Yesterday, I took issue with the conventional wisdom that the GOP would gain seats from redistricting:
The tricky question, which we can only speculate on until November, is exactly who moved into those districts. If the red districts grew, but filled with DFL voters, it’s a whole other story.
The Census, of course, doesn’t tell us anything about political affiliations. But there are certain proxies we can use. For example, minority groups tend to lean heavily toward the DFL (maybe because the GOP is trying to stop them from voting). One political observer explained to me why that’s important:
…yes, exurbs are growing but overall the majority of our population growth is minorities, immigrants, etc.
That means a few things. First of all, inner-ring suburbs that were once reliable Republican votes are now swing districts or even reliable DFL votes. Second, we can’t just assume that the exurbs are just filling up with GOP voters — some of them may be competitive.
Until November, we can’t exactly know the partisan makeup of the new districts. We know for a fact, however, that every single Congressional district has a larger minority population than it did in 2002. Here’s a chart from the redistricting panel [PDF] illustrating that:
As I mentioned this morning, Minnesota’s courts typically opt for redistricting plans that keep changes as small as possible while still getting the job done. The 2012 Congressional maps [PDF] are no exception. There are changes — CD3 gets redder and CD2 gets bluer — but the new districts are quite similar to the old.
Minnesota Congressional Districts 2012 and 2002 Comparison
This seems like just about the worst idea ever:
With just over a week to go before Michigan voters head to the polls, Mitt Romney is enlisting the help of one of his highest-wattage surrogates: Donald Trump.
The real estate mogul is preparing to spread his pro-Romney, anti-Rick Santorum message in a series of radio interviews this week on local stations from Traverse City to Detroit. [ABC News, via Political Wire]
It seems to me that for every 10 people Trump reaches, he’ll leave 9 undecided and turn 1 against Romney. Donald Trump is not exactly a likeable figure, especially after his abortive presidential run. Is Romney really that desperate?
Today’s the day: Redistricting maps will finally be released at 1 pm today.I’ll do my best to have some coverage of the new maps this afternoon.
What can we expect to see from the new maps? That’s hard to say. The two parties — Republicans in particular — proposed some significant changes to the 2000 maps. The courts, on the other hand, have historically sought solutions that impose minimal changes.
One bit of conventional wisdom I want to push back against in advance is that redistricting will necessarily be a victory for Republicans. We often hear that claim because, after all, population growth was higher in “red” districts. Doesn’t it stand to reason that the GOP will pick up a few seats?
I’m not saying that won’t happen. But it’s not guaranteed. The tricky question, which we can only speculate on until November, is exactly who moved into those districts. If the red districts grew, but filled with DFL voters, it’s a whole other story.
Outward migration to the suburbs and exurbs has been a constant for decades now. As that migration had continued, though, inner suburbs have slowly turned blue, and the balance of power has remained relatively stable. We won’t know the true meaning of the redistricting until election day, and I suspect at least a few apparently-red seats may surprise us.
The ultimate goal of a “Voter ID” law has always been a poorly-kept secret. Voter ID laws are all about stopping members of already-disenfranchised communities from voting. For example, these laws have been shown to hurt black voters disproportionately.
Usually, proponents of these vote-suppression laws try not to tip their hands. But occasionally, they slip. Minnesota Majority, the primary organization trying to stop Minnesotans from voting, had such a slip when they posted the offensive image to the right on one of their websites, implying that Black and Hispanic voters are committing voter fraud.
Earlier today, TakeAction Minnesota and several elected officials held a press conference denouncing Minnesota Majority’s race-baiting:
State Representative Rena Moran, whose represents a racially-diverse district in St. Paul’s Frogtown, Near North End neighborhoods said she was “sickened” at the images and called the photo ID amendment they are attached to nothing less than a “21st century Jim Crow law.” Moran said she believes “those that seek to fan the flames of racial division and fear hurt Minnesotans who are already hurting too much. These images are nothing more than scare tactics used to make sure people of color are further marginalized from public life.” [TakeAction press release (PDF)]
Rep. Moran is exactly right. The image above betrays Minnesota Majority’s true motivations — to villainize and marginalize communities who are already disenfranchised. And all to make it easier to elect Republican candidates in Minnesota. It just doesn’t get more despicable than that.
“When a man visits his physician to request a prescription, no politician looks over the doctor’s shoulder. When a woman sees her doctor, it’s a crowded room.” — CD3 DFL candidate Sharon Sund [via MN Progressive Project]
According to the Star Tribune, negotiators are close to an agreement on a new Vikings stadium:
Minneapolis, the state and the Minnesota Vikings have reached a tentative agreement on a new, $975 million stadium on a site at or near the Metrodome and on how to divide the costs, multiple sources said Friday.
Under the preliminary deal, the city would contribute $150 million in construction costs to the downtown Minneapolis project. The state would add $398 million, while the Vikings would pay $427 million. The city also would pay approximately $180 million in operating costs over the next 30 years, multiple sources close to the negotiations said.
For the life of me, I can’t imagine why our elected officials and civic leaders in Minneapolis could possibly want this.
Residents of Minneapolis will have the privilege of paying $330 million over the next 30 years to finance the venture. That means we’ll be paying higher taxes to subsidize afternoons of entertainment for hundreds of thousands of non-residents each year, the vast majority of whom will not spend a single dime in the city.
That’s not all, though. Minneapolis residents will reap the benefits of having a wasteland of parking lots on the edge of downtown. As we drive past the vacant lots, we’ll be filled with warm feelings thinking about the fun tailgaters have in those lots for a total of 12 hours a year. As an added bonus, we’ll also get to experience horrible traffic on Vikings game days.
Minneapolis City Council members, please don’t waste our money on this. Let’s send the Vikings elsewhere.
The outrage on the right over the Obama administration’s efforts to provide women with insurance coverage for contraception has been so surreal, I haven’t known how to approach it. I shouldn’t have ignored the story for so long, though, because it’s a big deal. So here goes.
Yesterday, the House oversight committee held a bizarre hearing, entitled “Lines Crossed: Separation of Church and State. Has the Obama Administration Trampled on Freedom of Religion and Freedom of Conscience?” At that hearing, a panel full of men, and not a single woman, tried to explain how it was their religious right to prevent women from gaining access to contraception.
Conservatives, let me explain how this works. Under the First Amendment, you have every right to exercise your beliefs. You do not have the right to impose religious law on others. Yet that’s exactly what you’re demanding.
One of the smartest calls Barack Obama made on the economy was saving Detroit auto manufacturers. With a million jobs on the line, the President refused to let the American auto industry disappear.
Given the auto industry’s renewed health — GM just posted its largest profit ever — it’s hard to argue Obama made the wrong choice. But Mitt Romney continues to say we should have let GM go bankrupt. It’s practically the only issue he’s ever been consistent on.
You can expect that to be a major contrast between Obama and his opponent (Santorum opposed saving GM too). Yesterday, the DNC released a video telling Mitt Romney “don’t bet against America.” The video emphasized GM’s return to record-breaking profits, reminding everyone that saving the auto industry was a colossal success.
The fact is, nothing sells like success, and GM’s success this year is a huge victory for Obama.
We’re totally building a streak here, folks. A couple more months of continuing good news like this, and growing consumer confidence will turn into a virtuous circle that will propel the economy forward.
The number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to a near four-year low last week, suggesting the labor market recovery was quickening.
Other data on Thursday showing solid expansion in factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic area this month and builders breaking more ground on new residential projects in January offered more evidence of a sustained momentum in the economy. [Reuters, via Political Wire]
This is really exciting stuff. I began my career just as the economy was turning sour in 2008, so I’ve spent my entire career to date coping with a crummy economy. After four years of pain, the recovery is going to feel great.
But as I’ve written a few times, we can’t back off now. We need to keep working to push the economy forward. That’s why President Obama’s budget has the right idea:
The Economic Policy Institute released an analysis today of the programs in President Obama’s newly proposed budget plan which are aimed at boosting job growth. All told, it would yield approximately 1.5 million new jobs in fiscal year 2012, and around 1.3 million in 2013….