Editor’s Note: This post has been promoted to the frontpage; as such, all comments should be made there. This is the sixth of nine articles in Jeff’s Daily Liberal Mapping Project. These articles examine Minnesota’s voting patterns precinct by precinct, with data from the 2006 election. For previous articles, go here.
Finally, we get to the district everyone’s been waiting for: CD3, home of retiring moderate GOP Congressman Jim Ramstad. The district has been in Republican hands for 50 years, but now is considered one of the Democrats’ best opportunities to pick up a seat.
The 3rd District just barely leans Republican, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+1. I showed in an earlier set of maps how CD3 has slowly been turning more liberal. The voting map (below, left) shows that the district is split geographically: suburbs close to the central city have become quite liberal, while townships and exurbs at the edge of Hennepin County have remained solidly Republican.
That doesn’t tell the whole story, though. Ultimately, almost the entire district is a toss-up when it comes to the Congressional race because voters in the 3rd are very willing to split tickets. Volatility is a measure of variation across races. Precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters. As the volatility map (below, right) shows, almost every precinct has a volatility higher than the state median. That means anything can happen. However, I would say that Madia, as an Iraq War veteran and a former Republican, has a much better chance of reaching out to swing voters than Paulsen, the ideological former Majority Leader for the MNGOP.
Low turnout could become a problem for either candidate, but the turnout map (below, left) show it is probably a bigger liability for Madia. The inner-suburban districts where he is strongest have very low turnouts. In fact, in many precincts that had a Democratic vote of over 60 percent, low turnout has meant that 35 percent or fewer of eligible voters actually voted Democratic (below, right). These precincts are particularly important for Madia because most of them have low volatility. They’re unlikely to vote for Paulsen.
The strategy for Madia in this campaign should have two components.
- Win over volatile Republican precincts. Because there are so many potential ticket-splitters in the district, Madia can neutralize Paulsen’s advantage in Republican precincts with his fantastic story and command of the issues.
- Turn out the base. There are a ton of party-line Democratic votes available in places like Bloomington and Brooklyn Park. These voters need to be turned out in droves on election day, to ensure the widest possible margin for Madia. If he has kept the vote in the western precincts relatively close, the eastern precincts will carry the day.
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