Author Archive for Zack Stephenson

Was Pawlenty McCain’s First Choice?

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on August 31, 2008 at 8:29 am
, filed in General
. 29 Comments

John McCain’s announcement on Friday morning that Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would be his running mate left much of the Minnesota political community in a state of shock.   Most, if not all, Minnesota politicos expected that McCain was set to tap our very own Tim Pawlenty to be his running mate.  In fact, there was ample evidence that Pawlenty was on the cusp of veepdom.  Most striking was the fact that he had canceled his public schedule for Friday and Saturday, returned to Minnesota from Denver earlier than planned and had booked an “exclusive” interview on Meet the Press Sunday morning.  Multiple sources I spoke to indicated that Pawlenty was not acting unilaterally - he was instructed to take these steps.  Behind the scenes there were more signs.  Republicans sources I spoke to indicated that Pawlenty loyalists and family members were on their way to Minnesota and that Pawlenty’s inner circle was gearing up for a major announcement.  One person I spoke to reported that Charlie Weaver, a key member of Pawlenty’s inner circle, was seen at MSP on Thursday waiting for a flight to Ohio.  I’ve even heard rumors that a Secret Service detail was assigned to Pawlenty before being reassigned late Thursday (though I have found very limited evidence supporting this particular rumor).

So what happened?

Some people believe that Pawlenty was used as a decoy by the McCain campaign in an effort to distract attention away from their favored candidate, Sarah Palin.  This theory has led to widespread anger in the uper echelons of Minnesota Republican circles.  Many, many Republicans I spoke to were irate with the McCain campaign today.  In fact, an item in the Washington Post on Friday indicated that Pawlenty himself “felt manipulated” by the McCain campaign.  I can confirm from my own discussions with a Republican source that Pawlenty is very irritated at the McCain campaign right now.

A second possibility is that McCain had planned to pick Pawlenty until changing his mind late in the week.  This theory is supported by published reports indicating that McCain only met with Palin on Thurday morning (their only previous meeting was in February).  If Palin was a serious contender all along, one would expect that McCain would have met with her some time before the last minute (Obama met with Biden on August 6 - more than two weeks before announcing his selection).

But why would McCain change his mind?

Coming into the convention, McCain probably felt pretty good about his political position.  He was tied or ahead in many national polls and he was coming off a good month.  To add to his confidence, the opening of the DNC was dominated by questions about the Clintons and party unity.  McCain probably thought he didn’t need to take a risk by selecting a political unknown like Palin.  Pawlenty was the safe choice and there was no need to rock the boat.  Hillary Clinton’s homerun performance on Tuesday night, followed by Bill Clinton’s on Wednesday, however, changed the political landscape.  Looking at the prospect of an epic speech from Obama on Thursday night, perhaps McCain thought he needed a gamechanging pick. Perhaps in that very late hour, he pulled back from the edge and went a different way.

If true, it tells us a lot about John McCain and Sarah Palin.  If McCain had wanted to pick Pawlenty but decided against it at the last minute, it casts even more questions on Palin’s qualifications (she wasn’t even McCain’s first choice!)  Either way, I can tell you that John McCain shouldn’t expect many favors from Pawlenty loyalists in the coming weeks. Whether that affects his ability to win Minnesota is yet to be seen.

The Neutering of the Republican Convention

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on August 30, 2008 at 12:52 pm
, filed in General
. 5 Comments

The 2004 Republican National Convention was a major turning point in the Presidential race.  Speaker after speaker took to the podium and attacked John Kerry in heated, direct assaults.  Though many Democrats predicted that it would backfire, most pundits agree that the sustained negative attacks defined John Kerry in the public mind as a weak flip-flopper and went a long way towards winning the race for Bush.

In 2008, Republicans are even more in need of a barrage of negative attacks than they were in 2004.  Barack Obama is leading in the polls and the fundamental mood of the country is extremely unfavorable for Republican candidates.  Sadly for the GOP, however, two recent developments may make it impossible for the GOP to issue a sustained attack on Obama at the Republican convention.

  1. Sarah Palin: Until yesterday, everyone thought the soundbyte of the 2008 RNC would be “he’s not ready.”  With the selection of the most inexperienced runningmate since the 19th Century, McCain has made this attack far more difficult.  The New York Times reports that RNC organizers are already striking these attacks from speeches:

    2. Republican organizers said the convention aides in charge of reviewing every speech delivered from the lectern are now on the watch for blunt attacks on Mr. Obama’s readiness to lead. They are aware that such criticism in a high-profile setting would provide an opportunity for Democrats to make the same charge against Ms. Palin, who has almost no foreign policy experience and has been governor for just 20 months.

    This means team McCain must come up with an entirely new frame for Obama with only 60 days until the election. That’s a VERY tall order.

  2. Hurricanes:  Gustav is already drawing a lot of the press attention that would normally be given to Sarah Palin, but if it slams into Louisiana on Tuesday morning (which is expected) it will be THE news story of the day - killing the RNC’s Monday and Tuesday programing.  Moreover, are Republicans really going to throw political grenades as a hurricane slams into the Gulf Coast?  I’m skeptical.  To make matters worse, Gustav isn’t the only hurricane heading our way.  Hurricane Hanna is projected to skim across southern Florida on Thursday.  Yeah…Thursday.  As in, the day McCain is supposed to accept the Republican nomination.  McCain just can’t catch a break.

Stunning Comment From Senior McCain Advisor

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on August 30, 2008 at 12:09 pm
, filed in General
. 18 Comments

The Palin roll-out started with a bang, but has taken a bad turn in the last few hours. Much of the coverage is focusing in on Palin’s lack of experience and what that does to McCain’s central argument against Obama (hint: completely destroys it). On top of that, some major news outlets are digging into Palin’s troopergate controversy and the results aren’t great for the campaign. Cue Charlie Black, McCain’s senior adviser and lobbyist extraordinaire, who makes things a lot worse with this quote:

Mr. McCain’s advisers said Friday that Mr. McCain was well aware that Ms. Palin would be criticized for her lack of foreign policy experience, but that he viewed her as exceptionally talented and intelligent and that he felt she would be able to be educated quickly.

“She’s going to learn national security at the foot of the master for the next four years, and most doctors think that he’ll be around at least that long,” said Charlie Black, one of Mr. McCain’s top advisers, making light of concerns about Mr. McCain’s health, which Mr. McCain’s doctors reported as excellent in May.

Nice job Charlie, admit Palin is not qualified AND draw attention to McCain’s age in one sentence.

Amy Klobuchar on Sarah Palin

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on August 29, 2008 at 1:50 pm
, filed in General
. 13 Comments

As usual, Amy puts the Palin selection in perspective:

Sarah Palin: Alaska’s Michele Bachmann

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on August 29, 2008 at 11:36 am
, filed in General
. 68 Comments

Minnesotans wondering just who this Sarah Palin character is don’t have to look very far to find a very comparable politician.  Michele Bachmann, the Congresswoman from the 6th District, has a very similar profile.  Both are deeply socially conservative, have large families and have similar public personas.

Can a Bachmann style politician win a national election?  We’ll see.

UPDATE: Another example of Palin’s similarities to Bachmann:

The volatile issue of teaching creation science in public schools popped up in the Alaska governor’s race this week when Republican Sarah Palin said she thinks creationism should be taught alongside evolution in the state’s public classrooms.

Palin was answering a question from the moderator near the conclusion of Wednesday night’s televised debate on KAKM Channel 7 when she said, ‘Teach both. You know, don’t be afraid of information. Healthy debate is so important, and it’s so valuable in our schools. I am a proponent of teaching both.’

UPDATE 2: Michele Bachmann agrees:

Rep. Michele Bachmann, a freshman Republican from Minnesota, says Palin brings a lot to the table, even though she’s lacking in executive experience and doesn’t have national name recognition.

“Like me, Palin is a devoted mother of five who understands the importance of pro-life and pro-family values,” Bachmann said. “She’s proven herself to be a strong leader in Alaska, taking on pork barrel spending and making fiscal responsibility a top priority”

Republican National Delegate Says He’ll Vote Against Lieberman for VP Nominee

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on August 28, 2008 at 1:38 pm
, filed in General
. Closed

I was a guest on King Banian and Michael Brodkorb’s radio show yesterday (special thanks to King and Michael for letting me on) and Michael, who is also a delegate to the Republican National Convention, made some news.  Michael, in response to my direct question, said he would vote against Joe Lieberman at the Republican gathering if McCain selected him to be his running mate.

Now, Michael is as big a party loyalist as they come, so if he is willing to vote against Lieberman, I bet there are scores of other delegates who are prepared to do so.

We could be in for a wild ride next week.

Paulsen to Speak at GOP Convention

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on August 26, 2008 at 12:26 pm
, filed in General
. 18 Comments

Erik Paulsen will be taking the stage next week at the Republican National Convention, some time just before President Bush (who clocks in at a 32% approval rating in Minnesota) and Vice President Cheney (who clocks in at -147%).  The political chattering class is predicting that the Republican gathering will be a massive Obama bash fest and it will be interesting to see if Paulsen joins in the fun.

I would expect him to for two reasons: First, Paulsen and his allies have already shown a willingness to embrace the darkest side of professional politics.  In fact, just last week it was revealed that Paulsen allies were engaged is the most dispicable of campaign tactics: the push poll.  Will Paulsen encore that preformance with a negative barn-burner at the DNC?  It would be true to form.  Second, all indications are that the GOP wants their convention to be a reprise of the 2004 model: all negative, all the time.  I doubt the Republican big-wigs would allow Paulsen within ten feet of the podium unless he promises at least a few jabs at Democrats.

Paulsen is really making a name for himself as a negative campaigner and I’m not sure that is to his benefit in the 3rd.

Michelle Obama for President

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on August 25, 2008 at 9:56 pm
, filed in General
. 26 Comments

But seriously, she knocked that one out of the park.

Also, that Ted Kennedy tribute was something special.

It Came Together in Minneapolis

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on August 25, 2008 at 10:45 am
, filed in General
. Closed

A fun nugget in a WSJ article examining Obama’s selection of Joe Biden…

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama’s selection of Sen. Joe Biden to be his running mate reached a pivotal point in a secret meeting on the night of Aug. 6. Sen. Biden was whisked into a Minneapolis hotel room through a back entrance before Sen. Obama left for his Hawaii vacation. They talked one-on-one for 90 minutes. “It was spirited and pragmatic,” says one adviser who was briefed.

It looks like the Twin Cities had a role to play in the formation of both tickets this year.

Moderates Need Not Apply: The Strib Updates the Status of the Override Six

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on August 25, 2008 at 10:38 am
, filed in Minnesota House
. 2 Comments

Lori Sturdevant had a must-read article in the Strib over the weekend updating the status of the override six:

In all, six House Republicans dared to part company with Pawlenty and GOP leaders over transportation funding. For voting to raise the gas tax 5 cents by October, the Override Six were vilified by Republican mouthpieces, stripped of caucus leadership positions and advised to brace themselves for rough treatment by Republican voters…

Two of the six chose to end their legislative service. One is running as an independent. (Stay tuned for a wild fall in Edina.) One, Rod Hamilton of Mountain Lake, was embraced by his district’s Republicans. They can’t understand why anyone would take issue with a vote to fix a highway on which too many of their neighbors have needlessly died.

I think there are a lot of people across Minnesota who have difficulty understanding why the MN GOP is hell bent on driving the moderates from their party.

The most interesting part of the story, however, is Sturdevant’s profile of the conservative challengers opposing Neil Peterson and Jim Abeler. Don Huizenga, Abeler’s opponent, is already well-known on this site, but Sturdevant introduces him to a broader audience:

Huizenga allowed last week that he’s known as the “Vote No” guy on school levy referenda in his area, and “that’s given me a bad rap.” He says he’s itching to be elected so he can revamp public schools to employ fewer teachers and put parents in charge. During last year’s levy campaign, he posted a blog item describing the student achievement gap as “evidence of differing intelligence among different races.”

Amy at the DNC Tonight

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on August 25, 2008 at 10:10 am
, filed in General
. 2 Comments

Minnesota’s soon-to-be-Senior Senator will speak from the podium at the Democratic National Convention tonight.  I don’t know what the exact time will be, but from the looks of the schedule, I’d guess sometime in the early evening or late afternoon.  I’ll update when I know more.

Push Polling in the 3rd

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on August 20, 2008 at 10:32 am
, filed in CD3
. 17 Comments

Erik Paulsen’s pals are up to no good.

DFL candidate Ashwin Madia’s campaign says it has received numerous reports of so-called “push polling” from voters in the district. Push polls masquerade as scientific polls, but are actually telemarketing efforts designed to disseminate negative messages about a candidate.

In a press release the campaign said the calls “distorted Madia’s position on Iraq and falsely stated that Madia was impeached when he was the president of the University of Minnesota student body.”

Campaign Manager Stu Rosenberg sent a letter to his counterpart at Republican Erik Paulsen’s campaign calling on Paulsen to disavow the tactics.

Push polling is an especially unsavory campaign tactic because it involves several layers of deception.  The first lie involves the identity of the caller.  The person receiving the call is led to believe that the caller is an unbiased source when in fact he is anything but.  Second, as in this case, the “poll” itself usually consists of several lies.  For example, the caller might ask “Would you be less likely to support candidate X if you knew he beat his wife?”  Push polling is the worst of American politics, just ask John McCain.

Unfortunately, push polling is hard to combat.  You can go to the press, but reporters often want to report on the content of the call, which makes the whole effort self-defeating from the push-polling victim’s perspective because the press accounts will just spread the lie (just look at various mainstream stories written about the email rumor campaign against Barack Obama).  Hopefully the Twin Cities media will be more reasonable (as MPR was) and report on the existence of the push poll without insisting on reporting the contents of the call.

One last thing on this subject.  The Paulsen campaign has tried to turn this back on Madia by claiming that AFSCME is push polling against Paulsen on Madia’s behalf.  This is a silly accusation.

Eliot Seide, executive director of Minnesota AFSCME Council 5, says his organization is not push-polling in the 3rd Congressional District. He says AFSCME members are calling other AFSCME members, urging them to support Madia, and he says the phone bank script does not even mention Erik Paulsen.

Not every phone call a voter recieves is a push poll and the AFSCME calls certainly don’t fit the profile.

Brodkorb now a Paulsen “Spokesman”

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on August 20, 2008 at 10:16 am
, filed in CD3
. 8 Comments

Yesterday, the Madia campaign presented the Paulsen campaign with a letter from Campaign Manager Stu Rosenberg asking  Paulsen to condemn push-polling calls that 3rd District residents have been receiving (more on that later).  MPR wrote a story about the incident that contained a interesting little nugget:

Michael Brodkorb, who’s filling in as a spokesman for the Paulsen campaign, said Paulsen is not behind the calls, and countered that he also has heard reports of anti-Paulsen push polling.

Brodkorb disclosed a while back that he was doing paid work for the Paulsen campaign, but this is the first time I’ve seen him quoted on behalf of the campaign.  My previous understanding of Michael’s role on the Paulsen campaign was that he was working as a research consultant.  Now Michael has been authorized to speak on the record on Erik Paulsen’s behalf.  In my view, there is a big difference between these roles.  Anyone who has ever worked in campaign politics knows that the authorization to speak on the record in not given out to just anyone.  In a typical congressional race only one (and rarely two) staffers are permitted to speak on the record.  Erik Paulsen has entrusted Brodkorb with being the public face of his campaign, and that merits notice.

I called Michael a little while ago and he said that his position as Paulsen spokesman was temporary. He is apparently just filling in while the campaign is in between communications staffers.  And I want to be clear that there is nothing wrong with Michael having this responsibility and I also think that he has properly disclosed his paid work for Paulsen.  I just think that he designation as a Paulsen spokesman, even a temporary spokesman, is worth noting for future consideration.

Blog Day for Ashwin Madia

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on August 20, 2008 at 9:14 am
, filed in CD3
. 1 Comment

A few weeks ago, we participated in Blog Day for Steve Sarvi.  The event was so successful, the liberal blogging community decided to repeat the effort for Ashwin Madia, the DFL candidate in the 3rd Congressional District.

Unlike Sarvi, who is more of a dark horse candidate, Madia is running in one of the most heavily targeted districts in the nation.  Minnesota’s 3rd has been represented by a Republican for decades, but we’ve really got a chance to pick up this seat this year.

Lucky for us, we’ve got a fantastic candidate.

I feel extraordinarily confident in saying that there is no candidate running for office in Minnesota today that is working as hard as Ashwin Madia.  The guy is just a machine.  We’re not going to lose this race because of any failing on his part.  That means its all the more important that we hold up our end.  So take a moment and make a donation to the Madia campaign. Lord knows he’ll need every penny as he takes on the Paulsen/Big Oil machine.

As an added bonus, today is a particularly great day to make a donation to Madia.  August 20th is the pre-primary FEC filing deadline, which means that in just a few days we’ll be able to compare Madia and Paulsen’s fundraising numbers once again.  If you remember, Madia shocked the Minnesota political world at the end of the 2nd Quarter by raising $700,000.  Help him post another impressive number this quarter and make a donation now.

My Final VP Thoughts and a Call for Your Predictions

by
Zack Stephenson
Published on August 19, 2008 at 7:27 pm
, filed in General
. 50 Comments

Here’s what I think. Regarding Obama: Kaine and Bayh won’t be the pick. Those were just press games. Indiana and Virginia are two states the Obama campaign thinks they can win and those little boomlets won Obama a couple of days of positive press in each state. On the other hand, I don’t think its going to be a complete surprise either. At this point, I’d put my money on either Joe Biden or Kathleen Sebelius. The variable that remains unknown, however, is Obama’s trust level with each of these candidates. I have no special insight into the mind of Barack Obama, but everything I read suggests that he has a very strong relationship with Sebelius and just an amicable one with Biden. Also, the absolute radio silence coming from team Sebelius is telling in and of itself. I am, therefore, going to go out on a limb and predict that he’ll pick Sebelius, with Biden as my second choice.

As for McCain, I don’t think it’ll be Ridge or Lieberman. I think the McCain campaign’s confidence is high right now, and my guess is that he doesn’t think he needs a Hail Mary pick. He also doesn’t need to pick Lieberman. Like Zell Miller in 2004, Lieberman’s every move will be candy for the press over the next couple of months. His profile will be high enough to rival whoever actually is the VP nominee. There is very little to gain by putting Lieberman on the ticket (other than the scorn of the right). My money is still on Pawlenty, with Lindsay Graham as my crazy, out on a limb, second choice (hey, McCain and Graham are best buddies and I think McCain really wants to pick someone he likes).

Sean adds: On the Democratic side I think that the shortlist contains Bayh, Biden, Kaine and Sebelius.  My affection for Biden is already known.  I think that at his age, 65, Barack Obama knows he can get a team player and not someone looking out for his own future.  There is an increasing amount of chatter on the Republican side about picked Joe Lieberman and I think that Joe Biden is the Democrat best suited to debate Lieberman.  Biden’s tendency to say dumb things arises as unforced errors — in debates he has been forceful, direct and very compelling.  And I think he’s awesome.  So why no Sebelius?  Obama has been very pragmatic in all of the choices he’s made about his campaign so far and Sebelius would offend a great many Clinton supporters by putting a woman on the ticket that isn’t Hilary.  So my pick is Biden with Kaine in second.

On the Republican side I am just agog with the thought that McCain might pick Joe Lieberman.

Please God — if you’re out there, please hear my call and let John McCain pick Joe Lieberman — please.  I promise I’ll never take your name in vain ever again.  Well… at least I’ll try.

Joe Lieberman on the ticket might re-burnish McCain’s maverick and independent credentials, but it would also keep social conservatives at home on election day.  And John McCain cannot win with that key cog of the Conservative machine sitting out.  So my wish is Joe Lieberman, but my gut tells me Tim Pawlenty (who will get massacred by Joe Biden at the VP debate) with Mitt Romney coming in a close, but still no cigar second.

This concludes my largely uninformed, basically guessing opinion.