On their 5:00 newscast, KARE11 announced a “poll” conducted via text message. The question is whether people trust or do not trust the recount of the Senate race. Aside from the fact that these call-in type popularity contests are not polls at all, it appears that KARE11 has decided to follow Norm Coleman and the Republican’s lead in smearingthe process by raising questions before the results have even been certified. Asshats should not be running news rooms.
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Editor’s note: This has been promoted to the frontpage; as such all comments should be made there. This is the fifth of nine articles in Jeff’s Daily Liberal Mapping Project. These articles examine Minnesota’s voting patterns precinct by precinct, with data from the 2006 election. Perhaps you missed Jeff’sanalysis of CD7, CD6, and CD5?
In this edition of the Daily Liberal Mapping Project, we look at the other central-city Congressional District, CD4. CD4 is the home of Betty McCollum, who has served the district since 2001. The district is pretty much a guaranteed Democratic vote, and it has a lot of similarities to CD5, which we discussed on Monday. However, because the 4th also encompasses a handful of suburbs to the north, it is less overwhelmingly Democratic. It still has a high Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13.
The 4th not only has a very strong Democratic vote, it generally has party-line voters. Volatility is a measure of variation across races. Precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters. As the map below shows, there are only a few districts with volatility higher than the state median.
However, like CD5, CD4 has poor turnout throughout the district, with only a handful of precincts where over 75 percent of eligible voters actually voted. This low turnout seriously harms the DFL’s chances in statewide races. The final map illustrates the above point clearly. This map combines voting percentages and turnout into a single measure, the percent of eligible voters that voted for the winning party. Looking at this measure, it is clear how Democrats’ majority in CD4 is diluted: only a smattering of precincts had a Democratic vote of over 55 percent of eligible voters, despite the fact that over 85 percent of votes cast were for Democrats. Fixing this problem could provide a huge boost for Al Franken in November.
Unlike in CD5, however, the problem may be less easily fixed in CD4. Keith Ellison is running a major voter registratraion drive in the 5th. In the 4th, not only is there no such thing, but McCollum has not showed any particular desire to help Franken. Without help from McCollum to increase turnout in CD4, Franken will need to launch his own Get-Out-The-Vote campaign there.
Note: This diary has been promoted; all comments should now be made on the frontpage post. This is the fourth of nine articles in Jeff’s Daily Liberal Mapping Project. These articles examine Minnesota’s voting patterns precinct by precinct, with data from the 2006 election. Perhaps you missed Jeff’s analysis of CD8, CD7, and CD6?
In this edition of the Daily Liberal Mapping Project, we look at the heart of DFL territory, CD5. CD5 is the home of liberal Democrat Keith Ellison, the first Muslim to be elected to Congress. The district is pretty much a guaranteed Democratic vote, and has a very high Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+21.
The 5th not only has a very strong Democratic vote, it generally has party-line voters. Volatility is a measure of variation across races. Precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters. As the map below shows, there is not a single district with volatility higher than the state median.
However, there is one thing that stops CD5 from putting more DFLers in office — turnout. Turnout is poor throughout the district, with only a handful of precincts where over 75 percent of eligible voters actually voted. This low turnout seriously harms the DFL’s chances in statewide races. The final map illustrates the above point clearly. This map combines voting percentages and turnout into a single measure, the percent of eligible voters that voted for the winning party. Looking at this measure, it is clear how Democrats’ majority in CD5 is diluted: only a smattering of precincts had a Democratic vote of over 55 percent of eligible voters, despite the fact that over 85 percent of votes cast were for Democrats. Fixing this problem could provide a huge boost for Al Franken in November.
Keith Ellison’s “Explode the Vote” effort to add 20,000 new voters in CD5 is important, but only if those new voters actually vote! After his voter registration drive, Ellison — with help from Franken — should plan on a major Get Out the Vote operation. CD5 is also another place where Barack Obama can be expected to have huge coattails. Expect Obama to have a major impact on turnout among CD5’s large populations of youth and African-Americans., just as he has throughout his campaign. Depending on his impact, Obama could potentially tip the Senate race toward Franken.
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