Tag Archive for 'David Dillon'

New KSTP/SUSA Polls Even More Laughable Than Before

by Aaron Landry | 7 Comments

KSTP just aired their exclusive SUSA poll, which of course in the past has been a fantastic display of polling incompetency in Minnesota. This is what they published tonight:

CD6: Bachmann 46, Tinklenberg 45, Anderson 6
CD3: Paulsen 46, Madia 41, Dillon 10
Sen: Coleman 44, Franken 39, Barkley 16
Pres: Obama 49, McCain 46, Other 3

Regular MNpublius readers have seen a lot of polls and SUSA has always been the right-wing outlier. One reason is that SurveyUSA only polls people it knows are likely voters. The problem with that, is that in 2004 for example, over 20% of the electorate voted with the same day registration process. If there is a remotely similar situation this Tuesday, be mindful that SUSA would have not polled any of those people.

Another way to look at this is to compare KSTP/SUSA to other polls. Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s breakdown of recent polls on the presidential race in Minnesota:

So when Survey USA and KSTP say that Obama is only leading by 3, how far off might their polling for Senate, CD3 and CD6?

If you’re interested, dig into the crosstabs: CD3, CD6, Senate, President. Normally I consider the crosstabs are worthy of further analysis but I don’t feel like bothering digging into a throwaway poll.

UPDATE: Paul Demko at Minnesota Independent points to Nate Silver of The Plank and FiveThirtyEight:

Don’t worry too much about that SurveyUSA result in Minnesota, which shows Obama just 3 points ahead. SurveyUSA’s polling in Minnesota has been very, very weird all year; they’ve never shown Obama with larger than a 6 point lead in their likely voter model, and had McCain ahead in the state as recently as October 1st. SurveyUSA does not have a Republican lean in general, but in Minnesota, it has consistently had a huge one.

November 2, 2008, 11:52 pm | Category: CD3, CD6, MN 2008: Senate and White House '08 | Tags: , , , , , , , , , .

Rothenberg: CD3 Turns to “Toss Up/Tilt Democratic”

by Aaron Landry | 9 Comments

No surprise here:

Stu Rothenberg has moved his ranking of Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District from toss-up to toss up/tilts Democratic. The race to replace GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad features DFLer Ashwin Madia, Republican Erik Paulsen and I-P candidate David Dillon.

And in The Politico:

Darren White and Erik Paulsen were prized Republican recruits, House candidates poised to be the new face of the GOP on Capitol Hill.

But as the two head into the homestretch of their campaigns, GOP operatives say they’ll probably have to win — or lose — on their own. The money national Republicans earmarked for White in New Mexico and for Paulsen in Minnesota will likely go instead to protect GOP incumbents who once looked like locks for reelection.

Despite the negative tactics of Paulsen’s campaign, Madia taking the high road is paying off.

October 14, 2008, 6:55 am | Category: CD3 | Tags: , , .

KSTP/SUSA Poll: Madia 46, Paulsen 43

by Aaron Landry | 19 Comments

No wonder they are in panic mode. If you’re doing press releases denouncing negative ads that the candidate can’t even control and then on the very same day launching nasty, dishonest attack ads yourself, you must have seen this poll coming… (watch how KSTP words this):

According to a new KSTP/SURVEY USA Poll, Democrat Ashwin Madia leads by a slim margin over Republican Erik Paulsen, 46 to 43 percent.

That’s well within the margin of error of four percent, making it a dead heat, with Independence Party candidate David Dillon at eight percent.

This is extraordinarily devastating as KSTP’s polls have consistently leaned towards GOP candidates and KSTP’s owner Stanley Hubbard has maxed out for Paulsen (not that it matters, right?). Meanwhile, MPR’s Curtis Gilbert examines how honest Paulsen’s latest ad really is.

October 8, 2008, 7:48 pm | Category: CD3 | Tags: , , .