Sincerely,
 MtkaDem

The ad, posted to the front page of Tinklenberg’s website, asks: Have you seen Michele Bachmann? El then proceeds to spend 45 seconds hunting through the 6th district for her. The video is hilarious, and will surely tap into voter resentment over Bachmann’s absenteeism.

Bachmann has got to come home and campaign in Minnesota! Let’s help El Tinklenberg get this ad on TV. Donate at his ActBlue page now!

Today is Ashwin Madia Blog Day and so as a supporter from pretty much the day the primary field settled. I thought I’d post a little bit about why I’ve been part of Madiamania for so long. It shouldn’t be two hard beacuse two blogs today, Ashin’s in The Hill and Howie Klein’s on DownWithTyranny, have spelled out my main reason pretty well. I’ve supported Ashwin Madia since the start beacuse he has courage.

Today in a blog for The Hill Ashwin summed it up in one line

It’s time for a little more bravery in Washington.

Ashwin Madia has the courage to take on the war’s biggest cheerleader, Joe Lieberman

Today, the Republican Party announced that the loudest defender of status quo policies on Iraq, Senator Joe Lieberman, will be a prominent speaker at the Republican National Convention in my home state of Minnesota. Senator Lieberman and I do have one thing in common. We’ve both changed political parties. I left the Republican Party in 2002 after it replaced “balance our budget” with “borrow and spend” and after we started a war without a plan for success; a war we did not need.

With all respect to Senator Lieberman, talking tough about Iraq is not brave. Bravery is not demonstrated through words but instead through action.

Ashwin Madia has the courage to oppose the recent FISA bill.

I am troubled by the House passage of HR 6304, the FISA Amendments Act of 2008. There is much we can do to prevent terrorism, but such measures do not require the sacrifice of fundamental constitutional freedoms which our country was founded upon. This legislation demonstrates the need for leaders in Congress who have experience in the military and in Iraq, and who value the rule of law as we fight the War on Terror.

Ashwin Madia has the courage to stand for full equality for all Americans.

Ever since the start of my campaign, I have been reaching out to members of the LGBT community in Minnesota. That’s because I strongly believe in full equal rights for all lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender Americans.

As a Marine Corps lawyer who served in Iraq, I was one of first attorneys to successfully defend a gay Marine from discrimination in the military. It wasn’t easy to stand in front of a jury made up of other U.S. Marines and argue against the military’s bigoted and shameful “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy, but I was more than willing to do so. I would I would be proud to serve alongside anyone brave enough to put on the uniform.

As someone with a brother who is gay, I would advocate passionately for passage of a federal hate crimes law that recognizes the disproportionate number of threats on a daily basis faced by members of the LGBT community. Existing law already extends legal protections for a number of vulnerable minority communities. Every day that we do not have this protection, LGBT individuals remain at risk.

I support same-sex marriage and full equality under the law. Civil unions fall short and seem to be a way for politicians to avoid recognizing all people as equal.

Lastly, it is unacceptable that our nation continues to allow a form of discrimination to exist in the workplace based on a characteristic that is just as inherent as sex, race, or disability. I support efforts to prohibit job discrimination.

I’m running for an open seat which had been held by a moderate Republican. But my opponent, State Representative Erik Paulsen, has been a vehement opponent of equal rights for LGBT Minnesotans for more than a decade. He led the fight in 2004, and again in 2006, to write discrimination into the Minnesota state constitution. He even voted to prevent equal benefits from being provided to domestic partners of state employees even though many of Minnesota’s largest employers already have policies that promote equality.

I have been endorsed by the Human Rights Campaign and by Minnesota’s Stonewall DFL (Democrats). I hope you will consider supporting my campaign in the coming days and weeks. We need pragmatic problem solving not people who put their political ideology ahead of principles. It’s time for a few more patriots in Congress and a few less politicians.

::

Those are just three examples to give you a idea of what Ashwin is about. Ashwin is a fighter, if we send him to Washington he will not disappoint.

We won’t get a great progressive like that in Washington by wishing for it. We’ve got to work for it.

Want courage in Washington? Donate.

The Madia campaign will be hosting a free viewing party at their campaign headquarters. Here’s the info:

For those who cannot attend the pre-debate rally or debate, we will be holding a FREE debate watching party at 6:00 p.m. on the evening of August 21st at the office at 10200 73rd Avenue, Ste 116 in Maple Grove. RSVP at lpryor(at)madiaforcongress(dot)com.

Thanks so much to the Madia campaign for arranging this! This is another great example of Ashwin Madia’s generosity and his campaign’s openness.

To thank Ash and his campaign, let’s all be generous with our time as well. The campaign is looking for volunteers to rally outside the debate and hold signs. Here’s the information on what they’re looking for:

At 6:00 a.m., we will be holding a pre-debate rally. Hold signs, welcome Ashwin Madia to the debate, and show your support for Ashwin Madia for Congress.

At 7:00 a.m., there will be registration and a pre-debate continental breakfast. We DEFINITELY need people holding signs outside to greet attendees to the debate at this time. It is vital we have as many people as possible outside.

At 8:00 a.m., the 90 minute debate will begin.

We are asking individuals to hold signs outside the debate from 6:00 - 8:00 a.m., so that we can show all attendees to the debate that the 3rd Congressional District supports Ashwin Madia for Congress. RSVP at lpryor(at)madiaforcongress(dot)com

This is a great way to get involved and thank Ash. Please volunteer today!

Finally, we get to the district everyone’s been waiting for: CD3, home of retiring moderate GOP Congressman Jim Ramstad. The district has been in Republican hands for 50 years, but now is considered one of the Democrats’ best opportunities to pick up a seat.

The 3rd District just barely leans Republican, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+1. I showed in an earlier set of maps how CD3 has slowly been turning more liberal. The voting map (below, left) shows that the district is split geographically: suburbs close to the central city have become quite liberal, while townships and exurbs at the edge of Hennepin County have remained solidly Republican.

That doesn’t tell the whole story, though. Ultimately, almost the entire district is a toss-up when it comes to the Congressional race because voters in the 3rd are very willing to split tickets. Volatility is a measure of variation across races. Precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters. As the volatility map (below, right) shows, almost every precinct has a volatility higher than the state median. That means anything can happen. However, I would say that Madia, as an Iraq War veteran and a former Republican, has a much better chance of reaching out to swing voters than Paulsen, the ideological former Majority Leader for the MNGOP.

Low turnout could become a problem for either candidate, but the turnout map (below, left) show it is probably a bigger liability for Madia. The inner-suburban districts where he is strongest have very low turnouts. In fact, in many precincts that had a Democratic vote of over 60 percent, low turnout has meant that 35 percent or fewer of eligible voters actually voted Democratic (below, right). These precincts are particularly important for Madia because most of them have low volatility. They’re unlikely to vote for Paulsen.

The strategy for Madia in this campaign should have two components.

1. Win over volatile Republican precincts. Because there are so many potential ticket-splitters in the district, Madia can neutralize Paulsen’s advantage in Republican precincts with his fantastic story and command of the issues.
2. Turn out the base. There are a ton of party-line Democratic votes available in places like Bloomington and Brooklyn Park. These voters need to be turned out in droves on election day, to ensure the widest possible margin for Madia. If he has kept the vote in the western precincts relatively close, the eastern precincts will carry the day.

• Growth removed from face?
• Older than The Zip Code, Nylon and Cheerios
• Confused about Iraq’s geography
• etc.

…but his relationship with his wife might be the most interesting of all! And by “interesting”, I’m sure I must mean something more like “disturbing”.

Monday, John McCain and his wife Cindy McCain made an appearance at the motorcycle rally in Sturgis South Dakota, where McCain’s speech was welcomed with applause as well as the revving of Harley engines. According to CNN “[John McCain] was surrounded by scores of beer drinking men and scantily clad women, many of whom were as thrilled to see the war hero candidate as they were to watch Kid Rock perform later in the evening.” In this fun environment, what presidential candidate wouldn’t think to volunteer his wife to participate in the debaucheries of a bike rally beauty pageant?

As reported by CNN and revisited by Ben Smith of Politico.com, John McCain is quoted as saying: “I encouraged Cindy to compete. I told her with a little luck she could be the only woman ever to serve as first lady and Miss Buffalo Chip.”

This pageant is apparently, “an infamously debauched event that’s been known to feature topless women” (and, according to an ESPN.com columnist who visited the rally, “occasionally bottomless”). Say what you will about topless women, my own concern is the beauty pageant aspect (unrealistic body image expectations, pitting women against other women, gender stereotyping and encouragement of unhealthy competition), the husband-volunteering-his-wife aspect (one should be able to make their own choice as to whether or not they wish to flash a crowd) and the questionable class commentary aspect of implying that no other woman at the rally is in any way qualified to be in the running for First Lady.

Frankly, this is just another example of John McCain’s disrespect for the woman he is married to. As brought to light by Cliff Schecter’s book The Real McCain, in 1992 McCain called his wife a “cunt” in the presence of several reporters. Yep. That’s right. Nope, he didn’t say “bitch” or “hoe” or any other of many offensive slurs, he went all the way to the end of the scale.

Here is a funny take on the incident, by the comedy writers of the “Public Service Administration.” You may want to wait until you get home from work to watch this one.

While a dialogue about sexism in politics was brought to the forefront when Hillary was in the race, it is important to remember that sexism is a very real social structure and these incidents are mere examples of its prevalence. These incidents are not uncommon, and nor should they be treated with the apparent indifference that some of the media is showing.

In this edition of the Daily Liberal Mapping Project, we look at the other central-city Congressional District, CD4. CD4 is the home of Betty McCollum, who has served the district since 2001. The district is pretty much a guaranteed Democratic vote, and it has a lot of similarities to CD5, which we discussed on Monday. However, because the 4th also encompasses a handful of suburbs to the north, it is less overwhelmingly Democratic. It still has a high Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13.

The 4th not only has a very strong Democratic vote, it generally has party-line voters. Volatility is a measure of variation across races. Precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters. As the map below shows, there are only a few districts with volatility higher than the state median.

However, like CD5, CD4 has poor turnout throughout the district, with only a handful of precincts where over 75 percent of eligible voters actually voted. This low turnout seriously harms the DFL’s chances in statewide races. The final map illustrates the above point clearly. This map combines voting percentages and turnout into a single measure, the percent of eligible voters that voted for the winning party. Looking at this measure, it is clear how Democrats’ majority in CD4 is diluted: only a smattering of precincts had a Democratic vote of over 55 percent of eligible voters, despite the fact that over 85 percent of votes cast were for Democrats. Fixing this problem could provide a huge boost for Al Franken in November.

Unlike in CD5, however, the problem may be less easily fixed in CD4. Keith Ellison is running a major voter registratraion drive in the 5th. In the 4th, not only is there no such thing, but McCollum has not showed any particular desire to help Franken. Without help from McCollum to increase turnout in CD4, Franken will need to launch his own Get-Out-The-Vote campaign there.

In this edition of the Daily Liberal Mapping Project, we look at the heart of DFL territory, CD5. CD5 is the home of liberal Democrat Keith Ellison, the first Muslim to be elected to Congress. The district is pretty much a guaranteed Democratic vote, and has a very high Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+21.

The 5th not only has a very strong Democratic vote, it generally has party-line voters. Volatility is a measure of variation across races. Precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters. As the map below shows, there is not a single district with volatility higher than the state median.

However, there is one thing that stops CD5 from putting more DFLers in office — turnout. Turnout is poor throughout the district, with only a handful of precincts where over 75 percent of eligible voters actually voted. This low turnout seriously harms the DFL’s chances in statewide races. The final map illustrates the above point clearly. This map combines voting percentages and turnout into a single measure, the percent of eligible voters that voted for the winning party. Looking at this measure, it is clear how Democrats’ majority in CD5 is diluted: only a smattering of precincts had a Democratic vote of over 55 percent of eligible voters, despite the fact that over 85 percent of votes cast were for Democrats. Fixing this problem could provide a huge boost for Al Franken in November.

Keith Ellison’s “Explode the Vote” effort to add 20,000 new voters in CD5 is important, but only if those new voters actually vote! After his voter registration drive, Ellison — with help from Franken — should plan on a major Get Out the Vote operation. CD5 is also another place where Barack Obama can be expected to have huge coattails. Expect Obama to have a major impact on turnout among CD5’s large populations of youth and African-Americans., just as he has throughout his campaign. Depending on his impact, Obama could potentially tip the Senate race toward Franken.

In this edition of the Daily Liberal Mapping Project, we finally get to a race with a serious Congressional campaign — the 6th Congressional District. CD6 is the former district of Republican Mark Kennedy and currently held by Republican Michele Bachmann. Elwyn Tinklenberg, a moderate Democrat, is challenging Bachmann for the seat. RealClearPolitics recently called Bachmann one of the most endangered representatives in the country, and but CD6’s conservative voting patterns mean a tough race for Tinklenberg. Handicapper Stuart Rothenberg labels the race “favored Republican”.

The district voted overwhelmingly Republican in 2006, and has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+5. Almost all of the precincts in the district, except those in the southeastern corner, voted Republican in 2006. However, less than half voted heavily (60% or more) for Republicans, which may indicate an opportunity for Tinklenberg to pick up some votes. MNPublius noted a while ago that being cross-endorsed by the Independence Party should help Tinklenberg close the gap. Al Franken, who is more liberal than Tinklenberg, should expect trouble in this district.

Another difficulty for Tinklenberg and Franken may be that 6th district voters are less likely than many Minnesotans to cross party lines. Volatility is a measure of variation across races. Precincts with high volatility are those that see a lot of ticket-splitters. As the map below shows, only a few districts have volatility higher than the state median.

There’s one thing keeping this race competitive — turnout. Turnout is moderate to poor throughout the district, with one exception — the democratic-leaning southeastern portion of the district. With John McCain heading the ticket for the Republicans in 2008 and conservatives’ enthusiasm at a low, turnout could be even more depressed. Low turnout from Republicans and high turnout from Democrats could make this race seriously competitive.

The final map shows the combined effect of turnout and party preference, and illustrates the above point clearly. This map combines voting percentages and turnout into a single measure, the percent of eligible voters that voted for the winning party. Looking at this measure, there are no precincts that had a high proportion of Republican voters. Democrats, on the other hand, are helped slightly by turnout. Just as McCain’s campaign may depress turnout further, expect Obama’s candidacy to drive turnout by Democrats. Will his coattails be enough to put Tinklenberg in the House?