OMG, you guys! Chip Cravaack is totally going to beat Jim Oberstar this November! For reelz!

An internal poll shows Chip Cravaack – the GOP-endorsed candidate for Congress in the Eighth Congressional District, within three points in his race against 17-term Representative Jim Oberstar.

The poll – by Public Opinion Strategies – was of 300 likely voters in the Eighth District.  It has a five point margin of error.

It shows the race at 45-42 Oberstar, with very few undecideds.

Man, where to start? An internal poll, with a tiny sample of 300 voters, the internals of which have not been released*, with a margin of error of 6 points**, shows Cravaack losing. Wow, what a coup!

The fact is, an internal poll by a campaign could be done for two reasons: It could be an actual poll meant to gauge the candidate’s position in the race, or it could be an effort to convince others (i.e. donors) that the campaign is viable. The latter is a better fit for Cravaack’s situation, given that as of the last filing period, he trailed Oberstar in cash on hand by over a million dollars. 

I’ll be charitable, though: I predict Oberstar will win in November 57 to 43. Most likely, his showing will be even better than that, but I’ll give his opponent the benefit of the doubt in light of this new earth-shattering poll. 

*I called the Cravaack campaign, trying to see if they would release the crosstabs. I couldn’t reach anybody, and I have not heard back. I might have a little respect for this internal poll if they would release the crosstabs to show that it’s actually valid, and not just an effort to raise a bit of cash.

**6 points is the proper margin of error for a poll of only 300 respondents, not 5 percent.