February 17th, 2012
jeff-rosenberg

More good economic news, pt. 312

We’re totally building a streak here, folks. A couple more months of continuing good news like this, and growing consumer confidence will turn into a virtuous circle that will propel the economy forward. 

The number of Americans filing for new unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to a near four-year low last week, suggesting the labor market recovery was quickening.

Other data on Thursday showing solid expansion in factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic area this month and builders breaking more ground on new residential projects in January offered more evidence of a sustained momentum in the economy. [Reuters, via Political Wire]

This is really exciting stuff. I began my career just as the economy was turning sour in 2008, so I’ve spent my entire career to date coping with a crummy economy. After four years of pain, the recovery is going to feel great. 

But as I’ve written a few times, we can’t back off now. We need to keep working to push the economy forward. That’s why President Obama’s budget has the right idea:

The Economic Policy Institute released an analysis today of the programs in President Obama’s newly proposed budget plan which are aimed at boosting job growth. All told, it would yield approximately 1.5 million new jobs in fiscal year 2012, and around 1.3 million in 2013….

This is consistent with the overal macroeconomic strategy of Obama’s budget: boosting demand immediately, while holding off on significant budget cuts until later in the 10 year window. This approach drives up job growth and would leave the economy at a much more robust level of output when the budget cuts finally do hit — and thus much less likely to falter again in response to those cuts.

This approach is absolutely right on. Over the long term, the deficit will be an issue, and we need to start identifying how we’ll deal with it. But that’s down the road — we need to keep our focus on jobs right now. Once the economy comes back, the deficit will shrink dramatically. On the other hand, focusing on the deficit now could kill jobs, and ironically make the deficit worse.

We are so tantalizingly close to a real recovery. Let’s not blow it.

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