Today’s the day: Redistricting maps will finally be released at 1 pm today.I’ll do my best to have some coverage of the new maps this afternoon.

What can we expect to see from the new maps? That’s hard to say. The two parties — Republicans in particular — proposed some significant changes to the 2000 maps. The courts, on the other hand, have historically sought solutions that impose minimal changes.

One bit of conventional wisdom I want to push back against in advance is that redistricting will necessarily be a victory for Republicans. We often hear that claim because, after all, population growth was higher in “red” districts. Doesn’t it stand to reason that the GOP will pick up a few seats?

I’m not saying that won’t happen. But it’s not guaranteed. The tricky question, which we can only speculate on until November, is exactly who moved into those districts. If the red districts grew, but filled with DFL voters, it’s a whole other story.

Outward migration to the suburbs and exurbs has been a constant for decades now. As that migration had continued, though, inner suburbs have slowly turned blue, and the balance of power has remained relatively stable. We won’t know the true meaning of the redistricting until election day, and I suspect at least a few apparently-red seats may surprise us.