Here’s what I think. Regarding Obama: Kaine and Bayh won’t be the pick. Those were just press games. Indiana and Virginia are two states the Obama campaign thinks they can win and those little boomlets won Obama a couple of days of positive press in each state. On the other hand, I don’t think its going to be a complete surprise either. At this point, I’d put my money on either Joe Biden or Kathleen Sebelius. The variable that remains unknown, however, is Obama’s trust level with each of these candidates. I have no special insight into the mind of Barack Obama, but everything I read suggests that he has a very strong relationship with Sebelius and just an amicable one with Biden. Also, the absolute radio silence coming from team Sebelius is telling in and of itself. I am, therefore, going to go out on a limb and predict that he’ll pick Sebelius, with Biden as my second choice.
As for McCain, I don’t think it’ll be Ridge or Lieberman. I think the McCain campaign’s confidence is high right now, and my guess is that he doesn’t think he needs a Hail Mary pick. He also doesn’t need to pick Lieberman. Like Zell Miller in 2004, Lieberman’s every move will be candy for the press over the next couple of months. His profile will be high enough to rival whoever actually is the VP nominee. There is very little to gain by putting Lieberman on the ticket (other than the scorn of the right). My money is still on Pawlenty, with Lindsay Graham as my crazy, out on a limb, second choice (hey, McCain and Graham are best buddies and I think McCain really wants to pick someone he likes).
Sean adds: On the Democratic side I think that the shortlist contains Bayh, Biden, Kaine and Sebelius. My affection for Biden is already known. I think that at his age, 65, Barack Obama knows he can get a team player and not someone looking out for his own future. There is an increasing amount of chatter on the Republican side about picked Joe Lieberman and I think that Joe Biden is the Democrat best suited to debate Lieberman. Biden’s tendency to say dumb things arises as unforced errors — in debates he has been forceful, direct and very compelling. And I think he’s awesome. So why no Sebelius? Obama has been very pragmatic in all of the choices he’s made about his campaign so far and Sebelius would offend a great many Clinton supporters by putting a woman on the ticket that isn’t Hilary. So my pick is Biden with Kaine in second.
On the Republican side I am just agog with the thought that McCain might pick Joe Lieberman.
Please God — if you’re out there, please hear my call and let John McCain pick Joe Lieberman — please. I promise I’ll never take your name in vain ever again. Well… at least I’ll try.
Joe Lieberman on the ticket might re-burnish McCain’s maverick and independent credentials, but it would also keep social conservatives at home on election day. And John McCain cannot win with that key cog of the Conservative machine sitting out. So my wish is Joe Lieberman, but my gut tells me Tim Pawlenty (who will get massacred by Joe Biden at the VP debate) with Mitt Romney coming in a close, but still no cigar second.
This concludes my largely uninformed, basically guessing opinion.
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