Why 2012 is not the Republicans’ 2008
Ladies and gentlemen, things are about to get awesome. Two already horrible candidates are about to beat the tar out of each other until neither one has the slightest chance against Barack Obama.
The conventional wisdom is that in 2008, the long battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton ultimately helped Obama become a stronger candidate. I have sad news for the Republicans — the same thing is not happening in the Republican primary.
First of all, the 2008 Democratic primary built enormous amounts of excitement because it pitted candidates against each other who would not only make history, but were spectacular candidates. The Republicans can’t say the same; both Gingrich and Romney are fatally flawed. In fact, the primary has been characterized by extreme dissatisfaction with the available options.
Second, the Republican primary is already far nastier than the Democratic primary was in 2008. And you haven’t seen anything yet. Newt Gingrich has a clear guiding principle for his campaign now: if he doesn’t beat Obama, nobody will. If he loses, he’s taking Romney down with him.
Finally, Barack Obama used the 2008 primary to prepare himself for the general election in a way Gingrich and Romney have not. Obama learned to hone a message for the general election, while Gingrich and Romney continue to run to the right.
For example, in response to concerns over controversial comments by Reverend Jeremiah Wright in 2008, Obama addressed the issue by framing it in the context of race relations in America. He approached the controversy with a nuance that allowed him to satisfy the general public without appearing to be just a political opportunist. Gingrich’s handling of a recent allegation that he demanded an open relationship with his ex-wife is a different story. He excoriated the media and left-wing elite for raising the issue, a response that simply won’t satisfy general-election voters.
Still, Newt has made two extraordinary comebacks so far. Surely he’d be a formidable candidate, right? Let’s not forget why he’s had two comebacks:
- Every time he’s doing well, he loses focus, drops in the polls, and has to start over.
- Mitt Romney is so weak that Republican activists are looking for anybody who can possibly beat him.
So here we have two horrible candidates, bloodying each other and preying on each other’s weaknesses, without actually making themselves any stronger. 2012 is going to be a great year.



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