A Public Policy Polling poll [PDF] released on Friday showed once again the constitutional amendment that would ban equal marriage in Minnesota will be extraordinarily close. The bad news is that the poll currently shows the amendment ahead. There’s a lot of good news, too, though.

Q2. Should the Minnesota Constitution be amended to provide that only a union of one man and one woman shall be valid or recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?

• Yes: 48% 
• No: 44% 
• Not sure: 8% 

The amendment, while ahead, is within the margin of error. It also currently doesn’t have the 50 percent it would need to pass. All constitutional amendments must receive 50 percent of all votes cast, so not voting is the equivalent of a “no” vote. As I’ve written before, I believe the amendment will only lose support, not gain it, and undecideds will break heavily against the amendment.

There’s more good news, too. Minnesotans overwhelmingly support legal recognition of same-sex unions. When asked about civil unions as well as marriage, a whopping 71 percent support some form of legal union. I’d be quite surprised if at least some of the folks who support civil unions couldn’t be brought to support equal marriage.

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The results from the annual State Fair surveys are in, and they show that Minnesotans reject nearly every aspect of the MNGOP’s agenda. In particular, fairgoers were overwhelmingly against the anti-marriage amendment that will be on the ballot next year:

2. Should the state constitution be amended to define marriage as “only a union of one man and one woman?” This question will be on the November 2012 ballot.

Yes………………………………………..29.8%…………… (3,743)

No…………………………………………66.5%…………… (8,345)

Undecided/No Opinion……………3.7%……………….. (461)

This needs to be taken with a grain of salt, because the survey is given to anyone who wants to take it, and is not scientific. But it’s certainly a good sign that Minnesotans don’t support the MNGOP’s attacks on civil rights.

For full results, here are the surveys from the House [PDF] and Senate [PDF].

Rep. Ryan Winkler (DFL-Golden Valley) sent a letter [PDF] yesterday to the MN Chamber of Commerce and MN Business Partnership asking them to join the fight for equal marriage. Winkler makes an excellent point: a constitutional ban on marriage could actually harm these businesses’ recruitment. 

In Minnesota, 70% of Fortune 500 companies offer domestic partnership benefits to same-sex couples and families. Nearly every company in Minnesota whose brand is well known offers these benefits, with a total of more than 290 Minnesota employers offering domestic partner benefits.

Minnesota’s economy relies on a talented, educated workforce. The ability to recruit individuals with these qualities is crucial for our state’s businesses. In the United States, more than twenty states and metropolitan jurisdictions that compete economically with Minnesota recognize same-sex couples and families, and fourteen offer full recognition of these families’ rights. Of course Minnesota’s businesses compete globally—and thirty nine countries offer full recognition of same-sex couples’s rights.

In this competitive environment, Minnesota businesses will be harmed if a prohibition on marriage equality is made part of our constitution. We write to request your leadership in stopping this misguided proposal. Minnesota’s business leaders have understandably weighed in on tax and regulation issues that affect competitiveness. Similarly, we ask that you send a strong message to the Legislature that the same-sex marriage amendment is bad for business.

My first thought: I wonder how Target will respond.

People who oppose equal marriage have always been on the wrong side of history. Throughout America’s history, we have always moved toward greater tolerance and more civil liberties, not the other way around. In the long run, GLBT rights and equal marriage will not be an exception.

While political progress has been slow, Americans’ views toward equal marriage have changed rapidly over the past two decades, and tolerance is gaining. According to the biennial General Social Survey, 2010 finally marked the point at which a majority of Americans approve of same-sex marriage.

The pace of the change is absolutely stunning, and it means good things for civil rights.

Support of same-sex unions, 1988-2010: Darren Sherkat, via the American Independent