We’ve been tipped off that Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has a new poll showing Senator Terri Bonoff winning against Eric Paulsen 44-40 in a head-to-head match in the 3rd while Ashwin Madia would lose to Paulsen 43-40. It’s difficult to know exactly what these numbers mean (or don’t mean) without more data on the poll itself. So, we’ll just have to wait for an official release of the numbers before we can provide any substantive analysis.
UPDATE: The official release on the poll from the Bonoff campaign clears some things up:
According to a poll conducted this week of likely general election voters, Terri Bonoff is the Democrat who can defeat Republican Erik Paulsen in November. In a head-to-head matchup, Bonoff beats Paulsen by a margin on 44% to 40%. In a hypothetical contest between Paulsen and Bonoff’s primary opponent, Ashwin Madia, the results flip, with Paulsen defeating Madia 43-40%.
The poll, conducted by Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research, from March 11-12 of 401 likely voters in the 3rd District shows Bonoff winning by 4 points in a head-to-head matchup against Erik Paulsen. Terri leads Madia among Independent voters, 37-30, and attracts 88% of the Democratic base.
UPDATE X2: So, now that we have some more info in the poll, analysis time! First of all, I think this poll is tremendous news for the DFL all around. Paulsen is a more established name in the district, the district does have a Republican index (although it’s dang close), and the district has been represented by a Republican for eons. So, for Bonoff to come out ahead and Madia to be so close is good news. Moreover, the poll was done on registered voters which, assuming Obama is the nominee, should actually undercount dems this cycle.
All that being said, both candidates are likely within the margin of error (which I can’t seem to find anywhere) given that the poll reached 401 adults.
Which brings me to the dem-on-dem action here: Frankly, I think it’s a wash. This poll was commissioned by the Bonoff campaign, and contrary to what many think, that doesn’t mean that it isn’t a valid poll (pollers don’t make money to give campaigns bad info). But it does mean that the Bonoff campaign controlled the circumstances under which it was commissioned and released. I really think both candidates are excellent choices in this race, so I don’t mean to be deflating the Bonoff campaign’s balloon here, but with her greater name recognition in the district (if from nothing more than 2 cycles of lawn signs) I think this poll is a little underwhelming for her.
Bottom line: Polls aren’t all that informative this far out in a Congressional race. People just aren’t paying close enough attention at this point; especially with a contentious Senate and Presidential race dominating the news. But, it’s nice info, nonetheless.
Apparently Jim Hovland, mayor of Edina, announced today at the business dems lunch that he will be exiting the race for Jim Ramstad’s 3rd Congressional District seat.
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