Tag Archive for 'John McCain'

New KSTP/SUSA Polls Even More Laughable Than Before

KSTP just aired their exclusive SUSA poll, which of course in the past has been a fantastic display of polling incompetency in Minnesota. This is what they published tonight:

CD6: Bachmann 46, Tinklenberg 45, Anderson 6
CD3: Paulsen 46, Madia 41, Dillon 10
Sen: Coleman 44, Franken 39, Barkley 16
Pres: Obama 49, McCain 46, Other 3

Regular MNpublius readers have seen a lot of polls and SUSA has always been the right-wing outlier. One reason is that SurveyUSA only polls people it knows are likely voters. The problem with that, is that in 2004 for example, over 20% of the electorate voted with the same day registration process. If there is a remotely similar situation this Tuesday, be mindful that SUSA would have not polled any of those people.

Another way to look at this is to compare KSTP/SUSA to other polls. Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s breakdown of recent polls on the presidential race in Minnesota:

So when Survey USA and KSTP say that Obama is only leading by 3, how far off might their polling for Senate, CD3 and CD6?

If you’re interested, dig into the crosstabs: CD3CD6Senate, President. Normally I consider the crosstabs are worthy of further analysis but I don’t feel like bothering digging into a throwaway poll.

UPDATE: Paul Demko at Minnesota Independent points to Nate Silver of The Plank and FiveThirtyEight:

Don’t worry too much about that SurveyUSA result in Minnesota, which shows Obama just 3 points ahead. SurveyUSA’s polling in Minnesota has been very, very weird all year; they’ve never shown Obama with larger than a 6 point lead in their likely voter model, and had McCain ahead in the state as recently as October 1st. SurveyUSA does not have a Republican lean in general, but in Minnesota, it has consistently had a huge one.

The Philosophy of Republicans in 2008

When Colin Powell Mentions You In His Endorsement

You’ve screwed up pretty spectacularly.

Colin Powell at a press conference this morning:

It troubled me. Those kind of images going out on Al-Jazeera are killing us around the world… This business from the congresswoman from Minnesota saying, let’s examine all congressman to see who is pro-American or not pro-American.  We’ve got to stop this kind of nonesense and pull ourselves together.  And remember that our great strength is in our unity and diversity and so, that really was driving me.

And here was Powell’s eloquent, powerful endorsement this morning.

How Close Is Barack Obama to a Crazy Delicious Breakfast in Minnesota?


This close.

In other worthwhile ACORN news, here’s a video of John McCain sorrounded by ACORN activists at a immigration rally in Miami in 2006.

(Obama/Keys picture via that paragon of verisimilitude, Michael Brodkorb.)

Tpaw Takes Swipe At… McCain?

Check out this exchange between Brian McClung and Tim Pawlenty from the Governor’s weekly radio address this morning.

McClung – People hear about other states and California is a prime example. Right now the state of California is asking the federal government for seven billion dollars in a short term loan to cover their costs. And people should know that Minnesota is not in that kind of a position. We’re in a strong position. The state of Minnesota has…

Pawlenty – For the moment.

McClung – For the moment.

Pawlenty – We don’t want you to sound like some of the political candidates where you say the economy is strong and it is not, Brian, it is not.

McClung – No that is not what I said.

Who said that Governor? Wow, someone must be bitter!

I’ve posted the short clip; it’s good for a chuckle. Click here to listen.

Economists Back Obama Overwhelmingly

The Economist did a survey (emphasis mine):

Our survey is not, by any means, a scientific poll of all economists. We e-mailed a questionnaire to 683 research associates, all we could track down, of the National Bureau of Economic Research, America’s premier association of applied academic economists, though the NBER itself played no role in the survey. A total of 142 responded, of whom 46% identified themselves as Democrats, 10% as Republicans and 44% as neither. This skewed party breakdown may reflect academia’s Democratic tilt, or possibly Democrats’ greater propensity to respond. Still, even if we exclude respondents with a party identification, Mr Obama retains a strong edge—though the McCain campaign should be buoyed by the fact that 530 economists have signed a statement endorsing his plans.

The detailed responses are bad news for Mr McCain (the full data are available here). Eighty per cent of respondents and no fewer than 71% of those who do not cleave to either main party say Mr Obama has a better grasp of economics. Even among Republicans Mr Obama has the edge: 46% versus 23% say Mr Obama has the better grasp of the subject. “I take McCain’s word on this one,” comments James Harrigan at the University of Virginia, a reference to Mr McCain’s infamous confession that he does not know as much about economics as he should. In fairness, Mr McCain’s lower grade may in part reflect greater candour about his weaknesses. Mr Obama’s more tightly managed image leaves fewer opportunities for such unvarnished introspection.

McCain: The Drama Machine

Michael Grunwald has a very entertaining and insightful article up on Time titled “Oh, the Drama! McCain in the Theater of the Absurd.” The article chronicles the insanity and absurdity that has been the McCain campaign over the last week. Like I said, it’s a very entertaining column and a pretty quick read, but for the impatient, here’s the punchline:

On Friday, though, McCain realized it probably wasn’t in his interest to let Obama have the stage to himself, so he announced that he was going to debate after all, since the stalled negotiations were now on track, although in fact the on-track negotiations were now stalled, but whatever. By the time he left Washington — some Democrats suggested this was no coincidence — the negotiations seemed to un-stall. The bailout now appears to be back on track for next week, and at the debate, McCain suggested that he supports it. The wacky events of the week went unmentioned, and McCain made a strong case for himself as the candidate of adult leadership. Which, if you’ve been paying attention to his campaign, is probably true if your idea of an adult is Terrell Owens, although Terrell Owens is at least capable of running in a straight line.

There is, of course, a serious point to all this mishigas. The last eight years may have been a geopolitical and economic disaster, but one thing they have not lacked is drama. They’ve been eight exhausting years, and when Obama talks about change, he’s implicitly talking about giving Americans a break, a timeout from grand history. It’s like those T-shirts during the primary: End the Drama — Vote Obama. McCain has tried to make a similar case in a different way, arguing that he’s steady and experienced while Obama is risky and dangerous. That case can get lost in his roller-coaster campaign.

Letterman on McCain

If you didn’t see it already, David Letterman had a few words about how John McCain was conducting himself:

Make sure to catch the part with CBS News. More at Minnesota Independent.

[via Wonkette]

Kabuki Theater: Not Actual Leadership (Updated)

John McCain announced today amid the roaring that is his vacuous campaign that he would suspend his campaign and get to work to help broker a deal on the bank bailout.  This is one of the more amazing stunts I’ve ever seen.

John McCain has said before that “The issue of economics is something that I’ve really never understood as well as I should.”  He serves on the Senate committee for Commerce, Science and Transportation, and while it has the word commerce in it’s title it has nothing to do with credit, housing and financial servicesJohn McCain has missed 64% of all the votes in the United States Senate this year, where was his leadership then?

So Senator McCain, before we go along with this little bit of kabuki theater, how about you tell us what you can actually do to help the situation?  What do you have to offer?

Just to go a little further, this morning at 8:30 Barack Obama called Senator McCain “to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal.”  Senator McCain schemed for 6 hours, called him back and said “Sure!” and then announced this stunt.

That’s not country first.  That’s McCain first.

How about you show up on Friday and try to show the American who will be the right person to lead them for the next four years, and leave the stunts to someone else, yeah?

Update: Demand the Debate 2008 we deserve it.

Update 2: This morning while Obama was waiting for a phone call from McCain about a joint statement, McCain was visiting with his new favorite heiress, Lynn de Rothschild.  I can only hope it was to get her advice on the economy.

John McCain has the Leadership Style of the Queen of Hearts

From uber Conservative George Will:

Under the pressure of the financial crisis, one presidential candidate is behaving like a flustered rookie playing in a league too high. It is not Barack Obama.

Channeling his inner Queen of Hearts, John McCain furiously, and apparently without even looking around at facts, said Chris Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, should be decapitated. This childish reflex provoked the Wall Street Journal to editorialize that “McCain untethered” — disconnected from knowledge and principle — had made a “false and deeply unfair” attack on Cox that was “unpresidential” and demonstrated that McCain “doesn’t understand what’s happening on Wall Street any better than Barack Obama does….

To read the Journal’s details about the depths of McCain’s shallowness on the subject of Cox’s chairmanship, see “McCain’s Scapegoat” (Sept. 19). Then consider McCain’s characteristic accusation that Cox “has betrayed the public’s trust.”

“Off with his head!” isn’t a good leadership style.  Barack Obama has shown the level headed leadership and patience necessary to handle a crisis — John McCain is bouncing around from failed attack, to failed attack.   Barack Obama has shown who is the real grown up here, and John McCain has shown that all those concerns about his temper and judgment are well founded.

Madia Has Momentum, Now is the Time to Contribute!

Ashwin Madia dominated Erik Paulsen in a televised debate yesterday. (Did you miss it?  Matt has a great post summarizing the key moment complete with video of the takedown.)  Now let’s keep his momentum going by contributing to his campaign.

John McCain is coming to Minnesota this week and the Madia campaign intends to mark the occasion by capitalizing on McCain’s most famous gaffe (so far).

At the end of this week, the Republican Presidential ticket will visit Blaine in an attempt to bring out their core conservative voters in Minnesota — and they’re coming right to our backyard. We know McCain, Palin and the rest of the Republican Party slate — including our opponent — are out of touch. In fact, McCain’s so out of touch he doesn’t even know how many houses he owns.

Let’s remind McCain how many houses he owns. Help us raise $1,000 for each house McCain owns.

This is a great opportunity to both tweak McCain and help Madia.  Don’t miss it. Contribute.

Unintentional Hilarity of the Day

From CNN:

Prominent Clinton backer and DNC member to endorse McCain

Lynn Forester de Rothschild, a prominent Hillary Clinton supporter and member of the Democratic National Committee’s Platform Committee, will endorse John McCain for president on Wednesday, her spokesman tells CNN….

In an interview with CNN this summer, Forester did not hide her distaste for eventual Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.

“This is a hard decision for me personally because frankly I don’t like him,” she said of Obama in an interview with CNN’s Joe Johns. “I feel like he is an elitist….

Forester is the CEO of EL Rothschild, a holding company with businesses around the world. She is married to international banker Sir Evelyn de Rothschild. Forester is a member of the DNC’s Democrats Abroad chapter and splits her time living in London and New York.

This is her house.

That is all.

Obama vs. McCain on Tax Policy

In light of the major news today and over the weekend, I think it’s an appropriate time to lay out the facts about Obama and McCain’s tax policies.  Now, let me note that given the ever increasing worry over the long-term prospects for a continued recession, I wouldn’t be very surprised if these policies change over the next two months, and I’d be very surprised if either candidate sticks to them in office.  That being said, we only have the information currently at hand, and this is as good a starting point as any.

CNN Money tackles this issue in an article, but the table to the right that they produce based on data from the non-partisan Tax Policy Center analysis of the candidates’ programs sums everything up quite well.  Let me pause to say something here: this is an independent and agreed to be credible analysis of the candidates’ policies; if we can’t agree upon the chart to the right as fact, or at least as a close approximation appropriately used as a jumping-off point for discussion, we’re not going to be able to have a very constructive discussion here.

I am, and have been for some time, a big supporter of Obama’s tax plan as illustrated to the right.  Over the last 8 years, the only segment of the population that has seen an increase in real, after-expenses income are the top 5% of income earners.  Moreover, the increase within this group has been substantial.  And while there’s no doubt that Obama’s tax increases for those making above $607K is substantial, it’s not until you get to the top 1% of earners ($2.9M and above) that you see a real hit (and let it be noted, that most of those making more than $2.9M a year, are making way more than that).  Plus, the hit isn’t really even a hit if you subscribe to the (I think legitimate) liberal talking point that this merely rolls back the Bush temporary tax cuts.

For nearly everyone making under $607K a year, and for everyone making under $227K, you see a tax decrease under both plans.  But if you make under $112K, you’re going to see a decrease of substantially more under Obama.

Now, here’s the kicker, and I think in light of our current economic situation, it’s a very untenable and irresponsible kicker:

Under both plans, all American taxpayers could pay a price for their tax cuts: a bigger deficit. The Tax Policy Center estimates that over 10 years, McCain’s tax proposals could increase the national debt by as much as $4.5 trillion with interest, while Obama’s could add as much as $3.3 trillion.

Which means we need more revenue, less spending, or (ideally) a combination of the two.  I would love to see someone force both candidates to outline what budget cuts they’d make; especially with McCain claiming he could find $1 Billion in cuts tomorrow…

Well, we know what Alan Greenspan thinks:

In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Greenspan argued that the country couldn’t afford the tax cuts being proposed by John McCain without an equally massive reduction in spending.

“I’m not in favor of financing tax cuts with borrowed money,” he said. “I always have tied tax cuts to spending.”

But the real question is what do you guys think?

New Obama Ad holds McCain Accountable for Ad Lies

This is precisely the Obama ad I’ve been waiting for.  McCain’s TV spots have gotten despicably dishonest:

Dow Plummets, Banks Fail and McCain Says Our Economy is “Strong”

Lehman Brothers has become the largest bankruptcy in history, Merrill Lynch just sold itself for half its value little more than a year ago, AIG is on the brink, there are over 100 banks on the FDIC’s watch list and the DOW is down (as of this writing) nearly 300 points.

In spite of all of this, however, John McCain told Florida voters this morning that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong.”

WHAT!?

On a day that many in the media are calling “Black Monday” due to the volumes of terrible economic news, McCain actually said that the economy is strong!

Expect to see this statement in an Obama ad soon.