There’s suddenly been a rash of polling here in Minnesota. A couple of polls had some bad news, but a new SCSU poll is a little sunnier:

The poll also found that the state is closely divided on a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage. It finds that 47 percent of those polled do not support amending the state’s constitution to define marriage as between one man and one woman. 44 percent support the proposal. 9 percent of those polled either refused to answer or were undecided.

Which should we believe? This poll, which shows opposition to the anti-marriage amendment leading, or the two that show support leading? Probably none of them. It’s still early, and all of the polls are within the margin of error.

What’s important, in my mind, is that the polls are all close. At this stage, that’s good enough. I believe support for the anti-marriage amendment is at its peak right now and can only decline. Support for equal marriage is increasing rapidly nationwide. More importantly, pro-marriage activists have a year to change voters’ minds, and I can much more easily imagine voters changing from a “Yes” to a “no” than vice versa.

That’s an important point to keep in mind: Are anti-marriage activists really going to win many new votes? Over the past decade, opposition to equal marriage has softened; some current amendment supporters will be willing to change their minds. On the other hand, those opposed to the amendment have already thought about the issue and decided on equality and justice. It’s unlikely their positions will change.

Finally, undecided voters are probably already leaning towards opposition. Since opposing equal marriage has been the “default” position over the past decade, undecided voters must already feel somewhat hesitant about that position. I believe at least 75 percent of them will ultimately vote against the anti-marriage amendment.

None of the polls have shown over 50 percent in favor of marriage. If you accept my reasoning that the vast majority of undecideds will break against the amendment, its passage already looks unlikely.

Throw in the fact the constitutional amendments require 50 percent of all voters, meaning that anyone who doesn’t vote on the amendment is effectively voting against it, and its passage looks even more unlikely. I’m looking forward to Minnesotans’ sound rejection of this bigotry.