Tag Archive for 'Dean Barkley'

New KSTP/SUSA Polls Even More Laughable Than Before

KSTP just aired their exclusive SUSA poll, which of course in the past has been a fantastic display of polling incompetency in Minnesota. This is what they published tonight:

CD6: Bachmann 46, Tinklenberg 45, Anderson 6
CD3: Paulsen 46, Madia 41, Dillon 10
Sen: Coleman 44, Franken 39, Barkley 16
Pres: Obama 49, McCain 46, Other 3

Regular MNpublius readers have seen a lot of polls and SUSA has always been the right-wing outlier. One reason is that SurveyUSA only polls people it knows are likely voters. The problem with that, is that in 2004 for example, over 20% of the electorate voted with the same day registration process. If there is a remotely similar situation this Tuesday, be mindful that SUSA would have not polled any of those people.

Another way to look at this is to compare KSTP/SUSA to other polls. Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s breakdown of recent polls on the presidential race in Minnesota:

So when Survey USA and KSTP say that Obama is only leading by 3, how far off might their polling for Senate, CD3 and CD6?

If you’re interested, dig into the crosstabs: CD3CD6Senate, President. Normally I consider the crosstabs are worthy of further analysis but I don’t feel like bothering digging into a throwaway poll.

UPDATE: Paul Demko at Minnesota Independent points to Nate Silver of The Plank and FiveThirtyEight:

Don’t worry too much about that SurveyUSA result in Minnesota, which shows Obama just 3 points ahead. SurveyUSA’s polling in Minnesota has been very, very weird all year; they’ve never shown Obama with larger than a 6 point lead in their likely voter model, and had McCain ahead in the state as recently as October 1st. SurveyUSA does not have a Republican lean in general, but in Minnesota, it has consistently had a huge one.

Final U.S. Senate Debate Tonight: 7:00 P.M.

Tonight’s the final U.S. Senate debate. Might be the best one yet. Tune in at Minnesota Public Radio and as always, The UpTake is streaming video live as well is recording video of the debate and will have it posted shortly after.

UPDATE: This debate has been hot so far. The first twelve minutes were about the current lawsuit regarding Norm Coleman. I cannot wait to hear it again.

UPDATE: Overall, my favorite debate yet. The UpTake has video up now.

Did The Star Tribune Write Almanac’s Debate Questions?

Wow, what a show Almanac was this evening. Did anyone else notice the questions for the Senate candidates? Four nice ones in a row: they softball Norm Coleman by asking him to respond to how he got an endorsement in Esquire (of all things) and why Franken didn’t, then Eric Eskola gives a baseless attack on Franken on the second amendment (when Franken disagrees and asks Eskola to give an example, he can’t, then admits he’s only “seen a list”), then Almanac directly rehashes Katherine Kersten’s shameless and baseless attack regarding Roman Catholics. At this point, I was asking myself, “WTF is going on here?”

Then they asked Dean Barkley to address his thoughts on Franken on Catholics. I ask Eric Eskola and Cathy Werzer: WTF? 

I got thinking, did the Star Tribune write these questions? Maybe it was towards Franken’s benefit though to get the hardest questions as he was able to come out winning on all of them. I thought this was one of Franken’s best performances. Barkley was out of control nasty in the first half but I think he cleaned up somewhat in the second part. Coleman though? Not looking good. Especially during those catfights with Barkley. What’d you think? I recorded it and I’m going to watch it again now.

Rasmussen Poll: Franken 41, Coleman 37, Barkley 17

These polls are getting pretty consistent, don’t you think?

Franken leads in 9 out of the last 11 polls in October. The two where he is not leading are KSTP/SUSA polls. I presume that the small leads KSTP/SUSA gives Madia and Tinklenberg are underestimated.

10/23 Franken 41, Coleman 37, Barkley 17 (Rasmussen)
10/23 Franken 40, Coleman 34, Barkley 15 (Big Ten)
10/21 Franken 39, Coleman 36, Barkley 18 (Star Tribune)
10/19 Franken 39, Coleman 41, Barkley 18 (KSTP/SUSA)
10/19 Franken 41, Coleman 39, Barkley 18 (Research 2000/Daily Kos)
10/14 Franken 38, Coleman 36, Barkley 18 (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WashPost)
10/9 Franken 43, Coleman 37, Barkley 17 (Rasmussen)
10/8 Franken 41, Coleman 37, Barkley 14 (MPR/Humphrey Institute)
10/4 Franken 43, Coleman 34, Barkley 18 (Star Tribune)
10/2 Franken 38, Coleman 36, Barkley 12 (DSCC)
10/1 Franken 33, Coleman 43, Barkley 19 (KSTP/SUSA)

Star Tribune Is To Partisanship As Norm Coleman Is To Negativity

A fantastic write-up by David Brauer of MinnPost:

Star Tribune editor Nancy Barnes has told the paper’s columnists to “refrain from partisan political commentary in their columns … at least until after the election.”

“We’ve been talking about how we raise the bar in all manner of ways in the last days before an election,” [Managing editor Rene] Sanchez notes. “The bar is higher on stories that have allegations in the them; the bar is higher on the analysis we print. The bar ought to be higher for an array of columnists to ‘stand down’ on the kind of column that’s an overtly partisan take.”

Wrapping a political prophylactic around opinioneers blocks the very things they are hired to do — inform, analyze, and yes, provoke — just as public is tuning in.

Brauer includes the actual Star Tribune memo at the end.

Saying that the Star Tribune is going to stop being partisan less than two weeks before the end of the election after usually leaning to the far right this entire election cycle smells exactly like Norm Coleman calling off negativity at the eleventh hour. Norm Coleman has been dishonest about it and there’s no reason to believe the Star Tribune is sincere.

Perhaps they were reading MNpublius?

Big Ten Poll: Franken 40, Coleman 34, Barkley 15

Big Ten released a new poll this morning. (PDF)

Franken: 40.2%
Coleman: 34.2%
Barkley: 15.1%

Obama: 53.4%
McCain: 33.9%

Very Conservative 7.7% 
Conservative 26.1%
Moderate 40.4%
Liberal 17.7%
Very Liberal 4.6%

Overview of October polling in the U.S. Senate race:

10/23 Franken 40, Coleman 34, Barkley 15 (Big Ten)
10/21 Franken 39, Coleman 36, Barkley 18 (Star Tribune)
10/19 Franken 39, Coleman 41, Barkley 18 (KSTP/SUSA)
10/19 Franken 41, Coleman 39, Barkley 18 (Research 2000/Daily Kos)
10/14 Franken 38, Coleman 36, Barkley 18 (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WashPost)
10/9 Franken 43, Coleman 37, Barkley 17 (Rasmussen)
10/8 Franken 41, Coleman 37, Barkley 14 (MPR/Humphrey Institute)
10/4 Franken 43, Coleman 34, Barkley 18 (Star Tribune)
10/2 Franken 38, Coleman 36, Barkley 12 (DSCC)
10/1 Franken 33, Coleman 43, Barkley 19 (KSTP/SUSA)

Star Tribune’s Senate Endorsement: Barkley or Coleman?

Inspired by a comment from MinnPost’s David Brauer, I ask: when the Star Tribune gives their endorsement on the U.S. Senate race, who will it be, Dean Barkley or Norm Coleman?

For some background, the Star Tribune has not only gone anti-EFCA but even went “drill baby drill.” Also add that Susan Albright, the former editor of the Star Tribune editorial pages is now over at MinnPost and that the Star Tribune is now owned by Avista Capital Partners, a firm that invests primarily in oil companies and health care firms. And, well, because I can’t not mention it, Katherine Kersten is still around even though she’s batshit crazy. In fact, they put Kersten’s nasty, ill-informed anti-Franken tirade this week on B1 while they buried coverage of the Clinton/Franken rally on B4 while all the news stations gave it huge coverage on the 6 o’clock and the Pioneer Press put it on the front of the political section with a huge photo.

To be honest, I have no idea what’s up with their editorial board now but my guess is that their chances of endorsing Barkley are almost as good as the chances of them endorsing Coleman.

Remember when Tracy Eberly and the folks with Anti-Strib’s raison d’être was their view that the Star Tribune was left-leaning? For the month of October, the Star Tribune, or in their words, the “Red Star” was only explicitly brought up on Anti-Strib four times: three times to source the Star Tribune as trusted information and once to point out that the Star Tribune halted its debt payments.

I’d like to say to Tracy and Anti-Strib: You win!

Anyway, I digress. So who’s going to get the endorsement of the Star Tribune, Dean Barkley or Norm Coleman?

Photo by Blue Man

Star Tribune/Minnesota Poll: Franken 39, Coleman’s 36, Barkley 18

No surprises here. Included in the breakdown is an interesting bit about how Norm Coleman’s announcement to discontinue negative ads didn’t work.

Overview of October polls:

10/21 Franken 39, Coleman 36, Barkley 18 (Star Tribune)

10/19 Franken 39, Coleman 41, Barkley 18 (KSTP/SUSA)

10/19 Franken 41, Coleman 39, Barkley 18 (Research 2000/Daily Kos)

10/14 Franken 38, Coleman 36, Barkley 18 (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WashPost)

10/9 Franken 43, Coleman 37, Barkley 17 (Rasmussen)

10/8 Franken 41, Coleman 37, Barkley 14 (MPR/Humphrey Institute)

10/4 Franken 43, Coleman 34, Barkley 18 (Star Tribune)

10/2 Franken 38, Coleman 36, Barkley 12 (DSCC)

10/1 Franken 33, Coleman 43, Barkley 19 (KSTP/SUSA)

KSTP/SUSA Comes Out With Another Poll That’s Unlike The Rest

KSTP just aired their latest U.S. Senate Poll: Coleman 41, Franken 39, Barkley 18, Undecided 2.

I don’t have any more details yet but it is important to keep in mind that these polls have always leaned right. For example, it put Franken down 10 in the last poll, and that was way off then. This latest poll is fantastic news for Franken. Here’s a roundup of October polling:

10/19 Franken 41, Coleman 39, Barkley 18 (Research 2000/Daily Kos)

10/14 Franken 38, Coleman 36, Barkley 18 (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WashPost)

10/9 Franken 43, Coleman 37, Barkley 17 (Rasmussen)

10/8 Franken 41, Coleman 37, Barkley 14 (MPR/Humphrey Institute)

10/4 Franken 43, Coleman 34, Barkley 18 (Star Tribune)

10/2 Franken 38, Coleman 36, Barkley 12 (DSCC)

10/1 Franken 33, Coleman 43, Barkley 19 (KSTP/SUSA)

Quinnipiac Poll: Franken 38, Coleman 36, Barkley 18

Via Rachel E. Stassen-Berger, Quinnipiac/WSJ/WashPost released a new poll today:

Post debate, Obama leads McCain 57 - 34 percent with women, while men tie 46 - 46 percent. White voters back Obama 49 - 43 percent and independent voters go with the Democrat 51 - 38 percent.

Biden is qualified to be Vice President, voters say 80 - 10 percent, but Palin is not qualified, voters say 47 - 43 percent, including 49 - 40 percent among women.

The economy is the biggest issue, 58 percent of voters say. Voters say 49 - 34 percent that Obama better understands the economy, and say 58 - 30 percent that McCain understands foreign policy better.

Minnesota voters who watched last week’s debate say 57 - 22 percent that Obama did a better job.

In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Al Franken has 38 percent to Republican Sen. Norm Coleman’s 36 percent, with 18 percent for Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley.

It’s important to keep in mind too that Quinnipiac polls in Minnesota, like SUSA/KSTP polls have leaned right of average.

Here’s a roundup of the polling released in October thus far:

10/14 Franken 38, Coleman 36, Barkley 18 (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WashPost)

10/9 Franken 43, Coleman 37, Barkley 17 (Rasmussen)

10/8 Franken 41, Coleman 37, Barkley 14 (MPR/Humphrey Institute)

10/4 Franken 43, Coleman 34, Barkley 18 (Star Tribune)

10/2 Franken 38, Coleman 36, Barkley 12 (DSCC)

10/1 Franken 33, Coleman 43, Barkley 19 (KSTP/SUSA)

Did Coleman’s Suspension Last About As Long As McCain’s?

The Media On The Second U.S. Senate Debate

There was ample media coverage of Saturday’s U.S. Senate debate:

Star Tribune’s Mike Kaszuba:

“People are outraged. They’re confused and frightened,” said DFL challenger Al Franken, who added that he felt Congress “rushed into” the $700 billion bailout package it recently passed. “We have to hope it works.”

A nervous nation has watched as the Bush administration “was running around like a chicken with its head cut off,” Franken said.

…Barkley, who joked that he faced criticism from his opponents for the first time Saturday, took aim at Coleman and pointedly told him that “this whole economic collapse, it was on your watch.” Barkley added, “I’m going to pin you on that one.”

Pioneer Press’ Rachel E. Stassen-Berger and Dave Orrick:

Franken said Coleman has helped create the problems of the last six years and continues to be wrong on specific issues — from the war in Iraq to his economic philosophy to his criticism of Franken.

“I will vote no for certain things, even if 85 senators vote for it. … I guess, maybe I’m just, I don’t know, a maverick,” Franken said, drawing laughter.

The candidates also gave their take on a piece of art — a book, a movie, anything — that has had an impact on their public lives.

Coleman said his favorite movie was “The Godfather” but opted for John F. Kennedy’s book “Profiles in Courage” as his life’s guide.

Franken rambled a bit about his choice — the book Neil Sheehan’s “Bright Shining Lie,” which is about the Vietnam War.

And Barkley picked the 1939 movie “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington,” about a common man selected to become a senator.

Barkley stumbled a bit on his answer to another question — about a Supreme Court justice who most reflected his views.

“I can’t come up with one. If I do, I’ll tell you later,” he said.

Minnesota Public Radio’s Mark Zdechlik:

Throughout the debate, Coleman talked about his record of passing legislation through compromise. He repeatedly suggested that Franken would not be effective in the Senate, charging that Franken would not compromise.

Franken defended his opposition to some of the legislation Coleman referenced, including the 2005 energy act — which included major funding for renewable fuels but also billions in subsidies for the oil industry.

Barkley, once again, sharply went after Coleman over the senator’s “bringing people together” theme.

“I don’t like going after you Norm, but, you know this ‘getting things done,’ ‘bringing people together, I’m the guy that can get things done,’ … this whole economic collapse — not to blame you, but it was one your watch. You guys were asleep,” said Barkley.

Associated Press’ Patrick Condon and KARE11:

For Franken, it was a vow to put Minnesota’s middle class above special interests.

“This election isn’t about the three of us on the stage,” he said. “It’s about you, the people of Minnesota, who haven’t been getting a fair shake from Washington.”

All three candidates picked at one other’s previously stated views, and Barkley’s healthy third-place finish in recent polls apparently earned the attention of the front-runners as Coleman pointed out a potential hypocrisy in Barkley’s constant criticism of Washington’s deficit spending.

“Citizens Against Government Waste gave you the Porker of the Month Award,” Coleman said, referring to Barkley’s two-month stint as a U.S. senator after he was appointed by then-Gov. Jesse Ventura. “I say that in that you just can’t talk about what you’ll do.”

Barkley said he earned the distinction because of his support for a commuter rail project.

“I’m honored that I’m starting to get attacked. I was wondering when I was going to,” Barkley said.

WCCO’s Esme Murphy posted about it in her blog:

The most devastating moment came when one of the moderators asked, “What do you think is the greatest threat to our country”? The moderator went on to say it could be any threat, not just of the military kind. Al Franken went first and said the biggest threat was Al Qaeda, and that the Bush administration had squandered the past eight years pursuing the war in Iraq, instead of pursuing Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. At the end of his comments Franken ripped into Coleman for his support of President Bush’s policy in Iraq. 

Then came Dean Barkley. He said the greatest threat was the skyrocketing national debt. He lashed into Coleman saying “this happened on your watch”. Barkley’s comments echoed a recurring theme by Franken tonight, that President Bush had inherited the largest surplus in US history and was leaving office with the largest deficit.

Then it was Norm Coleman’s turn. Coleman said the biggest threat to our country was the “partisan divide” in Washington. Huh? Yes it is a terrible problem, but Coleman kept repeating this line over and over again throughout the evening. Is that really the single greatest threat facing our country?

It is true that Norm Coleman kept repeating his “bipartisanship” schtick the entire night. At the end the debate, Franken reminded people that Coleman is currently running two races: his reelection to the Senate as well as the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The NRSC, being the most powerful partisan attack and smear machine in the country. Kind of takes the wind out of those “bipartisan” sails, doesn’t it?

As well,  Norm Coleman came out of Yom Kippur deciding to not go negative. You know, because of the economy. What happened to that?

Another strange bit was Coleman’s opening statement that basically ripped off Amy Klobuchar’s favorite quote about Roosevelt.

I know I’m not a very neutral source on this but despite needing to be woken up to answer a question, not knowing of any supreme court justices he likes and having to ask twice if it was really his turn, Dean Barkley came in second behind Al Franken on this one.

2nd U.S. Senate Debate Tonight: 7:00 P.M.

We’re setting up here at Breck School. Tune in at 7:00 P.M. for the 2nd U.S. Senate debate: Minnesota Public Radio, KARE 11, The UpTakeC-SPAN.

A couple initial observations: there is significantly less room here compared to the debate in Rochester and I’d expect there to be even more people wanting to attend. Signs taped to pillars indicate there are only 100 general tickets available. Press accommodations are tight as well. Security is even a bit tighter: I went through two security guards and then had to be escorted to the media area by a volunteer. They likely are not going to allow the kind of line cutting that happened in Rochester.

There’s going to be a lot of energy in here for the biggest live event of the Senate race thus far. Tune in at 7:00 P.M.: Minnesota Public RadioKARE 11The UpTakeC-SPAN.

Rasmussen Poll: Franken 43, Coleman 37, Barkley 17

From Rasmussen Reports:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Franken with 43% of the vote, Coleman with 37%, and Barkley with 17%. This is the largest advantage Franken has enjoyed all year. A month ago, Coleman was up by a point.

Franken leads by fourteen points among women but trails by a single point among men.

Interesting is Barkley’s actual support:

However, a key factor in the race is that only 3% are absolutely certain they will vote for Barkley. If the election were held today, it is likely that his actual vote total would end up somewhere between the 17% who say they would vote for him and the 3% who refuse to choose one of the major party candidates as an option.

If those uncommitted Barkley voters and other leaners are added to the totals, it’s Franken 50% and Coleman 46%. This suggests that the outcome could be determined by which Barkley supporters stay with the Independent candidate and which choose to vote for one of the major party candidates.

Read the full story at Rasmussen Reports.

Here’s what the polls this month look like so far:

10/9 Franken 43, Coleman 37, Barkley 17 (Rasmussen)

10/8 Franken 41, Coleman 37, Barkley 14 (MPR/Humphrey Institute)

10/4 Franken 43, Coleman 34, Barkley 18 (Star Tribune)

10/2 Franken 38, Coleman 36, Barkley 12 (DSCC)

10/1 Franken 33, Coleman 43, Barkley 19 (KSTP/SUSA)

MPR/Humphrey Institute Poll: Franken 41, Coleman 37, Barkley 14

With October starting with the outlying KSTP poll that didn’t match any trends, a Star Tribune poll that matched the trends but seemed a eggadurarted, Minnesota Public Radio News and the Humphrey Institute released a poll that gives, in my opinion, what seems to be a more accurate snapshot of the race:

Two new MPR/Humphrey Institute polls show Democrat Al Franken went from 9 points behind to 4 points ahead of Coleman following congressional approval of the Wall Street bailout plan. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley’s support held steady at 14 percent, before and after the plan was approved.

It was actually two polls: one before and one after the bailout. Larry Jacobs:

Norm Coleman’s 9-point lead over Al Franken essentially disappears in the wake of the financial bailout that Congress passed. He is really suffering the consequences.

I agree this is true. We talked in September about how Al Franken had continually shown leadership during this crisis from announcing his criteria early and sticking to his word versus Coleman’s lack of communication with the press until he got his talking points and then just “running the play.”

Another interesting thing about this poll was its gauge of enthusiasm:

Jacobs said with such a close contest, turning out supporters will be critical to the candidates. He said an analysis of combined data from the two polls shows Franken’s supporters are much more excited about the election than are Coleman’s.

“About three-quarters of the Franken supporters are enthusiastic, compared to just over half of Coleman’s,” Jacobs said. “This could be a leading indicator that the turnout come Election Day will be much higher for Al Franken. That could be bad news for Sen. Coleman if these numbers continue.”

According to the polls, less than half of Barkley supporters are very or extremely enthusiastic.

Read and hear the whole story on this poll at MPR. They also made the full poll results available as a PDF