I am missing the point when Marty Seifert is down 16 points to Mark Dayton (Mark Dayton!).
http://www.twincities.com/ci_14184529
And this is before Mark unloads a veritable orgy of cash upon his opponents.
With Mark Dayton not just talking about, but virtually pledging a tax increase… Even the weak republicon field will defeat him.
No, its just that Dayton is being honest and understands economics. I realize that doesn’t jive with Matt Entenza’s Republicon agenda.
Except that there’s polling data that says exactly the opposite of what you are saying.
What’s Matt talking about? Increasing revenues? Same thing.
We have cut to the bone in this state and local governments are suffering and property taxes are soaring. It takes leadership at the state level to decide where taxes and fees can be levied fairly to make the budget and fund those things which are important to us.
Mark Dayton and Tommy Rukavina have been honest about where that revenue stream should come from.
Maybe not. Entenza may just be lying, since he is a serial liar. But according to Dyna, Entenza wants to keep taxes low because he thinks the resulting economic growth will result in greater revenue. Its classic Republican supply side bullshit, and it doesn’t work.
Minnesotans have a nasty tendency to believe that divided government is a good thing.
Prediction, Part 1: we’ll have DFL majorities in the House and Senate and no DFL governor.
Prediction, Part 2: Minnesota will continue its inexorable economic decline, accelerated.
I will guess, but not predict, that in 2014 Minnesotans still won’t understand what’s happening.
Because Minnesotans are leary of giving full control (house, senate, gov) to the DFL, we would be smart to nominate a personable second tier candidate, that connects well with voters and could define him (or her) self as more moderate. I think Thissen, Kelley, Bakk are good possibilities. Of the first tier, R.T. is my fav. I think Dayton and MAK might be perceived as likely to rely too heavily on taxes to resolve our budget woes. For some reason I just don’t like Entenza, and never really consider him when handicapping the race or deciding whom to support.
Dayton and our other candidates are beating Seifert and Emmer in the polls because nobody much beyond their districts knows who they are. After a few saturation ad placements of tracker’s videos of Dayton’s, Rybak’s, Thissen’s, Rukavina’s, and Bakk’s virtual promises to raise taxes their name recognition will be up… But they’ll be inexorably tied to tax increases.
Matt Entenza is the only candidate with a viable plan to grow our way out of this defecit in the tradion of the Minnesota miracle. We can’t pass a tax increase until 2011 and it won’t bring in revenue until 2012 or 2013. By that time the Obama stimulus program may make the need for a tax increase moot.
By following Matt Entenza’s plan to grow our way out of the deficit by reducing our consumption of imported energy we can cut the cost of government and increase revenues faster than we can with taxes. And we can get started and put Minnesotans back to work this year with a bonding bill to fund energy conservation in our state government facilities.
Wow, Dyna, is that really what Entenza is saying? Because if it is, Entenza is far worse than I ever imagined. He is not only a corrupt liar, but he is recycling failed Republican supply side economics. What an idiot.
Matt isn’t saying he won’t raise taxes. But he’s not promising to raise taxes. State and local governments spend incredible amounts of money on energy in Minnesota- Minneapolis, St.Paul, MNDOT, and the state patrol each spend over two million dollars a year on motor vehicle fuel every year. Our school busses cover over 60,000,000 miles a year- that translates into at least $20,000,000 in fuel a year. We have high schools that are saving over $100,000 a year in energy costs after energy upgrades- and we have over 400 high schools in Minnesota!
The opportunities for savings are huge… So instead of blindly calling for a tax increase, why don’t the other candidates join Matt in supporting energy conservation and homegrown Minnesota energy?
What is the school bus plan, Dyna, ethanol? Not even Matt Entenza is that stupid.
I find it interesting that somehow you know the outcome of this election before it has been run. And that you’re so able to cavalierly dismiss polling data and then gloss over Entenza’s almost invisible name-recognition to some wistful idea of winning elections with “energy.”
And the idea (yours or Entenza’s) that we can grow our way out of our state deficits is directly contradicted by our own state economist.
http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/76758807.html
“We are unlikely — very unlikely — to grow our way out of the problem,” Stinson told legislative leaders this fall.”
The esteemed Mr. Stinson never said we couldn’t SAVE our way out of this mess.
Save our way out of this mess? Dyna, are you a closet Republican? No wonder you support Republicon Matt Entenza.
Entenza’s willingness to go his own way on the tax question is admirable, and in my opinion keeps him on the list of could-be Governors. As Dyna points out, Entenza isn’t saying “no new taxes”. He is simply saying that there are other methods of dealing with problems that need to be fully exhausted before we resort to taxing our citizens more.
As Massachusetts Senate candidate Martha Coakley is learning, the Democrats are unpopular now because they’re rightly perceived as arrogant, ideological and fixated on an agenda not supported by the people. Blaming their problems on Republicans will make them worse.
The only way the Democrats will win the Governor’s office is if they change their agenda.
“The only way the Democrats will win the Governor’s office is if they change their agenda.”
Or
“many Republicans got trounced in 2006 thinking just like you do. Voters are anti-establishment. The Democrats are the establishment. I know it is not fair, but thats the way it is.”
Which one is it?
McFry,
“The only way the Democrats will win the Governor’s office is if they change their agenda”
Are you saying this out of concern for the future of the Democratic Party? Do you have an alternate agenda to propose for them?
The agenda that was supported by 70% of the population was health care funding reform with a public option and cost containment measures. The majority of Democrats supported this. How much support did it get from the Republicans? Many modifications were made over time to the original proposals. In the end, although unhappy with these changes, the majority of Democrats continued to support reform. How much support has been forthcoming from the Republicans? The behavior of congressional Republicans would best be described as “arrogant, ideological and fixated on an agenda not supported by the people.” The election in Massachusets isn’t over yet but regardless of the outcome, it is premature to draw conclusions about what this means to either political party. Angry people are sending a message but not all of these angry people are innocent victims and the focus of their anger is not only Democrats.
This race is wide open. I think Coleman would have won this race. Now that he is out, it is any party’s race. I think Minnesotans will vote based on the strength of the candidate, not which party has momentum. I see the following candidates being the only ones who could win this election:
Dayton
Thissen
MAK
Rybak
Entenza
Siefert
Horner
I know there are way more than these 7 candidates in this race, but our next Governor is someone on that list.
LOL! Dayton cant win.
Siefert? Nope.
Tom Emmer will be the Rep. nominee.