Aaron
Undecided: 25%
Kelliher: 16%
Entenza: 14%
Rybak: 13%
Thissen: 11%
Rukavina: 10%
Marty: 9%
Bakk: 3%
Gaertner: 1%
Sean
Kelliher: 22%
Rybak: 18%
Thissen: 15%
Entenza: 12%
Undecided: 9%
Rukavina: 6%
Kelley: 5%
Marty: 5%
Bakk: 3%
Gaertner: 3%
Zack
Kelliher: 25%
Rybak: 20%
Thissen: 15%
Entenza: 9%
Undecided: 9%
Rukavina: 8%
Kelley: 5%
Bakk: 3%
Gaertner: 3%
Marty: 3%
Matt is conflict averse, and is really afraid that the various campaigns will hate him for making a prediction. As a result he submitted these meaningless numbers. Please feel free to mock him relentlessly. [Matt adds: my numbers are as meaningless as the ones above—no one knows a thing right now. And I’m just too nice to hand out single-digit predictions… yeah…]
Undecided: 20%
Bakk: 10%
Entenza: 10%
Gaertner: 10%
Kelley: 10%
Kelliher: 10%
Marty: 10%
Rukavina: 10%
Rybak: 10%
Thissen: 10%
UPDATE: Jeff is late, but adds:
Kelliher: 22%
Rybak: 20%
Thissen: 12%
Undecided: 11%
Entenza: 11%
Kelley: 9%
Bakk: 7%
Rukavina: 5%
Marty: 3%
Gaertner: 2%
I see Sean and Zack have very similar positions. Being too lazy for the math, I’ll just say ditto to Sean’s predictions, with slightly lower for Entenza, let’s say 10%,and slightly higher for Rukivina (8%).
It’s my sense that the numbers don’t matter too much tomorrow night, compared to whose supporters choose to move on to senate district conventions where delegates to the state convention are selected.
Yeah, when Zack sent his predictions around I looked at them and said “Well… basically thats what I think is going to happen.” My only other thought is that all of those could be high by a few points and the undecideds will come in significantly higher.
Haha. Look at the silly guy who can’t make predictions.
Also, no way does Couragementunm tie with Marty.
That’s all I have to add to this.
Matt is also math-averse. (Though many caucusgoers will doubtless be giving it 110%)
Intentional—I was trying to be a pain in Zack’s ass
Ole Savior: 99%
Uncommitted: 1%
Bakk: 0%
Entenza: 0%
Gaertner: 0%
Kelley: 0%
Kelliher: 0%
Marty: 0%
Rukavina: 0%
Rybak: 0%
Thissen: 0%
Just kidding.
I’m not Rybak’s biggest fan, but I think Raymond Thomas will take first place in the metro area, and with Dayton’s name not on the ballot, most of greater Minnesota as well, except for SDs 5 and 6, and maybe a one or two other districts in NE Minnesota, which will go for favorite sons Rukavina and Bakk. I’ll also be watching to see if Raymond Thomas beats Thissen and Kelliher in their own SW Minneapolis districts, since they all three share the same base.
I think the turnout numbers and percentage of uncommitteds will be more important.
Whew! Do you think this prediction would really come true? Brrr! This is scary.. Please ask them to predict when would be the end of the world..
Anyone know why Emmer is refusing to release his campaign finance report? He already released what he raised. I dont’ understand.
MAK: 18%
Rybak: 16%
Thissen: 16%
Bakk: 13%
Entenza: 11%
Let it please please please be MAK.
Wow what a gift that would be.
Even if she was the endorsed candidate, she’ll face the Dayton buzz saw on primary day.
But I think she’ll fall apart after the straw poll. She has no stump presence and to me, has a very “Hillary ‘08” approach; rack up superdelegates, hope the media narrative mails her in.
Yeah, exactly. Do you think Dayton is that powerful or that rich? I would think he’d be as attractive as Coleman was to us. Like left over refried beans.
You seem pretty level headed so while I got you, who do you like at the end of the day?
Up here, Dayton’s name resonates strongly with older voters, and those are the ones that show up. And as he’s got a veritable shi%-ton of money, along with a higher name recognition, he’s a contender.
It is also important to point out another factor I have seen at work up here in the NW quadrant of the state. The DFLers are very, very hungry for a gubernatorial victory. Party allegiance and purity don’t seem as important as electability. That criterion is hurting MAK, Kelley, and Rukavina in these parts. (Probably also not helping Entenza or Thissen)
So is all the talk about north dakota luring business away just talk or do you see it there? For example, do you know many people that work over there?
Not really. The fixed costs of relocation are too high to entice most businesses to relocate. Beyond that, it would require the business management to relocate to North Dakota, and the business opportunities in a state with a population of less then 700,000 is just not big enough.
The cost to relocate may be too high today but that’s subject to change over the course of any legislative session, right? Just curious is all.
I think if you were a business in MN, you’d probably be looking to relocate to a place with a bigger market (unless you specialized in agriculture, or oil production, in which case ND might be appealing).
The best line I’ve ever heard about North Dakota: “There are more people in line at Taco Bell in Los Angeles county then live in the entire state of North Dakota.”
The allure of North and South Dakota are not the market. It is the lower cost of business and access to a good employment pool.
When you just need 25 good people for a data processing center, Fargo will provide more than enough good candidates considering there are three colleges and universities in that metro.
That is why companies like US Bank, Cargill, and TCF have relocated certain data functions there (in case of Cargill, thousands of them).
It’s because the Dakotas (especially South Dakota) have some of the weakest, most ineffectual regulations on business in the nation. They’re definitely running for the race to the bottom.
Corporate taxes aren’t going to drain MN of business. I’d remind everyone that the Dakotas (and to some extent, this part of MN) have their very own cycle of boom-and-bust based on their agricultural economies.
One of the biggest employers in my area is actually hiring workers, and certainly not relocating: http://www.prairiebizmag.com/event/article/id/10399/group/home/
Jebus we are off-topic; and I have to caucus tonight! I’m bringing the donuts.
Corporate taxes are a tiebreaker.
If you feel the creative people you need for your business are here, you’ll locate here. If this is where all five of your founders have roots, you might locate here. If you feel that having close proximity to U of M for your R&D is important, you’ll probably locate here.
But in cases where everything is equal, and your products are sold all around the globe, why not put your processesing centers in Fargo or Sioux Falls?
With that said, back office data processing centers do not offer hte types of jobs we should be bending over backwards to bring to the state. I’d much rather get medical device, research, or other more entreprenurial types.
I never heard of digi-key. Good for them.
If my morning math serves me right, here are the totally scientific composite prognostication results:
Kelliher 23.25%
Rybak 17.75%
Undecided 13.5%
Thissen 13.25%
Entenza 11.5%
Rukavina 7.25%
Marty 5%
Kelley 4.75% (a strong showing considering he was left off of Aaron’s results)
Bakk 4%
Gaertner 2.25%
I predict that Mauer signs by midnight tonight.
Frankly, I should probably be more civic-minded, but that’s the only prediction I care about. I’m happy caucuses are tonight because it’s a few hours I won’t be obsessively refreshing http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Here’s mine:
–Rybak 15% (due to executive experience, metro area will attend for straw poll)
–Rukavina, 13% (unions, creative advertising, already bringing jobs, passionate)
–MAK 13% (disappointing campaigning, no pizazz, but good name recognition)
–Thissen 13% (smooth presence, keen foresight)
–Entenza, 10% (not abiding by endorsement, but has pizazz)
–Kelley 8% (innovative, but need something huge to stand out)
–Marty 8% (health care promise broken by nat Dems)
–Bakk 5% (union, relates to folks)
–Others: small percent each
Undecided: 13% (not everyone will know, not activists, or choices are too wonderful!)
The Rukavina vs. Bakk battle will be interesting. Also intriguing is which candidate picks up the Rukavina and Bakk support once they drop out (assuming they drop out) down the road. I think Paul Thissen would be a likely second choice for the Rukavina/Bakk camps. Maybe Dayton?
Rukavina sweeps the central core of the Range. Bakk does better in the sticks. Their vote total from Range precincts will total just over half the total Range vote with the rest split up among the other candidates. Entenza probably does OK up here, with MAK, Marty, Thissen, and Kelley — maybe even Rybak — in the mix. But this is definately a year where I or anyone else could be very surprised by what actually happens. The only thing I’ve decided is that I’m going to make up my mind in the car on the way to caucus.
I expect at least two Range lt. gov candidates at the convention. That will have some influence on where Rangers go post Bakk or Rukavina falter. One of them could make it to the convention as a gov candidate, but not both.
After the straw, we can start to ask questions like: How many jobs were created in Minneapolis due to budgeting and planning? Etc.
Oh, and it IS just a straw. Caucus goers are not necessarily activists, in fact, probably not the endorsing kind of activist (since the going up the ladder delegate thing is INCREDIBLY BORING).
Candidates should use it to determine: Do I have name recognition? Did people understand my message? We are truly blessed this election. Thank you, candidates.
Rukavina is going to be the surprise!! He’s going to hammer Bakk in the 218. MAK is going to disappoint. The elite women love her, but the average DFLer I’ve talked to doesn’t seem too impressed. RT, Thissen, Entenza are going be alternatives and prevent her from scoring a resounding victory tonight. I think she’s the one to beat at the convention, but getting by regular DFLers tonight and at the primary, or even the statewide electorate will be tough for her.
Other than Marty, I think MAK would be the biggest possible mistake. She is boring to listen to, has not created campaign buzz, and is trying to win simply based an some kind of idea of inevitability. That being said, however I fully expect MAK to take the endorsement simply because of our history of recent endorsements (MAK is too similar to Moe, Hatch, and Humphrey).
Humphrey wasn’t the endorsed candidate in ‘98. Mike Freeman was.
Okay, I’m a little late, but my new prediction is:
Rybak: 22%
Kelliher: 20%
Uncommitted: 14%
Marty: 10%
Thissen: 7%
Rukavina: 7%
Entenza: 7%
Bakk: 6%
Kelley: 4%
Gaertner: 2%