Tracking Minnesota Politics Since 2005
A loyal MN Publius reader tells us the SD 32, 43 and 46 DFL had a barn dance over the weekend that was a big success. DFLers from all over the northwest suburbs came out to get their barn dance on, meet candidates and have a good time (I mean, check out these outfits, they must have been having a blast!) . There also was Senate straw poll. Results below…
Franken - 67
JNP - 20
Ciresi - 14
Cohen - 3
We’ve got a rash of polls this week. KSTP/SurveyUSA just released yet another poll which shows Al Franken and Mike Ciresi in striking distance of Norm Coleman. The m.o.e. on this poll is +/- 4%.
Coleman - 48%
Franken - 44%
Coleman - 49%
Ciresi - 43%
Coleman - 50%
Cohen - 38%
Coleman - 53%
JNP - 34%
This is the third poll this week that shows Al Franken and Mike Ciresi within single digits of Norm Coleman with the incumbent under 50%. It is not debatable, Norm Coleman is vulnerable to defeat by either Franken or Ciresi.
Mike Ciresi rolled out some big endorsements today, headlined by for Secretary of State Joan Growe. Despite leaving public life eight years ago, Growe is still a big name in DFL circles and her endorsement carries some weight.
Ciresi also picked up the endorsement of Assistant Majority Leader Melissa Hortman. Hortman, who was considered a strong candidate for the 3rd CD, is a rising star who represents a swing district.
Also on the new list is State Rep. Paul Gardner, a MN Publius favorite who beat crazy Phil Krinkie in 2004, along with State Rep. Rick Hansen and Hennepin County Commissioner Gail Dorfman.
All and all, some nice additions to the Ciresi campaign.
On the heels of yesterday’s bombshell SurveyUSA Poll which showed Norm Coleman tied with Al Franken and Mike Ciresi in head-to-head matchups, Rasmussen Reports released a poll last night in conjunction with the local Fox affiliate showing the two DFL candidates within striking distance of the incumbent.
Coleman - 46%
Ciresi - 43%
Coleman - 49%
Franken - 42%
Joe Bodell has a chart up which illustrates the hard truth for Norm Coleman, every poll released since July of this year has shown Franken and Ciresi within single digits of Coleman, with the incumbent below the 50% threshold.
These polls prove one fact beyond a doubt, both Ciresi and Franken can beat Norm Coleman. He is extraordinarily vulnerable.
A little (and by a little I mean a lot) more analysis on the bombshell Survey USA poll released earlier today is available after the jump. In case you missed it, the poll showed that Norm Coleman was statistically tied with Al Franken and Mike Ciresi in head to head matchups.
Continue reading ‘COLEMAN TIED WITH FRANKEN AND CIRESI #2’
Wow.
Survey USA just released a poll that has Norm Coleman in a statistical tie with Al Franken and Mike Ciresi in head to head matchups.
Coleman - 46%
Franken - 45%
Coleman - 44%
Ciresi - 44%
This poll comports with the overall polling trend in this race, which has shown Franken and Ciresi steadily gaining on Coleman over the last several months. Early in the year, Republicans made a lot of noise about Coleman’s large leads over the two DFL candidates, but we pointed out that Coleman’s support was weak for an incumbent and we predicted that the gap would narrow. During the summer, we saw Franken and Ciresi’s numbers surge to within single digits of Coleman’s. Now, Franken and Ciresi are tied with Coleman. Truely stunning.
Clearly all the momentum is with the DFLers at this point.
Matt adds: Wow. Just wow.
Mike Ciresi’s campaign released new endorsements this afternoon.
State Senator Ron Latz, (DFL-St. Louis Park)
State Senator Jim Vickerman, (DFL-Tracy)
State Senator Ann Rest, (DFL-New Hope)
State Senator Chuck Wiger, (DFL-North St. Paul)
and
Excelsior City Council Member Heidi Viesturs
St Louis Park City Council Member Paul Omodt
John Sullivan, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary Imation Corp
I separated out the State Senators from the other endorsements because they will be super-delegates, an important part of winning the endorsement, a feat that Mike Ciresi continues to say he’s working for. By my count Ciresi has somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 about half of what Franken has at last count.
Senator Vickerman is a 7 term incumbent from Tracy (Southwestern MN for our metro readers), a good pick up for Ciresi. I can’t say much more about the legislative importance of the other three (I know who they are, Latz won Steve Kelley’s seat last fall after a few terms in the house, Rest has served in the House and Senate for 20 some odd years and is the chair of the important Government Operations and Oversight committee etc.) but thats why we keep Zack around as he descends into Law School induced dementia. I’m sure he will have more to add.
We’ve heard of more Legislative and Organizational endorsements coming down the pike for Ciresi — and we look forward to seeing them.
Zack Adds - Yup, Vickerman is a nice get. He is key on veterans issues at the Capitol and could help with vets groups. Overall, these are some nice additions.
US Senate candidate Mike Ciresi released the following statement yesterday after the news broke that Norm Coleman’s approval rating has dipped into negative territory - only 43% of Minnesotans approve of Norm’s pandering and flip-flopping, while 48% disapprove.
“We don’t put too much stock in polls, but it doesn’t surprise us that Minnesotans have had it with Norm Coleman. Senator Coleman chooses blind loyalty to President Bush and his failed policies rather than standing up for the people of this state. Coleman’s decline is a result of Minnesotans paying close attention to our elected officials and in Senator Coleman’s case, when he is put to the test of leadership, he fails. His job approval numbers have steadily declined since April and now his disapproval rating is higher than his approval rating.
This is a good example that a strong leader who gets results for the average person like Mike Ciresi is needed in the Senate. Mike Ciresi is not afraid to hold the powerful accountable when they’re wrong. He did it when Tobacco, Chemical and Drug Companies broke the law. Mike fights for what is right and he wins when the odds are against him.
This Senate seat needs to be held again by a person who is willing to risk this Senate seat to stand up and do what is right. Minnesota needs Mike Ciresi in this Senate seat as he is able to see the truth, stand up for it and not be fooled by powerful special interests.”
Ouch.
Zack reported yesterday that both Al Franken and Mike Ciresi had issued letters urging Senator Coleman to reconsider his continued support for President Bush’s plans in Iraq. The Star Tribune has an article about the situation in today’s paper but despite the increasing pressure (and the moves of his Republican colleagues) Coleman declined to offer comment:
Coleman has supported the war in the past and has been sharply critical of opponents, but in recent months has expressed his own concerns about the war’s lack of progress.
Coleman was unavailable for comment on Tuesday, but released a statement that suggested a further softening of his once solid support.
“I remain deeply concerned about the President’s strategy and for American troops caught in sectarian violence,” Coleman said in the statement.
With Republican support for the war in the Senate continuing to fall and the nation yearning for national leadership in this time of foreign tumult, why is Norm Coleman remaining stubbornly silent?
With Coleman’s Q2 numbers already reported at $1.5 million and Ciresi at $725K, I was wondering how Franken could possibly beat Norm this quarter in fundraising. Well, looks as though I should have had more faith in the guy because this quote was attributed to Franken in today’s Bemidji Pioneer: “This quarter, I have out-raised Norm Coleman.” While Franken’s camp still has yet to unleash the full numbers, the article did provide some more details:
he said he has 35,000 individual contributors, with an average donation of less than $100. Meanwhile, he said, Coleman has received $650,000 since 2002 from pharmaceutical companies.
This seems to hold up to what I’ve been hearing tossed around over the past few days:
Who really knows though; I guess we’ll just have to wait in anticipation for the official #s to hit.
I had the pleasure of working with Alan Miller yesterday as he was the guest host for “Minnesota Matters” on AM950 and I was reminded of how wonderful his public access show, “Access to Democracy,” is. Unfortunately I don’t live in Eagan or Burnsville, but the magic of the internet can serve Alan’s interviews directly to all of us.
As far as I know these may be the first true candidate interviews of the ‘08 Senate cycle; so, without further ado, here you go:
Al:
Mike:
I’m new to this whole internets thing well, okay, at least to having a vicious Editor in Chief like Matt breathing down my neck for content everyday. Antagonizing online is something I’ve done for a long time.
But in my search for something to write about I was struck by this post on MYDD. MYDD for those who don’t know is one of the bigger national blogs, a venue I would like to think is full of well informed commentary etc.
I was wrong.
Continue reading ‘DFL Senate Field: “We Got Hated On By MYDD”’
Mike Ciresi has earned the endorsement of five DFL House members: Rep. Tom Huntley (DFL-Duluth), Rep. Steve Simon (DFL-St. Louis Park), Rep. Erin Murphy (DFL-St. Paul), Rep. Ken Tschumpher (DFL-La Crescent) and Rep. Ryan Winkler (DFL-Golden Valley).
Since many of you probably don’t recognize those names, here is some information on each:
Huntley is chair of the Health and Human Services Finance Division (and the House author of the Smoking Ban), Simon is an Assistant Majority Leader, Murphy was formerly the Executive Director of the Minnesota Nurses Association, Tschumper is a dairy farmer, and Winkler went to Harvard (take that Dartmouth).
Huntley’s endorsement is a minor coup. Overall, this list is not overwhelming in its size (in fact, if this is the extent of Ciresi’s committed House support, this is disappointing to say the least) but all the members on it are well respected in the caucus. Three of the members are freshmen (Murphy, Tschumper and Winkler) and normally I would not put a lot of weight on a freshman endorsement, but about a third of the House DFL Caucus are freshmen and they have more influence than the typical class.
Earlier today, I showed how the new MPR poll shows Norm Coleman’s weakness heading into the 2008 election. The poll, however, also says good things about Franken and Ciresi.
Again, I am aware that they both trail Coleman by double digits. If you look past the headline and actually examine the data, however, you will understand my optimism.
MDE is quick to note that only about 55-60% of DFLers backed Franken and Ciresi in the MPR poll. Truth is, this is why the head to head match ups look so bad and also why Ciresi and Franken should not be troubled by the poll.
If Ciresi and Franken received the same level of support among Democrats that Coleman gets from Republicans, this race would be in the single digits (and Coleman would be under 50%). More to the point, neither of them will have any trouble shoring up support about DFLers. By the time 2008 rolls around, both will garner 85%+ of Democrats.
Much more important is the fact that Norm is below 50% (though just barely) among independents against both Ciresi and Franken. And this is before most voters even know who these guys are.
Take Ciresi for example. The MPR poll showed that 35% of Minnesotans don’t know who he is and another 34% don’t know enough about him to have an opinion.
So rejoice if you will, my Republican friends.
Senate candidate Mike Ciresi unveiled his YouTube Channel this week and among the slew of clips from his announcement speech is a video of Congresswoman Betty McCollum endorsing Ciresi. I find her endorsement a very interesting one politically because it comes so early in the race.
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