Yesterday, just as I was finishing up a post about how the anti-marriage amendment would be defeated, a new Minnesota Poll came out showing the opposite:

A year before they face the issue on the ballot, 48 percent of Minnesotans favor such an amendment while 43 percent oppose it. That falls within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

The results of the poll don’t worry me, though, for two reasons.

First, the amendment’s lead is well within the margin of error, making this a statistical tie. Add in the undecideds, and passage of the amendment is by no means certain.

More importantly, time is on our side. I stand by what I wrote yesterday: Progressives are fired up and ready to work hard against the anti-marriage amendment. Conservatives are hesitant to truly embrace it, as well they should be. They know it represents a view that is fading from our society rapidly.

Support for equal marriage is growing so rapidly, in fact, that I expect another year will buy amendment opponents another 2 percentage points. All polls show opinions shifting rapidly in favor of equal marriage. In addition, every year, our demographics shift in favor of amendment opponents. That’s just what’s happening naturally, without even factoring in a concerted persuasion effort by Minnesotans United For All Families.

Factor in what’s shaping up to be one of the best-run campaigns in Minnesota, and that’s another boost. Not only is this issue winnable, it has the potential to be a solid victory. I stand by what I wrote yesterday: The anti-marriage amendment will prove to be a huge mistake for the MNGOP.