Tracking Minnesota Politics Since 2005
Word is the departure was mutual, but I really don’t know much more than that—not that it’s all that big of news anyway; campaigns are liable to switch CMs before the big-show begins.
Until the campaign settles on a permanent replacement, Bob Hussey will serve as the temporary manager. You can read all about Hussey here, but here’s a quick highlight reel: Clinton ‘92, DOJ, private public relations, freelance writer, Minnesotan.
El, who will you be endorsing and when can they expect to hear from you?
Update: I am hearing that AFSCME Council 5 has endorsed Tarryl Clark for Congress in CD6. This is a huge benefit for the Clark campaign, and perhaps part of the reason Tinklenberg has withdrawn his name.
Like we’ve said before on this blog, Tarryl is a strong candidate out of CD6, having been endorsed in every campaign she’s run there. While she has some catching up to do with Tinklenberg and Reed, I believe that she has enough time and support to do so.
Oh, and keep an eye here.
UPDATE:
Tarryl’s campaign site is up and running, including this video:
I am pleased to announce that we have recently opened a permanent campaign office in St. Paul and added a full time Finance Director, Field Director, and two additional staffers to the campaign.
Our finance director, Berrett Gall, has a long track record in politics. He most recently worked as finance director for El Tinklenberg (against Michele Bachmann). Berrett has also worked for the DNC and for Congressman Earl Pomeroy in his native state of North Dakota.
Our field director, Nick Conti-Masanz, has worked on campaigns throughout Minnesota. Nick was most recently El Tinklenberg’s field director; he also served as a frield organizer for Patty Wetterling in 2006 and has worked in Congresswoman Betty McCollum’s Congressional office.
Gall has a lot of work in front of him, Gaertner’s fundraising numbers have been abysmal.
El Tinklenberg has about $500,000 in the bank. This is frustrating for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the airtime you can buy with a half a million dollars. But Joe’s analysis gets to the core of the remaining dough, and that is that most likely the Tinklenberg campaign was simply overwhelmed by the amount of money they had pouring in in the last few weeks of the campaign.
It also highlights one of the problems with the netroots and that is specifically the use of ancillary services like ActBlue. The argument in favor of using sites like ActBlue is it allows for the netroots to quantify their contributions to campaigns, but what happens when you donate through ActBlue is that a check gets cut by ActBlue and sent to the campaigns you donate to. That’s why usually I’d send people straight to campaigns fundraising pages, that turn around can be a real problem for campaigns. How much of that 500K did Tink get from Monday the 3rd of November on? I don’t think it was a substantial amount — just something to consider.
But finally the most important thing to consider is — what happens to those fat stacks of cash now? I think (and excuse me if I’m wrong, I’ve got finals and just don’t care enough to do the minutes of research) he can dole out $2000 to individual candidate committees, he could give large sums to party units or… he could just sit on it and run again in 2 years. El would be 60, which isn’t particularly old for a member of congress, he’d have a lot of money to start his campaign with and he’d have one election cycle of congressional campaign experience.
We’ll have to watch what he does with his money to get a good grasp on what he intends to do in two years.
BOB ANDERSON 40642 10.04%
MICHELE BACHMANN 187805 46.41%
EL TINKLENBERG 175784 43.44%
Who are these people that voted Bob Anderson? The IP endorsed El Tinklenberg! MPR’s Bob Collins:
Who is Bob Anderson? Michele Bachmann’s best friend.
Bob [Collins]’s theory of politics in Minnesota is if you put an Independence Party candidate not named Jesse Ventura on a ballot, Republicans win.
Independence Party fans hate me for saying that but for the most part, it’s true.
They can logically point to Al Franken’s Senate race tonight — so far — as proof the theory doesn’t stand up.
And I’ll counter with Bob Anderson, a veritable unknown who is clearly pulling votes from Elwyn Tinklenberg tonight, paving the way — again, so far — for Michele Bachmann.
MinnPost’s Doug Grow (emphasis mine):
Anderson – who had no money and only one issue (health insurance coverage for mental health problems) – managed to get 10 percent of the vote running as the Independence Party candidate.
Funny thing, though. Anderson really wasn’t the IP’s candidate. Tinklenberg was. In fact, the IP hierarchy – such as it is – is offended by Anderson, who is seen as a gadfly.
But when the IPs endorsed Tinklenberg, Anderson grabbed a golden opportunity. He ran, unopposed, in the primary as the IP representative. He won the IP spot on Tuesday’s ballot and, coupled with that comfortable Minnesota name, managed to win thousands of independent votes.
Here’s the kicker:
It could also be that nobody offered to give him anything. No matter, Anderson said he spent less than $200 on his campaign, which begs the question: If he’d spent $300, could he have won 15 percent of the 6th District vote?
More at MinnPost, MPR’s News Cut.
Sidenote: if it was an Instant Runoff Voting election, I strongly believe Tinklenberg would have won.
CD6: Bachmann 46, Tinklenberg 45, Anderson 6
CD3: Paulsen 46, Madia 41, Dillon 10
Sen: Coleman 44, Franken 39, Barkley 16
Pres: Obama 49, McCain 46, Other 3
Regular MNpublius readers have seen a lot of polls and SUSA has always been the right-wing outlier. One reason is that SurveyUSA only polls people it knows are likely voters. The problem with that, is that in 2004 for example, over 20% of the electorate voted with the same day registration process. If there is a remotely similar situation this Tuesday, be mindful that SUSA would have not polled any of those people.
Another way to look at this is to compare KSTP/SUSA to other polls. Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s breakdown of recent polls on the presidential race in Minnesota:
So when Survey USA and KSTP say that Obama is only leading by 3, how far off might their polling for Senate, CD3 and CD6?
If you’re interested, dig into the crosstabs: CD3, CD6, Senate, President. Normally I consider the crosstabs are worthy of further analysis but I don’t feel like bothering digging into a throwaway poll.
UPDATE: Paul Demko at Minnesota Independent points to Nate Silver of The Plank and FiveThirtyEight:
Don’t worry too much about that SurveyUSA result in Minnesota, which shows Obama just 3 points ahead. SurveyUSA’s polling in Minnesota has been very, very weird all year; they’ve never shown Obama with larger than a 6 point lead in their likely voter model, and had McCain ahead in the state as recently as October 1st. SurveyUSA does not have a Republican lean in general, but in Minnesota, it has consistently had a huge one.
The ENPR prediction is particularly noteworthy because it has become (especially since Novak’s retirement earlier this year) largely a repository of right wing talking points. If even ENPR thinks Paulsen and Bachmann are going to lose, they probably are.
On the Senate side, ENPR predicts a Franken win but Sabato sees Coleman hanging on. I think the race is a jump ball, though this developing story could put a finger on the scale…
In the Sixth, editorialists avoid nuclear outrage by picking Tinklenberg. They weigh in for the first time on you-know-what; Bachmann’s “anti-America” paradigm “adds to the list of bizarre incidents and statements that undercut her credibility as a political leader.”
Even though the Star Tribune has gone far to the right, nobody in their right mind can endorse Bachmann. Interesting though, is that they absolutely destroy Erik Paulsen but cannot bring themselves to endorse Madia so they opt for a “non-endorsement“ instead:
But Paulsen’s endorsement interview was disappointing. His answers on energy, health care and foreign policy lacked depth, detail and vision. Paulsen performed better at debates, but did not make the case that he has the depth needed to be a strong, independent leader in Congress.
Paulsen was a fiscal and social conservative in the Legislature, voting for measures that this newspaper opposed. Why he’s casting himself as a moderate in this race is unclear. His conservative credentials are solid; he should have run on them.
Paulsen is farther right than the Star Tribune and they’re criticizing him for not running on his conservative credentials? They even point out how he’s trying to run as a moderate. While I am not at all surprised by the Star Tribune not endorsing Madia, the fact that they trash Paulsen so badly is rather telling.
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) has taped an advertisement apologizing for her televised comments calling Barack Obama anti-American, according to a Republican source familiar with her campaign’s decision.
Bachmann campaign spokeswoman Michelle Marston said the campaign will be airing a new advertisement this afternoon, but declined to comment specifically on whether Bachmann would be apologizing in the spot.
“You’ll just have to wait and see,” Marston said.
This is a desperate act by a desperate campaign. Bachmann is clearly unrepentant for her comments last week, in fact, she repeated them just yesterday. But in the face of terrible polls and increasing pessimism among her fellow Republicans, Bachmann taking the only shot she has left. Will it be enough? Your guess is as good as mine, but we can make it a little tougher on the Kissy Monster by donating to El Tinklenberg.
It was apparent from those interviews that all three seem to want to continue the Frenzel-Ramstad mold, but in our view Madia, a former Republican, offers the best hope that this tradition of moderation and bipartisanship will continue.
The candidates, no matter their party, believe that change is needed in Congress, but Madia attacks the issues head-on and is very specific in what those changes should be, notably with his prescription for balancing the federal budget and paring down the country’s debt, which is his top priority.
Indeed, Madia talks like a deficit hawk and says he is willing to work with both sides, including conservative bluedog Democrats and moderate Republicans, to achieve a balance budget.
On top of that, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza calls Madia a “slight favorite” to win in 12 days:
Democrat Ashwin Madia appears to have edged ahead of state Sen. Erik Paulsen (R) in this race in the suburbs of the Twin Cities. In a neutral year, Paulsen would likely win. But Madia’s grassroots campaign, his service in Iraq and the strong year shaping up for Democrats in the state make him a slight favorite.
But let’s not get cocky. As Matt reported yesterday, Republicans are spending $1 million in a last minute attempt to defeat Ash. Don’t let this seat slip out of our fingers. Donate today.
The former Blaine mayor and state transportation commissioner has a long history of demonstrated effectiveness. The list of accomplishments that have his fingerprints all over them include the National Sports Center in Blaine, a Highway 610 project that languished decades before he began to chase it down, the Hiawatha Light Rail Line and the Northstar Commuter Rail Line.
He will be the first to tell you he was not alone in these endeavors. His mode of operation has been pulling people together, forming bi-partisan coalitions and accomplishing things, an approach that is often missing in Washington, D.C.
Bachmann - 44%
Tinklenberg - 47%
An incumbent behind this late in the ball game is in big, big trouble. Perhaps that is why Bachmann was included on the GOP’s “Death List”
In other CD 6 news, El is up with this great new ad…
This just continues to get crazier (from HuffPost):
Two sources aware of ad buys in Minnesota say that the National Republican Congressional Committee is pulling its media purchases from Bachmann’s race. If true, it is a remarkable fall for a congresswoman who, until recently, seemed relatively safe in her predominantly conservative district. The race had become closer in recent days — the NRCC had transferred funds from Rep. Erik Paulsen (MN-03) to Bachmann a little over a week ago.
In the days following her appearance on Hardball, however, Bachmann has watched as her challenger, El Tinklenberg raised more than a million dollars off her incendiary remarks. That surge in fundraising put Bachmann’s re-election in a far less certain position. Bachmann tried to stem the bleeding by telling the press she was sorry for her remarks. But with the national party now apparently pulling the plug, the situation has gone from bad to worse.
To be fair, this is likely not because the NRCC feels that the race is lost; it may be, but I doubt that it’s that much of a done deal at this point. More likely, and almost as damning, is that the NRCC has realized that it simply can’t afford to fight this battle with all the other contentious races around the country. Bachmann backed herself into a corner where it’s going to take more resources than the NRCC can muster in order to properly defend her (after all, she did raise over $1 million for her opponent). This is a bit of a catch-22 for the Republicans, however, because they’re pulling their ads because it’s getting too expensive to ensure a Bachmann win, but by pulling out they’re making that win all that more uncertain.
The bottom line is, no matter what the NRCC’s reasoning, that this is a good thing for El Tinklenberg and, by extension, Minnesota. Bachmann evidenced how totally nuts she is by calling for a new era of McCarthyism; this is not only dangerous, but it’s embarrassing for Minnesota. So, please, ensure that this woman’s career in politics comes to an end, donate to El Tinklenberg, volunteer on his campaign, or simply take a moment to learn about this compelling candidate. Our State’s dignity and our Country’s sanity may depend on it…
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