January 1st, 2012
jeff-rosenberg

Predictions for 2012: Local Politics

I did pretty well with my predictions for 2011, although I was a little early on the Vikings stadium and constitutional amendment ballot questions. I predicted they would be passed in 2011. The Vikings stadium nearly happened and one constitutional amendment is on the ballot so far. I think those will be finished in 2012.

So what will happen in 2012? Here are my predictions; leave your own in the comments.

Legislative Session

  • This year’s session will be short, with very little getting done.
  • The “surplus” forecast for the coming biennium will disappear, but legislators won’t be forced to revisit the budget and make additional cuts, either.
  • Though it is a bonding year, a bonding bill will not be passed. Republicans will call it irresponsible borrowing, and incorrectly compare it to the borrowing they did to balance the operating budget.
  • In lieu of a real bonding bill, we’ll get a Vikings stadium.
  • The legislature will complete its work putting a number of constitutional amendments on the 2012 ballot. I predict we’ll end up with three.

2012 Elections

  • The DFL will retake the majority in both houses of the Legislature.
  • Chip Cravaack will be defeated in CD8.
  • All of our other Representatives will retain their seats. If Michele Bachmann decides not to run for re-election, which is likely, her seat will remain Republican.
  • Amy Klobuchar will cruise to reelection.

Constitutional Amendments

  • The anti-marriage amendment will dominate the 2012 campaign, and will ultimately be defeated.
  • A voter ID amendment will be placed on the ballot, and will succeed.
  • An amendment will be placed on the ballot to make it harder for the legislature to raise taxes — that will also be defeated.
  1. mnpublius posted this

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