Jeff Rosenberg's Diary

Jeff Rosenberg: Help El Tinklenberg run this ad

Published on October 25, 2008 at 11:07 pm
, filed in CD6
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I hope you’ll forgive me for posting this all over the blogosphere, but 6th District candidate El Tinklenberg needs our help. He has one of the most brilliant ads I’ve seen all year; unfortunately, it seems to be “web-only.” Folks, we need to help him get this ad on TV. Donate at his ActBlue page now!

The ad, posted to the front page of Tinklenberg’s website, asks: Have you seen Michele Bachmann? El then proceeds to spend 45 seconds hunting through the 6th district for her. The video is hilarious, and will surely tap into voter resentment over Bachmann’s absenteeism.

Bachmann has got to come home and campaign in Minnesota! Let’s help El Tinklenberg get this ad on TV. Donate at his ActBlue page now!

Jeff Rosenberg: Madia campaign to hold debate viewing party Thursday night

Published on August 20, 2008 at 8:45 am
, filed in CD3 and Local Politics
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Don’t forget: the first CD3 debate of the general election is this Thursday, 8:00 a.m., at One General Mills Boulevard in Golden Valley. Unfortunately, the cost to get in for non-TwinWest Chamber of Commerce members is $35. Too spendy for you? Well don’t worry; thanks to the generosity of the Ashwin Madia campaign, there will be another opportunity to watch the debate.

The Madia campaign will be hosting a free viewing party at their campaign headquarters. Here’s the info:

For those who cannot attend the pre-debate rally or debate, we will be holding a FREE debate watching party at 6:00 p.m. on the evening of August 21st at the office at 10200 73rd Avenue, Ste 116 in Maple Grove. RSVP at lpryor(at)madiaforcongress(dot)com.

Thanks so much to the Madia campaign for arranging this! This is another great example of Ashwin Madia’s generosity and his campaign’s openness.

To thank Ash and his campaign, let’s all be generous with our time as well. The campaign is looking for volunteers to rally outside the debate and hold signs. Here’s the information on what they’re looking for:

At 6:00 a.m., we will be holding a pre-debate rally. Hold signs, welcome Ashwin Madia to the debate, and show your support for Ashwin Madia for Congress.

At 7:00 a.m., there will be registration and a pre-debate continental breakfast. We DEFINITELY need people holding signs outside to greet attendees to the debate at this time. It is vital we have as many people as possible outside.

At 8:00 a.m., the 90 minute debate will begin.

We are asking individuals to hold signs outside the debate from 6:00 - 8:00 a.m., so that we can show all attendees to the debate that the 3rd Congressional District supports Ashwin Madia for Congress. RSVP at lpryor(at)madiaforcongress(dot)com

This is a great way to get involved and thank Ash. Please volunteer today!

Jeff Rosenberg: Precinct by precinct: a two-prong strategy for Madia in CD3

Published on August 11, 2008 at 3:33 pm
, filed in CD3
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Editor’s Note: This post has been promoted to the frontpage; as such, all comments should be made there. This is the sixth of nine articles in Jeff’s Daily Liberal Mapping Project. These articles examine Minnesota’s voting patterns precinct by precinct, with data from the 2006 election. For previous articles, go here.

Finally, we get to the district everyone’s been waiting for: CD3, home of retiring moderate GOP Congressman Jim Ramstad. The district has been in Republican hands for 50 years, but now is considered one of the Democrats’ best opportunities to pick up a seat.

The 3rd District just barely leans Republican, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+1. I showed in an earlier set of maps how CD3 has slowly been turning more liberal. The voting map (below, left) shows that the district is split geographically: suburbs close to the central city have become quite liberal, while townships and exurbs at the edge of Hennepin County have remained solidly Republican.

That doesn’t tell the whole story, though. Ultimately, almost the entire district is a toss-up when it comes to the Congressional race because voters in the 3rd are very willing to split tickets. Volatility is a measure of variation across races. Precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters. As the volatility map (below, right) shows, almost every precinct has a volatility higher than the state median. That means anything can happen. However, I would say that Madia, as an Iraq War veteran and a former Republican, has a much better chance of reaching out to swing voters than Paulsen, the ideological former Majority Leader for the MNGOP.

Low turnout could become a problem for either candidate, but the turnout map (below, left) show it is probably a bigger liability for Madia. The inner-suburban districts where he is strongest have very low turnouts. In fact, in many precincts that had a Democratic vote of over 60 percent, low turnout has meant that 35 percent or fewer of eligible voters actually voted Democratic (below, right). These precincts are particularly important for Madia because most of them have low volatility. They’re unlikely to vote for Paulsen.

The strategy for Madia in this campaign should have two components.

  1. Win over volatile Republican precincts. Because there are so many potential ticket-splitters in the district, Madia can neutralize Paulsen’s advantage in Republican precincts with his fantastic story and command of the issues.
  2. Turn out the base. There are a ton of party-line Democratic votes available in places like Bloomington and Brooklyn Park. These voters need to be turned out in droves on election day, to ensure the widest possible margin for Madia. If he has kept the vote in the western precincts relatively close, the eastern precincts will carry the day.
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Jeff Rosenberg: Precinct by precinct: CD4 would be better with McCollum’s help

Published on August 6, 2008 at 8:58 am
, filed in Uncategorized
. Closed

Editor’s note: This has been promoted to the frontpage; as such all comments should be made there. This is the fifth of nine articles in Jeff’s Daily Liberal Mapping Project. These articles examine Minnesota’s voting patterns precinct by precinct, with data from the 2006 election. Perhaps you missed Jeff’sanalysis of CD7, CD6, and CD5?

In this edition of the Daily Liberal Mapping Project, we look at the other central-city Congressional District, CD4. CD4 is the home of Betty McCollum, who has served the district since 2001. The district is pretty much a guaranteed Democratic vote, and it has a lot of similarities to CD5, which we discussed on Monday. However, because the 4th also encompasses a handful of suburbs to the north, it is less overwhelmingly Democratic. It still has a high Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13.

The 4th not only has a very strong Democratic vote, it generally has party-line voters. Volatility is a measure of variation across races. Precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters. As the map below shows, there are only a few districts with volatility higher than the state median.

However, like CD5, CD4 has poor turnout throughout the district, with only a handful of precincts where over 75 percent of eligible voters actually voted. This low turnout seriously harms the DFL’s chances in statewide races. The final map illustrates the above point clearly. This map combines voting percentages and turnout into a single measure, the percent of eligible voters that voted for the winning party. Looking at this measure, it is clear how Democrats’ majority in CD4 is diluted: only a smattering of precincts had a Democratic vote of over 55 percent of eligible voters, despite the fact that over 85 percent of votes cast were for Democrats. Fixing this problem could provide a huge boost for Al Franken in November.

Unlike in CD5, however, the problem may be less easily fixed in CD4. Keith Ellison is running a major voter registratraion drive in the 5th. In the 4th, not only is there no such thing, but McCollum has not showed any particular desire to help Franken. Without help from McCollum to increase turnout in CD4, Franken will need to launch his own Get-Out-The-Vote campaign there.

Jeff Rosenberg: Precinct by precinct: Franken needs turnout from CD5

Published on August 4, 2008 at 12:42 pm
, filed in Uncategorized
. Closed

Note: This diary has been promoted; all comments should now be made on the frontpage post. This is the fourth of nine articles in Jeff’s Daily Liberal Mapping Project. These articles examine Minnesota’s voting patterns precinct by precinct, with data from the 2006 election. Perhaps you missed Jeff’s analysis of CD8, CD7, and CD6?

In this edition of the Daily Liberal Mapping Project, we look at the heart of DFL territory, CD5. CD5 is the home of liberal Democrat Keith Ellison, the first Muslim to be elected to Congress. The district is pretty much a guaranteed Democratic vote, and has a very high Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+21.

The 5th not only has a very strong Democratic vote, it generally has party-line voters. Volatility is a measure of variation across races. Precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters. As the map below shows, there is not a single district with volatility higher than the state median.

However, there is one thing that stops CD5 from putting more DFLers in office — turnout. Turnout is poor throughout the district, with only a handful of precincts where over 75 percent of eligible voters actually voted. This low turnout seriously harms the DFL’s chances in statewide races. The final map illustrates the above point clearly. This map combines voting percentages and turnout into a single measure, the percent of eligible voters that voted for the winning party. Looking at this measure, it is clear how Democrats’ majority in CD5 is diluted: only a smattering of precincts had a Democratic vote of over 55 percent of eligible voters, despite the fact that over 85 percent of votes cast were for Democrats. Fixing this problem could provide a huge boost for Al Franken in November.

Keith Ellison’s “Explode the Vote” effort to add 20,000 new voters in CD5 is important, but only if those new voters actually vote! After his voter registration drive, Ellison — with help from Franken — should plan on a major Get Out the Vote operation. CD5 is also another place where Barack Obama can be expected to have huge coattails. Expect Obama to have a major impact on turnout among CD5’s large populations of youth and African-Americans., just as he has throughout his campaign. Depending on his impact, Obama could potentially tip the Senate race toward Franken.

Jeff Rosenberg: Precinct by precinct: Hope for Tinklenberg in CD6

Published on August 1, 2008 at 9:02 am
, filed in CD6
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Note: This diary has been promoted; all comments should now be made on the frontpage post.  This is the third of nine articles in the Daily Liberal Mapping Project. These articles examine Minnesota’s voting patterns precinct by precinct, with data from the 2006 election. Perhaps you missed my analysis of CD8 and CD7?

In this edition of the Daily Liberal Mapping Project, we finally get to a race with a serious Congressional campaign — the 6th Congressional District. CD6 is the former district of Republican Mark Kennedy and currently held by Republican Michele Bachmann. Elwyn Tinklenberg, a moderate Democrat, is challenging Bachmann for the seat. RealClearPolitics recently called Bachmann one of the most endangered representatives in the country, and but CD6’s conservative voting patterns mean a tough race for Tinklenberg. Handicapper Stuart Rothenberg labels the race “favored Republican”.

The district voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2006, and has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+5. Almost all of the precincts in the district, except those in the southeastern corner, voted Republican in 2006. However, less than half voted heavily (60% or more) for Republicans, which may indicate an opportunity for Tinklenberg to pick up some votes. MNPublius noted a while ago that being cross-endorsed by the Independence Party should help Tinklenberg close the gap. Al Franken, who is more liberal than Tinklenberg, should expect trouble in this district.

Another difficulty for Tinklenberg and Franken may be that 6th district voters are less likely than many Minnesotans to cross party lines. Volatility is a measure of variation across races. Precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters. As the map below shows, only a few districts have volatility higher than the state median.

There’s one thing keeping this race competitive — turnout. Turnout is moderate to poor throughout the district, with one exception — the democratic-leaning southeastern portion of the district. With John McCain heading the ticket for the Republicans in 2008 and conservatives’ enthusiasm at a low, turnout could be even more depressed. Low turnout from Republicans and high turnout from Democrats could make this race seriously competitive.

The final map shows the combined effect of turnout and party preference, and illustrates the above point clearly. This map combines voting percentages and turnout into a single measure, the percent of eligible voters that voted for the winning party. Looking at this measure, there are no precincts that had a high proportion of Republican voters. Democrats, on the other hand, are helped slightly by turnout. Just as McCain’s campaign may depress turnout further, expect Obama’s candidacy to drive turnout by Democrats. Will his coattails be enough to put Tinklenberg in the House?

Jeff Rosenberg: Precinct by precinct: CD7 (PROMOTED)

Published on July 30, 2008 at 8:50 am
, filed in Local Politics
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Editor’s Note: This diary has been promoted to the frontpage and any comments should now be posted there.

In this edition of the Daily Liberal Mapping Project, we look at the 7th Congressional District. CD7, home to Democratic Representative Collin Peterson, tends to be quite moderate. Peterson turned the district bluer with his election in 1990, and was a founding member of the Blue Dog Democrats, a moderate group which describes itself as:

a policy-oriented group to give moderate and conservative Democrats in the House of Representatives a common sense, bridge-building voice within the institution.

The district voted largely Democratic in 2006. Approximately half of the precincts voted over 60% Democratic, but about one third voted Republican.

However, nothing is guaranteed in the 7th, where voters are far more likely to split their tickets than the typical Minnesotan. Volatility is a measure of variation across races, and precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters.

The volatility map (below, at left) below shows that almost the entire district is full of voters willing to cross party lines. In 2006, the district voted 56% for Amy Klobuchar, but 54% for Tim Pawlenty. This has long been a safe seat for Peterson; the question will be how Al Franken fares with the volatile CD7 voters. In the more socially-conservative 7th, Franken must persuade voters to focus on his fiscal policies. CD7 readers, what do you think: will the 7th swing for Franken or against him?

Turnout in the district is fair; it falls pretty much in the middle of the state’s districts in turnout as well as ideology. The turnout map (above, at right) shows pockets of both heavy and light turnout scattered throughout the district. Of course, when it’s uncertain which Senate candidate the district will vote for, it’s hard to say whether this bodes well for Franken. His best bet would be a good internal polling mechanism to determine which precincts need t

Jeff Rosenberg: Our literally crumbling infrastructure

Published on July 28, 2008 at 6:54 am
, filed in Local Politics
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I frequently write about how Tim Pawlenty’s budget cuts have left us with what I call “our crumbling infrastructure.” Did you think I was just exaggerating to make a point? Well, check out this story from WCCO:

ST. PAUL (WCCO) ― Drivers heading north on Interstate 35E got a bit of a scare Saturday afternoon. A chunk of concrete fell off the Maryland Avenue Bridge in St. Paul and struck two cars. One car had damage to its hood, the other to its windshield.

That part of I-35E was shut down in both directions at 5 p.m. while the bridge was inspected. Inspectors said the piece of concrete that fell was a 4-foot by 4-foot piece of concrete that was 3 inches thick.

…

Last August, Maryland Avenue bridge was inspected and received a sufficiency rating of 77. If a bridge receives a sufficiency rating less than 80, it is eligible for federal rehabilitation funding. MnDOT said that doesn’t mean the bridge isn’t safe.

Our infrastructure is literally falling apart. And while the Republicans were trying to convince us that we should put all of our transportation fixes on a credit card, courageous DFL legislators authored a solution, with the help of the “Override Six.” The gas tax wasn’t popular, but sometimes hard decisions need to be made, and kudos to them for having the political courage to do what was needed.

The Pawlenty administration, on the other hand, continue to have a horrendous attitude about transportation. A MnDOT spokesperson acted as if the latest news was no big deal by saying “It’s basically the same type of situation as like when your sidewalk starts breaking apart due to weather and the salt and just the elements.” No big deal — 35E is just breaking apart. So here’s a question for all of you: are you willing to pay an extra 5 cents per gallon to stop 1200-pound chunks of our freeways from falling on us? I know I sure am.

Crossposted to the Twin Cities Daily Liberal